So why does changing one's mind always invite suspicion?
A few games ago, (1b, maybe? I forget), there was a lynch-or-lose situation (I was townie). I was looking at people's tendencies, and came up with this convoluted analysis at 3am to try and figure out who to vote for (Murtach, I think). I posted it, all was good.
Then, the next morning (or possibly later that night- insomnia, bleh), I realized I was an idiot. I wrote ANOTHER analysis, describing my mistakes and what my NEW vote was.
The fact that I had simply changed my mind was quickly seized upon by White Flame (a DF in that game), and nearly turned against me. Luckily, his ally DF had been extremely quiet, so we managed to go with my candidate.
Anyway, the point is, changing your mind after being persuaded by another(such as I did when I backed off of F-T) or changing your mind on your own, is not in itself indicitive of Scum.
A few games ago, (1b, maybe? I forget), there was a lynch-or-lose situation (I was townie). I was looking at people's tendencies, and came up with this convoluted analysis at 3am to try and figure out who to vote for (Murtach, I think). I posted it, all was good.
Then, the next morning (or possibly later that night- insomnia, bleh), I realized I was an idiot. I wrote ANOTHER analysis, describing my mistakes and what my NEW vote was.
The fact that I had simply changed my mind was quickly seized upon by White Flame (a DF in that game), and nearly turned against me. Luckily, his ally DF had been extremely quiet, so we managed to go with my candidate.
Anyway, the point is, changing your mind after being persuaded by another(such as I did when I backed off of F-T) or changing your mind on your own, is not in itself indicitive of Scum.
It's interesting because as you say, people make mistakes and change their minds. That's the main reason why I try not to deal in absolutes (i.e. apply a particular strategy to a particular situation every time) - it's better to just evaluate things for what they are in the here and now. If you make a blanket statement chances are that you're going to end up eating your words or being called a hypocrite. But different situations call for different tactics, and so on and so forth. I usually try to give people the benefit of the doubt for that reason ... I have a tendency to change my mind too.
Waffle-y voting can be pretty indicative of a Darkfriend, however, particularly waffling back and forth between votes without any real explanation. To use your example (and I didn't play in this game, so I might be describing this wrong): you posted long explanations of why you were voting the way you were and why you had changed your mind. If you give good reasons for your change, a real townie is probably not going to call you out for it - the movement against you in the game you reference was led by a Darkfriend.
Changing votes rapidly without good reasons, however, is viewed as extremely suspicious rightly so. A DF isn't going to list good reasons for voting the way they do that because they don't have good reasons (that are acceptable to the town anyway. ) So Darkfriends will switch between likely candidates, searching for the one that the other townies will vote for too. And, to be frank, this is what it looks like you're doing right now - switching around to whomever you think it's going to be easiest to lynch without giving a good explanation for why. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt right now because there aren't really any good reasons out there to vote for anyone (though actually, the evidence behind yourself is growing rather rapidly) ... all we've got is circumstantial in the extreme.
If I was a DF, I submit that instead of this rigamarole, I would have posted less aggressively, waited for someone to put forth a candidate, and be the third to vote. None of this passive-agressive "this guy sets off my alarms" nonsense that I've been doing while trying to decide whom to vote for.
I would point out that passive-aggression is a popular Darkfriend technique. Being overtly aggressive can get a DF into very hot water the next day when the individual they led the Town against turns out to be kind of not evil. It kind of puts you in the spotlight. This is why DFs do tend to stick to the third vote like you've said. In this instance though, I think that particular brand of passive-aggression sticks out like leading a lynch since there's so little else to go on.
Anyway! /rant
So to sum up, you're kind of my main candidate right now. It's not really any one thing, but a combination of a lot of different factors. There's the vote waffling. There's your denial of suggesting we lynch Ranagrande even though you clearly did suggest that very thing - usually I favor lynching liars on principal, but this is kind of a small thing. You're also getting really, really defensive, which is starting to look pretty suspicious ... the lady doth protest too much and all that.
It's hard to say, of course, because it's only expected that someone who's come under fire is going to try to defend themselves, but you're defense doesn't really jive, you know? There was the faulty denial of the Ranagrande thing, and this post, which makes some good points but is not really applicable to the situation and could be viewed as a passive-aggressive attempt to turn suspicion instead on your accusers. I don't know. You could also very well be a townie just trying to get things going, which is something I hardly want to punish by lynching! That's a good thing! Legit! And I am always wary of succumbing to my own confirmatory bias ... you can see Darkfriends in everything, you know. Or maybe that's just me.
I do want to take the time to come to a good conclusion about all of this though, and what would really REALLY help would be input from the rest of the group. HEY GUYS, POST YOUR THOUGHTS! Yes, you. And you too. And you as well! All thoughts! Everything is a good contribution! Yipppe, I love thoughts wooooooooooooooooooo thoughts! YEAH. Totally awesome.
Hmmm ... I think I ought to go to bed. Peace out, yo.
Insert theme music here.
Rafia in Space - Day 2 - Well....
07/11/2009 06:26:13 PM
- 2162 Views
Interesting turn of events.
07/11/2009 11:23:05 PM
- 814 Views
It would matter which it was...
08/11/2009 03:07:02 AM
- 646 Views
Should we decide on who to hypocop?
08/11/2009 08:04:24 AM
- 744 Views
I think randomly is the way to go today.
08/11/2009 04:16:30 PM
- 849 Views
Re: I think randomly is the way to go today.
08/11/2009 04:36:53 PM
- 898 Views
Well, yeah, that's the small risk of hypocopping- and why everyone should try to be random
08/11/2009 09:11:59 PM
- 902 Views
Yes, I thought it over and realized that without hypocopping we don't find the Mafia either. *NM*
09/11/2009 06:52:14 AM
- 297 Views
Can we do two hypocops?
09/11/2009 05:23:15 AM
- 810 Views
I think there's probably about an equal chance of there being a roleblocker or a doc.
09/11/2009 01:34:02 PM
- 808 Views
What if we have both?
09/11/2009 04:29:34 PM
- 685 Views
Right, let's get this started- Hypocop Thread
09/11/2009 03:26:21 PM
- 744 Views
I investigated Isaac, and found him to be a devourer of children and kicker of puppies. *NM*
09/11/2009 09:30:24 PM
- 374 Views
But is he innocent or guilty? *NM*
09/11/2009 09:31:40 PM
- 388 Views
It should be intuitively obvious to even a casual observer . *NM*
09/11/2009 11:19:32 PM
- 371 Views
Hypocop Table - Day 2, Complete
09/11/2009 06:26:22 PM
- 868 Views
I investigated Darth katie and found her to be for the shadow *NM*
09/11/2009 10:40:11 PM
- 388 Views
i investigated fox and ravens and foud him innocent *NM*
10/11/2009 09:34:48 AM
- 430 Views
* found
10/11/2009 02:16:49 PM
- 758 Views
Good coffee isn't made of mud.
10/11/2009 02:39:37 PM
- 767 Views
Re: Good coffee isn't made of mud.
10/11/2009 07:45:06 PM
- 746 Views
Mmm I love the smell of coffee.
10/11/2009 10:19:19 PM
- 858 Views
I did what ever you do and Napolean is for the dark side of the force... *NM*
10/11/2009 01:08:10 AM
- 393 Views
Napole<b>o</b>n. I'm saving your life here. *NM*
10/11/2009 08:10:08 AM
- 473 Views
Stop!
10/11/2009 10:12:26 AM
- 762 Views
Re: Stop!
10/11/2009 10:21:46 AM
- 759 Views
So you're saying that
10/11/2009 02:05:39 PM
- 986 Views
Forget about it
10/11/2009 05:12:31 PM
- 783 Views
Got new password, all is well
10/11/2009 05:13:37 PM
- 825 Views
So, what next?
11/11/2009 07:06:37 AM
- 685 Views
Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
11/11/2009 06:15:33 PM
- 688 Views
Re: Has anyone gained any revelations from last night?
11/11/2009 09:00:53 PM
- 788 Views
Well, that doesn't really help.
11/11/2009 09:31:20 PM
- 855 Views
And with no dead people...
11/11/2009 10:26:29 PM
- 710 Views
I'm definitely not convinced this makes Isaac innocent.
11/11/2009 11:36:06 PM
- 885 Views
Well... this is essentially a Day 1 reboot. I suppose we could just do another random lynch
12/11/2009 03:44:22 AM
- 907 Views
I guess.
12/11/2009 06:04:22 AM
- 814 Views
Hm... ok, let's take a look at posting habits
12/11/2009 06:58:10 AM
- 772 Views
I wasn't asking the roleblocker to claim. I just voiced the possibility. *NM*
13/11/2009 05:30:45 AM
- 458 Views
Questions about the hypocop
12/11/2009 10:17:35 PM
- 1049 Views
I see nothing wrong.
12/11/2009 11:34:10 PM
- 782 Views
It probably should have been more random.
13/11/2009 12:05:11 AM
- 694 Views
Re: It probably should have been more random.
13/11/2009 12:39:52 AM
- 936 Views
To me it seems that from that Darth Katie and Issac are innocent...
13/11/2009 12:14:02 AM
- 834 Views
Ok, I really think we should stop this before we do any more damage then has already been done...
13/11/2009 12:25:39 AM
- 794 Views
I usually have to strangle the Day 1 No-lynch option, which makes me very visible .
13/11/2009 04:32:28 AM
- 725 Views
Actually...
13/11/2009 09:38:54 AM
- 818 Views
The only reason I voted for him was cause Is aw his death as a win-win sutuation.
13/11/2009 06:13:03 PM
- 750 Views
It seems to me
13/11/2009 01:49:32 AM
- 765 Views
Well, I did notice that...
13/11/2009 04:37:43 AM
- 919 Views
While that's true...
13/11/2009 05:28:54 AM
- 862 Views
I meant no implication whatsoever. I was asked what I noticed, and I noticed that.
13/11/2009 06:55:18 AM
- 943 Views
We should choose hypocopped people in the future to prevent events like this. *NM*
13/11/2009 06:09:18 AM
- 452 Views
I think that would limit the cop too much.
13/11/2009 09:37:49 PM
- 705 Views
I think it worked well in your gaem. Where we chose two, and hypocopped one of those. *NM*
14/11/2009 08:17:37 AM
- 353 Views
Yeah, but there were two definite suspects then.
14/11/2009 03:17:30 PM
- 699 Views
Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects. *NM*
14/11/2009 08:00:19 PM
- 520 Views
Re: Yes, I didin't mean now, but in the future, when we may have more leads/suspects.
14/11/2009 09:00:24 PM
- 841 Views
By the way...
13/11/2009 01:22:15 AM
- 879 Views
Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
13/11/2009 06:11:30 PM
- 800 Views
Re: Hm... should we wait for Blaine to be modkilled? Or does it even matter?
13/11/2009 06:22:05 PM
- 745 Views
Yeah, I doubt we're going to find out what he was before the day ends.
13/11/2009 07:19:48 PM
- 850 Views
Question
13/11/2009 08:11:43 PM
- 933 Views
I guess the no night-kill is what has people uncertain.
13/11/2009 09:08:09 PM
- 871 Views
I just don't like lynching people randomly.
13/11/2009 09:44:59 PM
- 887 Views
Well, we didn't discuss it because, in the end, it almost didn't matter
13/11/2009 10:27:29 PM
- 723 Views
Alright, let's look at those votes then
14/11/2009 10:56:08 AM
- 891 Views
Re: Alright, let's look at those votes then
14/11/2009 08:02:50 PM
- 847 Views
I'm getting antsy
15/11/2009 02:46:48 AM
- 839 Views
Why Ranagrande?
15/11/2009 03:01:00 AM
- 697 Views
Dunno. Gut feeling. Maybe because he killed me last game!
15/11/2009 08:03:09 AM
- 772 Views
I'm getting kind of antsy too.
15/11/2009 03:56:41 PM
- 905 Views
All right
15/11/2009 06:56:33 PM
- 755 Views
It's up now.
15/11/2009 08:22:58 PM
- 816 Views
Well, it does remind me of the MHael Steve incident a number of games back...
16/11/2009 05:57:11 AM
- 731 Views
Yes, I've been thinking of game 3 too
16/11/2009 06:16:13 AM
- 845 Views
Vote Table
15/11/2009 08:18:37 PM
- 848 Views
I think you're right
15/11/2009 09:26:47 PM
- 915 Views
Sure, I'll mount an accusation
15/11/2009 11:16:07 PM
- 864 Views
Ok it semms I have to clarify a little...
15/11/2009 11:23:09 PM
- 1005 Views
Am I suspicious just because I haven't posted much, or is there a different reason? *NM*
17/11/2009 03:24:21 AM
- 514 Views
Quick defense
16/11/2009 05:52:58 AM
- 848 Views
Also: I support hypocopping Fanatic Templar or ranagrande
16/11/2009 05:57:24 AM
- 738 Views
I'm inclined to vote for beetnemesis.
16/11/2009 06:34:15 AM
- 853 Views
I actually tend to agree here.
16/11/2009 07:07:48 PM
- 869 Views
Psh. If I was a DF, I would have backed away from ranagrande as soon as people questioned it
17/11/2009 12:41:07 AM
- 823 Views
But you're backing away from Ranagrande now.
17/11/2009 01:16:17 AM
- 857 Views
I am not! Ranagrande is creepy!
17/11/2009 02:31:03 AM
- 860 Views
You totally suggested we lynch Ranagrande.
17/11/2009 04:25:12 AM
- 813 Views
Hm... ok, but that was really more idle discussion that a focused push for lynch
17/11/2009 05:50:44 AM
- 746 Views
Oh! I remember what I wanted to say!
17/11/2009 02:44:30 AM
- 831 Views
But why keep trying to divert attention to a Cult?
17/11/2009 03:35:28 AM
- 841 Views
Honestly? I just thought it sounded cool. Also, it supported the "no night kill" thing
17/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
- 966 Views
Cult vs crew is a cult win
18/11/2009 03:11:36 AM
- 889 Views
Hm? Was someone saying there were no DFs?
18/11/2009 03:19:35 AM
- 706 Views
I think what some of us are looking for here...
18/11/2009 03:28:25 AM
- 731 Views
Ahem. *Raises hand on stack of Terry Pratchett's "The Truth"*
18/11/2009 05:46:09 AM
- 723 Views
That's messed up
18/11/2009 05:50:01 AM
- 684 Views
I just finished rereading it last night
18/11/2009 05:55:17 AM
- 754 Views
Not really, but there was a debate about whether there could be a cult AND DFs...
18/11/2009 04:41:33 AM
- 861 Views
It is an interesting conundrum.
17/11/2009 05:06:04 AM
- 912 Views
P.S. I'm sorry if being indirectly called a lady is offensive to you.
17/11/2009 05:18:49 AM
- 782 Views
It's like politics.
17/11/2009 06:31:04 PM
- 870 Views
Honestly, I blame my new job
18/11/2009 05:52:28 AM
- 757 Views
Re: Honestly, I blame my new job
18/11/2009 09:23:34 AM
- 772 Views
No...
18/11/2009 12:47:40 PM
- 749 Views
actually
18/11/2009 01:15:00 PM
- 717 Views
Simply because you don't see any hard evidence is not enough of a reason not to vote.
18/11/2009 05:26:18 PM
- 847 Views
I may be swayed to vote here because as FT or Isaac had said (i forget which),
18/11/2009 06:43:15 PM
- 992 Views
I agree he looks pretty suspicious,
17/11/2009 03:39:18 AM
- 868 Views
That would be a reasonable conclusion...
17/11/2009 04:54:47 AM
- 828 Views
RBIRL 'til Thursday.
15/11/2009 11:10:49 PM
- 658 Views
reason why i voted for hopper yesterday
16/11/2009 03:22:22 AM
- 851 Views
Well, any reason for voting for Hopper was basically a good reason.
16/11/2009 05:32:22 AM
- 885 Views
RBIRL until Wednesday.
16/11/2009 02:09:34 PM
- 782 Views
Didn't pass the test.
18/11/2009 03:09:29 PM
- 683 Views
Failed by one point, I might add. Curses. *NM*
18/11/2009 03:10:39 PM
- 437 Views
Apparently that both sucks and blows at the same time. But sorry man. Good luck on Monday. *NM*
18/11/2009 09:52:36 PM
- 383 Views
Actually people...
18/11/2009 08:53:08 PM
- 823 Views
Re: Actually people...
18/11/2009 09:44:53 PM
- 855 Views
Re: Actually people...
19/11/2009 02:36:59 PM
- 774 Views
Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
18/11/2009 10:55:11 PM
- 787 Views
Re: Is this a bad time to suggest the liklihood that fistofpainx isn't a DF?
19/11/2009 02:54:19 PM
- 876 Views
Ok i have to say something or i will be killed
18/11/2009 11:30:38 PM
- 962 Views
Considering I am going to die anyway...........
18/11/2009 11:36:14 PM
- 866 Views
Have you completely gone off your bloody gourd?
19/11/2009 01:58:32 AM
- 735 Views
I suppose I actually have to write an analysis now..... Darned honor...... It'll be short though....
19/11/2009 02:38:22 AM
- 1155 Views
I have a proposition, that might be amenable to everyone
19/11/2009 02:53:04 AM
- 1026 Views
Whenever anyone asks for one more night, one more day...
19/11/2009 03:37:32 AM
- 884 Views
But... that's the OPPOSITE of the intended reaction!
19/11/2009 04:12:02 AM
- 962 Views
This right here is making me vote for you:
19/11/2009 03:16:00 PM
- 894 Views
Fair enough
19/11/2009 05:33:28 PM
- 920 Views
Re: Wreaking Havoc
19/11/2009 08:09:18 PM
- 878 Views
Super-killing machine would be the coolest role ever
19/11/2009 10:53:04 PM
- 800 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
19/11/2009 11:24:25 PM
- 907 Views
Re: DEATH UNICORN!
20/11/2009 01:33:39 AM
- 754 Views
I want to be in that band.
20/11/2009 03:16:29 AM
- 736 Views
!!!
20/11/2009 04:18:07 PM
- 725 Views
YES.
20/11/2009 06:01:21 PM
- 1107 Views
Narwhals, Narwhals, swimming in the ocea, causin a commotion, Coz they are so awesome...
20/11/2009 09:30:09 PM
- 758 Views
I may just be digging myself a deep grave...
19/11/2009 08:37:38 PM
- 818 Views
I dunno ... it's hard for me to say.
19/11/2009 11:10:55 PM
- 797 Views
DEATH UNICORN!
19/11/2009 11:12:33 PM
- 973 Views
Umm ... this does not belong here. Whoopsies! *NM*
19/11/2009 11:23:40 PM
- 403 Views
beetnemesis has been Lynched.
20/11/2009 04:23:15 AM
- 724 Views
Lol Isaac didn't even vote!
20/11/2009 04:42:58 AM
- 922 Views
Blackout
20/11/2009 11:21:48 PM
- 1108 Views
I'm off to explore the universe on my ethereal Death Unicorn- Farewell!
21/11/2009 12:59:20 AM
- 1097 Views