Mind you, my absence is only a day and a half. I checked in Monday afternoon, though I didn't post, at which point things were still going at the typical Day 1 pace. I show up today and find around 50 new posts. Seriously, the pace of this game accelerated massively and unexpectedly.
Heh. Yeah. I was rather proud of that.
As to your analysis: yes, the statistics are very shaky, and it is not much to go on. The problem is: there never is on Day 1, so we're grasping at straws. Isaac did an analysis of the number of posts, which is just as shaky as my analysis in that we have no clue what it would mean. We just assume that not posting as much is "not that Pro-Town".
I didn't really trust Isaac's analysis, wanted to do my own (as you rightly said we all should - don't trust anyone's analysis at face value) and added the (logical) step that not all posts are contributing to the Town's need.
You came up as the odd-man-out, together with Taiga.
Please show me what you would change and why (as you did) and how that would change the order and we've got a discussion. For now, two independent analyses were done, resulting in the same top five.
You should be glad that I copied all the posts I used to get the results, so that you could see what I did. I could just as easily have left that hidden, so you wouldn't have anything to argue. I want discussion, both on methods and on the results. In this way the primary objective has been served: the number of posts has exploded. Day 1 is not lagging anymore.