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Zerg Cult seems pretty probable right now, so let's analyze that Isaac Send a noteboard - 02/07/2012 11:39:47 AM
Unless someone blocked a NK or they bluffed by not throwing theirs if they have one, neither of which is particularly improbable. In their shoes I might bluff the cult route if I weren't just to keep those who were probable marines as targets for suspicion.

Meaning one of us (probably the screamer) was a marine yesterday and is now a zerg cult member. Guessing cult conversion is as hard as NK options, but the usual thinking goes, for NK, in the absence of them having evidence for a power role to remove, go for a player who is a big threat or go for a player who is very unlikely to be docced or watched. Same for a cult with a twist, grab a player who either won't draw attention or grab a player who you expect to be useful to your cause. This generally amounts to the same choices as a NK would, and the calculus on who to select either drives someone for one or the other or a combination thereof. That is to say, 'who is the player no one will notice, or rather second least likely to' and similar.

By my totally non-altruistic reasoning that last bit excludes me, I am essentially 'too obvious', plus a night action magnet with way too high of odds of something going wrong. People are always overly cautious and pessimistic on the dark side and assume townies have way more foresight and cunning then they do, so they try to be unpredictable. And, well, generally there's absolutely nothing unpredictable in murdering or converting Yours Truly. Alternatively we have plenty of good strategists and no weak links to avoid, there simply are no newbs in this game. Anyone makes a good convert of those in game. The next person who comes to mind on the 'Suspicion on general principle' is rangrande, but he's actually also fairly improbable. You might not have thought of him as obvious yet, but a scummer would have. Quite a few people would be pondering him as someone to remove from the equation for fear he'd have cracked their code or hope he might crack the docs. That's unlikely, objectively speaking, but that never matters. The scummer will think about it and they'll probably say 'They'll expect that, better not'. Lone scummers do tend to be more reckless/courageous than committee run Councils of Doom but we all know the sorts of bet hedging and second guessing that tends to come with being a scummer or a power role. So, while I wouldn't rule him out, and nobody is obviously going to rule me out, we're a little too obvious and just not so likely as a result. Especially since we both have reps for evil sinister plans and the reality is while a relative newb might be tempted to grab us as an ally, we don't really have anyone who'd fit that. This isn't, sans protoss SK, a particularly tricky op to run as cult. Last night, the odds would have pointed to 'convert 2 players on night 1 and 2, get 1 townie lynched on day 2, 3v3 Day 3 victory'. There's no need to gamble, and there's no one new enough to the game to miss that. They just need a convert who isn't a weak link and again, there simply aren't any selections of that sort available.

Frankly we're probably LyLo right now and disadvantaged, 2 in 7 chance of picking a bad guy, plus whatever odds on someone having lucked out on a night action last night or tonight, which aren't bad actually. If someone has a magic Zerg detector they would have had 1 in 6, maybe 2 in 6 if conversion was deemed to predate detection in Night Action Order by mod. Similar odds a vig, one shot or full time, nails someone tonight or someone with anti-infection ability exists and is targeted or targets the right guy or whatever. So it's not quite as bleak as 2 in 7 Lylo implies, and we might not be dealing with a standard cult or even a cult, nobody needs to risk converting a Usual Suspect in the hopes we'll cough up a a Xanatos Gambit, just don't get lynched for one more day and pull of a pair of succesful conversions on nights 1 and 2, not complex. Small game, they might only have it every other night, or can only do it once before becoming a normal scum faction, etc.

Still, for right now, I think we should assume we have 2 zerg, call it Overlord and Drone 1, OL and 1, and are LyLo... hopefully someone has something to better our odds of finding OL or 1. No lynch is on the table only if we have roles who can prevent infection or kill at night, otherwise we go into day 3 as 4-3 and a successful lynch would merely make us 4-3 on Night 3, 3-4 on Day 4. There are actually good odds we do have something that decreases the odds of Night 2 or 3 cult victory but I think, unless someone's got something good, that our best plan of action is to find the OL. They're likely be easier to find as they may not know things #1 knew yesterday, and killing them might end cult conversion ability.


The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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Mafia Day 2 - Early Expansion - 02/07/2012 09:18:28 AM 2049 Views
Crew Status - 02/07/2012 09:19:36 AM 520 Views
Zerg Cult seems pretty probable right now, so let's analyze that - 02/07/2012 11:39:47 AM 605 Views
Also we might want to decode in whole or part - 02/07/2012 12:53:30 PM 586 Views
Decoding sounds good. *NM* - 02/07/2012 03:41:06 PM 428 Views
Not in favor right now - 02/07/2012 04:20:17 PM 605 Views
Ow, wait, I think I see what you mean now - 02/07/2012 04:23:19 PM 486 Views
No, I actually forgot the doc's name-tied. - 02/07/2012 04:31:32 PM 564 Views
Re: Not in favor right now - 02/07/2012 05:50:36 PM 461 Views
Hypocopping? - 02/07/2012 03:42:46 PM 885 Views
Hypocop thread! (Table) - 02/07/2012 06:09:27 PM 544 Views
Re: Hypocop thread! (Table) - 02/07/2012 06:39:16 PM 590 Views
Re: Hypocop thread! (Table) - 02/07/2012 11:20:44 PM 520 Views
I found myself to be innocent - 02/07/2012 11:53:41 PM 541 Views
I found Bergioyn innocent. *NM* - 02/07/2012 11:55:34 PM 257 Views
I found Isaac to be guilty *NM* - 03/07/2012 02:21:35 PM 437 Views
I found Bergioyn to be guilty *NM* - 03/07/2012 06:38:44 PM 256 Views
If Hypocopping is a thing, is Metadoccing too? - 03/07/2012 07:11:51 AM 484 Views
You can do it as is with the HC, but it serves little point - 03/07/2012 02:10:32 PM 561 Views
What's your hypocop? *NM* - 03/07/2012 03:00:36 PM 266 Views
So, what should we do? *NM* - 04/07/2012 04:00:50 PM 264 Views
Some next steps - 04/07/2012 07:46:00 PM 608 Views
About exposing the doc... - 05/07/2012 05:07:14 AM 470 Views
I have a stimpack as well. - 05/07/2012 12:48:16 PM 502 Views
Actually I do - 05/07/2012 03:02:30 PM 486 Views
So... - 05/07/2012 03:19:21 PM 460 Views
Re: So... - 05/07/2012 08:50:37 PM 610 Views
I...still don't get your logic here. - 06/07/2012 01:36:23 AM 550 Views
Re: Actually I do - 05/07/2012 03:42:29 PM 527 Views
I do not have a stimpack. *NM* - 06/07/2012 01:58:00 PM 353 Views
Woah. *NM* - 06/07/2012 03:17:40 PM 221 Views
RBIRL for the weekend. - 05/07/2012 07:12:35 AM 592 Views
So I'm still here. - 07/07/2012 10:06:47 PM 621 Views
So, did anyone have anything happen to them last night? *NM* - 06/07/2012 08:06:30 PM 268 Views
Well, someone probably got a message saying 'You are now Zerg'... - 07/07/2012 12:10:36 AM 495 Views
Agreed. *NM* - 07/07/2012 10:50:18 AM 293 Views
I suppose I'll share what happened to me last night. - 07/07/2012 07:59:43 PM 527 Views
Let me probe on that one real quick - 07/07/2012 08:46:45 PM 488 Views
Yes, it is specific. - 07/07/2012 09:10:39 PM 466 Views
Re: Yes, it is specific. - 07/07/2012 10:10:13 PM 504 Views
It was in my original role message. *NM* - 07/07/2012 10:41:11 PM 280 Views
Okay, that's a bit different then - 07/07/2012 11:04:24 PM 542 Views
I was intentionally ambiguous. - 07/07/2012 11:13:45 PM 475 Views
Oh well, I'll take the bait. - 08/07/2012 01:33:28 AM 639 Views
EBWOP: Oh well, I'll take the bait. - 08/07/2012 01:34:22 AM 666 Views
I actually kind of expected that - 08/07/2012 01:38:48 AM 553 Views
Could hear a pindrop in here... - 08/07/2012 06:31:22 AM 531 Views
Re: Could hear a pindrop in here... - 08/07/2012 08:01:21 AM 521 Views
Yeah, I went to bed just after posting that. - 08/07/2012 11:47:01 AM 723 Views
Well I've got to say your encryption is, uh, vague - 08/07/2012 06:58:13 PM 570 Views
...wait, what? - 08/07/2012 11:38:20 PM 591 Views
Re: ...wait, what? - 09/07/2012 12:24:45 AM 578 Views
So... what does that mean? - 08/07/2012 11:39:58 PM 513 Views
I'm a Ghost Agent - 09/07/2012 10:19:31 AM 732 Views
Seems pretty straight forward. Vote: Isaac *NM* - 09/07/2012 12:11:03 AM 216 Views
Hmm wait... - 09/07/2012 01:49:23 AM 544 Views
The Casy name thing is in the message I got from FT. - 09/07/2012 10:20:49 AM 693 Views
Okay. - 09/07/2012 12:05:16 PM 664 Views
I'll direct you to my reply to Isaac. - 09/07/2012 12:22:59 PM 659 Views
RBIRL until Sunday night *NM* - 07/07/2012 03:22:35 AM 207 Views
Vote: Isaac - 09/07/2012 05:26:26 PM 615 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac - 09/07/2012 06:36:47 PM 499 Views
Re: Vote: Isaac - 09/07/2012 09:41:55 PM 549 Views
I am not voting at this time. - 09/07/2012 06:47:18 PM 403 Views
This has none of my fingerprints on it, something is clearly up and it literally can't be my doing - 09/07/2012 08:59:45 PM 524 Views
Unvote for now- but I have a question below. - 10/07/2012 04:38:27 AM 607 Views
About that last one - 10/07/2012 08:27:35 AM 546 Views
Vote: Stephen - 09/07/2012 11:59:46 PM 455 Views
You mean the whole thing where I have been brutally honest and told you everything. - 10/07/2012 12:12:06 AM 720 Views
No, I mean the totally useless bogus encryption. *NM* - 10/07/2012 12:26:26 AM 253 Views
Useless and bogus? - 10/07/2012 02:04:40 PM 664 Views
Vote: Stephen - 10/07/2012 04:34:03 AM 532 Views
Isaac- you said you have a stimpack that doesn't protect against infestation? - 10/07/2012 04:40:18 AM 1032 Views
Not explicitly, that's why I was fishing with Ranagrande - 10/07/2012 05:15:47 AM 445 Views
Oh, I see.... - 10/07/2012 07:10:13 AM 603 Views
From your Night Message? - 10/07/2012 08:04:03 AM 467 Views
I was protected and not targeted, to my knowledge. *NM* - 10/07/2012 08:14:47 AM 269 Views
Re: Oh, I see.... - 10/07/2012 09:17:25 AM 542 Views
Vote: Isaac (again) - 10/07/2012 03:03:04 PM 722 Views
Vote: Stephen, but FOS: Beet, what heck? - 10/07/2012 06:58:10 PM 532 Views
Congratulations, ?! You get to cast the deciding vote! - 10/07/2012 04:49:20 PM 526 Views
None at all. *NM* - 10/07/2012 05:05:51 PM 435 Views
Oh wonderful. - 10/07/2012 05:38:45 PM 687 Views
Unvote - 10/07/2012 07:40:34 PM 442 Views
Re: Unvote - 10/07/2012 08:32:06 PM 586 Views
Stephen lynched - 11/07/2012 02:00:24 AM 600 Views
Ha! Nice reference. *NM* - 11/07/2012 04:15:36 AM 352 Views
Nice death scene. *NM* - 11/07/2012 03:39:40 PM 425 Views
I hate to say I told you so, but ... - 12/07/2012 09:13:09 AM 454 Views

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