Hmm...You mention me a lot in that post...Was that me as ? or me as Kronin? I'm a tad confused.
? Send a noteboard - 09/11/2011 11:28:55 PM
The person, of course, was Beetnemesis. I’d decided when I got the hit back I’d need to claim today, so if I got murdered tonight that wouldn’t be lost. I wanted to get as much data as possible though about who he did or did not favor or vote for, as there’s a real chance it would be our last hard data. If there’s only two scum, and he is one, then the survivor might have a RB/NK choice each night and we’d have a good shot at bulling through. If there are three, and he’s not a RBer but they have one, they’ll lock me down after this, or try for a NK, or both. We don’t know if we have a doc amongst the living, but neither do the scum, and odds favor it right now so the RB if they’ve got one tonight would seem probable, and the NK would be the usual guessing game between them and the doc.
This all makes sense...
So, assuming my copping is valid, which we’ll know when beet dies… he’ll either die scum or town and if the latter I’ll know he was a miller or I’m psycho, of course he’ll claim and if he claims town and says he’s a miller we’ll all know I’m sane but barring that… anyone he’ll have a RC to decode for us or just fess up to being scum. If he claims town, non-miller, and dies as town I’ll know I’m probably psycho and you’ll know I’m psycho or scum and can act accordingly tomorrow. We all know the various options and improbabilities that can be involved but unless Beet’s decode is miller I think we can assume we’ll lynch him today, if he does decode as miller then we’ll have to consider the options but probably the same.
Are millers aligned with town or mafia? Town right? But the get copped as mafia? Okay then...I say a lynch of beet is reasonable but I'll hold off on the vote to hear from other people.
Now, Rana was ?’s accuser, but that doesn’t mean much to me yet. We have only two others who really weighed in on ?, and that’s Yuna and Hieshyn. My feeling from their responses is that neither is too likely to be scum, especially Yuna, who seemed particularly miffed about the accusation on ?, which seems like more disapproval than a scummer would apply to a townie who was being accused. My current impression, as the most probable scenario, is:
Again..? from yesterday or or today?
Beet – Scum
? – Town
Yuna – Prob-Town
Hieshyn – Prob-ish-town
… and Fox, Stephen, and Ranagrande basically neutral.
Our next step would be for me to decode, for beet to decode, and for us to wait a bit for everyone to confirm they aren’t a cop… if someone claims cop and decodes as such we probably axe beet anyway, and his alignment will tell the doc what to do tonight and everyone else what to do tomorrow. Nobody else should RC, pretty much for the foreseeable future, as that will protect us a bit, the scum will have no idea if we have a doc and if they got them, we’ll take RC’s from future lynch choices of course. During the interregnum while beet and I decode and we wait for possible cop claims I suggest everyone look through Beet’s message and try to find everything, day 1 or two, indicating who he may have favored or not, annotate messages for review, etc. I will reply shortly with my own decode, and I know there’s a case for me waiting longer to have RC’d but I think we now have enough data to have a good shot at a straight attrition victory if beet dies scum and I get no more investigations by dint of being RB’s or dead.
If all goes according to plan, we start tomorrow with 6 players, 7 if we’re lucky, but I’m a pessimist, down a townie and a scummer either 5-1 or 4-2 if there were 3 scum. If Yuna, Hieshyn, and ? and myself are town, presumably one of us will be the NK tonight and the surviving three will need to guess right amongst Fox, Stpehne, and Rana, with a 2 in 3 random chance at LyLo if there are 2 scummers, or with multiple non-LyLo 1 in 3 chances if there’s just 1 scum left after Beet. Better than 50/50 odds for either option and that doesn’t include any evidence we might be able to cobble together or any extra investigations or docings we might get. My loose advice if I get axed tonight and beet dies scum is to probable have everyone decode their RC’s, odds are good the scum claimed vanilla or less common roles, and that will likely make the difference. The tone and flavor of a lot of those random and self-selected RC’s might make a difference, we’ll also want Beet to decode his self-selected accusation if he hasn’t already, as well as everyone else, I’d didn’t see anyway to do that for him specifically without raising an eyebrow or would have done it already.
And Yes, there are a lot of different ways I could play this, many possibly getting us even more info, but I don't want a long day and I also expect to be fairly busy and distracted for the next couple of weeks, active in the game but not with my head entirely into it, so this seemed the best option, particularly since we're small enough in number that a bad lynch could go down while I wasn't looking.
Anyway, that’s where we stand at the moment, thoughts?
Oh and my username is what it is because I couldn't think of a better username...I'm not trying to be obnoxious.
Cancer never fights fair. Rest in peace Mrs. Cohen, you will be missed.
Cancer never fights fair. Rest in peace Mrs. Cohen, you will be missed.
Game 24, Day 2 - Game has ended
06/11/2011 06:04:27 PM
- 1273 Views
I'm actually a bit surprised by the choice of ?
06/11/2011 07:34:57 PM
- 1138 Views
I think a second look at our poetry is in order too, now we have more of it
07/11/2011 12:43:21 AM
- 967 Views
Re: I think a second look at our poetry is in order too, now we have more of it
07/11/2011 12:57:32 AM
- 854 Views
... and the two things
07/11/2011 01:29:31 AM
- 985 Views
UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT
07/11/2011 02:59:27 PM
- 776 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT
07/11/2011 06:23:42 PM
- 903 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT
07/11/2011 08:17:53 PM
- 805 Views
Wait, would everyone be picking their own two letters? Ah, ok, it's not as dangerous as I thought
07/11/2011 08:20:32 PM
- 809 Views
no *NM*
07/11/2011 06:19:20 PM
- 497 Views
FT already banned it *NM*
07/11/2011 06:20:45 PM
- 455 Views
Vote: ?
07/11/2011 02:33:43 PM
- 1027 Views
He could have just been being polite
07/11/2011 06:34:30 PM
- 1191 Views
Very good point, I think a roleclaim from ?, using Kronin's coded roleclaim from yesterday
07/11/2011 08:22:45 PM
- 977 Views
? can't decode Kronin's RC, and he wouldn't be allowed to give his own
07/11/2011 08:45:50 PM
- 908 Views
yeah I could go ahead and roleclaim if you want...
07/11/2011 08:56:41 PM
- 856 Views
No, I don't want you to claim
07/11/2011 08:57:47 PM
- 785 Views
Wait what's the difference?
07/11/2011 09:06:06 PM
- 820 Views
is this gonna turn into that game where i got lynched thrice in one game but for ? instead?
07/11/2011 10:24:15 PM
- 879 Views
Anybody else get a chuckle out of this? *NM*
07/11/2011 06:36:28 PM
- 442 Views
out of what? *NM*
07/11/2011 07:51:06 PM
- 429 Views
you have to go into the messege like i said ignore the *NM* prompt *NM*
07/11/2011 08:54:22 PM
- 394 Views
Shrug, I think we should still get a roleclaim from ?/Kronin
08/11/2011 01:51:24 PM
- 957 Views
I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think...
08/11/2011 08:46:07 PM
- 891 Views
Vote: Beetnemesis
09/11/2011 10:24:06 PM
- 1024 Views
Bah, now I have to claim as well
09/11/2011 10:46:37 PM
- 877 Views
decoding:
09/11/2011 11:22:31 PM
- 910 Views
Would you mind walking through that last step?
09/11/2011 11:44:30 PM
- 873 Views
Hmm...You mention me a lot in that post...Was that me as ? or me as Kronin? I'm a tad confused.
09/11/2011 11:28:55 PM
- 1004 Views
Is or Is Not a Cop (Table)
10/11/2011 12:52:52 AM
- 917 Views
I'm the daycop. Vote: Ranagrande.
10/11/2011 01:41:59 AM
- 862 Views
EBWOP: here's the code.
10/11/2011 01:43:00 AM
- 723 Views
EBWOP again
10/11/2011 01:44:04 AM
- 703 Views
Stand by for the moment
10/11/2011 01:49:38 AM
- 885 Views
Jesus...I REALLY need to read everything before I start posting.
10/11/2011 01:54:11 AM
- 886 Views
Add to that the next follow up, that ? might previously have been a Day Cop too
10/11/2011 02:04:29 AM
- 935 Views
I am a daycop. I found Isaac innocent. *NM*
10/11/2011 02:02:05 PM
- 484 Views
We still need you role decode *NM*
10/11/2011 06:19:53 PM
- 407 Views
i am a cop
10/11/2011 07:00:14 PM
- 716 Views
Ah, I was wondering how come there was suddenly thirty new posts in this thread.
10/11/2011 03:02:10 AM
- 703 Views
I think it's time to consider mass RC
10/11/2011 08:15:36 PM
- 799 Views
Sure...
10/11/2011 09:19:49 PM
- 1053 Views
There's a lot of options still, and decode confirmed by the way
10/11/2011 09:48:05 PM
- 1046 Views
The wasy I see it, anybody not claiming cop is going to get lynched
10/11/2011 11:57:24 PM
- 929 Views
Lying and claiming cop when you can't decode your RC will get you lynched faster. *NM*
11/11/2011 12:33:05 AM
- 411 Views
Fox, did you get a response on your investigation? *NM*
11/11/2011 12:20:12 AM
- 498 Views
I hadn't performed one yet.
11/11/2011 12:34:48 AM
- 875 Views
I'll investigate ? because yuna's the other daycop
11/11/2011 04:00:49 AM
- 752 Views
Wait a minute....I meant that I would be testing it against rana. Not yuna
11/11/2011 01:39:16 PM
- 1030 Views
It kinda seems like Hieshyn and ? are our logical lynch targets, plus Cop (Table)
11/11/2011 10:09:52 PM
- 1096 Views
Vote: ?
11/11/2011 10:46:43 PM
- 757 Views
I'm down with voting for ?, as long as everyone is clear on what our night actions should be
12/11/2011 04:49:53 AM
- 869 Views
Game ends.
14/11/2011 10:25:04 PM
- 841 Views
Role list:
14/11/2011 10:26:32 PM
- 882 Views
Jeeez.
14/11/2011 11:43:47 PM
- 839 Views
Kronin originally RC as a Tracker so we might have done better if we had been able to continue *NM*
15/11/2011 12:06:07 AM
- 421 Views
Also I would like to be added to the list of future Moderator
15/11/2011 12:07:51 AM
- 709 Views
You'd have first dibs via our order of precedence system
15/11/2011 02:05:04 AM
- 963 Views
Also whoever Mods should probably post a recruitment thread on some other NBs
15/11/2011 02:50:02 AM
- 886 Views
I expect my next game to draw in some new players.
15/11/2011 02:58:59 AM
- 850 Views
More is better, okay that would be Hieshyn or Beet then, unless ? wants to toss in
15/11/2011 03:26:25 AM
- 829 Views
I don't have anything prepared, so if Hieshyn wants it, I'll be happy to go after him
15/11/2011 03:28:40 AM
- 862 Views
I'm not ready to go next
15/11/2011 02:43:07 PM
- 958 Views
Aight, I think it's me then.
15/11/2011 03:15:21 PM
- 722 Views
ooooh
15/11/2011 11:27:26 PM
- 761 Views
Before the next game starts, we probably need to discuss RC coding
15/11/2011 02:15:27 AM
- 1062 Views
Yeah, I really didn't like that idea.
15/11/2011 02:58:21 AM
- 1151 Views
An informal agreement is probably the way to go then
15/11/2011 03:08:17 AM
- 967 Views
Although really, it's the same as if in IRL everyone just wrote down their role on a piece of paper
15/11/2011 03:28:00 AM
- 872 Views
Yeah, I don't think it warrants being banned (hence why I didn't), but I don't like it. *NM*
15/11/2011 03:37:59 AM
- 472 Views