Active Users:555 Time:05/04/2025 11:10:40 AM
Hmm...You mention me a lot in that post...Was that me as ? or me as Kronin? I'm a tad confused. ? Send a noteboard - 09/11/2011 11:28:55 PM

The person, of course, was Beetnemesis. I’d decided when I got the hit back I’d need to claim today, so if I got murdered tonight that wouldn’t be lost. I wanted to get as much data as possible though about who he did or did not favor or vote for, as there’s a real chance it would be our last hard data. If there’s only two scum, and he is one, then the survivor might have a RB/NK choice each night and we’d have a good shot at bulling through. If there are three, and he’s not a RBer but they have one, they’ll lock me down after this, or try for a NK, or both. We don’t know if we have a doc amongst the living, but neither do the scum, and odds favor it right now so the RB if they’ve got one tonight would seem probable, and the NK would be the usual guessing game between them and the doc.

This all makes sense...
So, assuming my copping is valid, which we’ll know when beet dies… he’ll either die scum or town and if the latter I’ll know he was a miller or I’m psycho, of course he’ll claim and if he claims town and says he’s a miller we’ll all know I’m sane but barring that… anyone he’ll have a RC to decode for us or just fess up to being scum. If he claims town, non-miller, and dies as town I’ll know I’m probably psycho and you’ll know I’m psycho or scum and can act accordingly tomorrow. We all know the various options and improbabilities that can be involved but unless Beet’s decode is miller I think we can assume we’ll lynch him today, if he does decode as miller then we’ll have to consider the options but probably the same.

Are millers aligned with town or mafia? Town right? But the get copped as mafia? Okay then...I say a lynch of beet is reasonable but I'll hold off on the vote to hear from other people.


Now, Rana was ?’s accuser, but that doesn’t mean much to me yet. We have only two others who really weighed in on ?, and that’s Yuna and Hieshyn. My feeling from their responses is that neither is too likely to be scum, especially Yuna, who seemed particularly miffed about the accusation on ?, which seems like more disapproval than a scummer would apply to a townie who was being accused. My current impression, as the most probable scenario, is:

Again..? from yesterday or or today?
Beet – Scum

? – Town

Yuna – Prob-Town

Hieshyn – Prob-ish-town

… and Fox, Stephen, and Ranagrande basically neutral.

Our next step would be for me to decode, for beet to decode, and for us to wait a bit for everyone to confirm they aren’t a cop… if someone claims cop and decodes as such we probably axe beet anyway, and his alignment will tell the doc what to do tonight and everyone else what to do tomorrow. Nobody else should RC, pretty much for the foreseeable future, as that will protect us a bit, the scum will have no idea if we have a doc and if they got them, we’ll take RC’s from future lynch choices of course. During the interregnum while beet and I decode and we wait for possible cop claims I suggest everyone look through Beet’s message and try to find everything, day 1 or two, indicating who he may have favored or not, annotate messages for review, etc. I will reply shortly with my own decode, and I know there’s a case for me waiting longer to have RC’d but I think we now have enough data to have a good shot at a straight attrition victory if beet dies scum and I get no more investigations by dint of being RB’s or dead.

If all goes according to plan, we start tomorrow with 6 players, 7 if we’re lucky, but I’m a pessimist, down a townie and a scummer either 5-1 or 4-2 if there were 3 scum. If Yuna, Hieshyn, and ? and myself are town, presumably one of us will be the NK tonight and the surviving three will need to guess right amongst Fox, Stpehne, and Rana, with a 2 in 3 random chance at LyLo if there are 2 scummers, or with multiple non-LyLo 1 in 3 chances if there’s just 1 scum left after Beet. Better than 50/50 odds for either option and that doesn’t include any evidence we might be able to cobble together or any extra investigations or docings we might get. My loose advice if I get axed tonight and beet dies scum is to probable have everyone decode their RC’s, odds are good the scum claimed vanilla or less common roles, and that will likely make the difference. The tone and flavor of a lot of those random and self-selected RC’s might make a difference, we’ll also want Beet to decode his self-selected accusation if he hasn’t already, as well as everyone else, I’d didn’t see anyway to do that for him specifically without raising an eyebrow or would have done it already.

And Yes, there are a lot of different ways I could play this, many possibly getting us even more info, but I don't want a long day and I also expect to be fairly busy and distracted for the next couple of weeks, active in the game but not with my head entirely into it, so this seemed the best option, particularly since we're small enough in number that a bad lynch could go down while I wasn't looking.

Anyway, that’s where we stand at the moment, thoughts?
Oh and my username is what it is because I couldn't think of a better username...I'm not trying to be obnoxious.

Cancer never fights fair. Rest in peace Mrs. Cohen, you will be missed.
Reply to message
Game 24, Day 2 - Game has ended - 06/11/2011 06:04:27 PM 1266 Views
I'm actually a bit surprised by the choice of ? - 06/11/2011 07:34:57 PM 1132 Views
Yes, it was an oversight. He was a townie. *NM* - 06/11/2011 08:01:11 PM 468 Views
Voting record: - 07/11/2011 05:25:40 PM 1030 Views
Was he suspicious of anyone yesterday? - 07/11/2011 02:52:26 PM 827 Views
Re: Was he suspicious of anyone yesterday? - 07/11/2011 03:36:31 PM 987 Views
I think a second look at our poetry is in order too, now we have more of it - 07/11/2011 12:43:21 AM 961 Views
... and the two things - 07/11/2011 01:29:31 AM 979 Views
I object to this plan. - 07/11/2011 02:07:35 AM 877 Views
UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 02:59:27 PM 767 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 06:23:42 PM 896 Views
Re: UM UM UM ALERT ALERT ALERT - 07/11/2011 08:17:53 PM 799 Views
Wait, would everyone be picking their own two letters? Ah, ok, it's not as dangerous as I thought - 07/11/2011 08:20:32 PM 802 Views
Yes *NM* - 07/11/2011 08:41:04 PM 458 Views
and follow that to the logical conclusion... - 07/11/2011 08:40:43 PM 1056 Views
no *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:19:20 PM 494 Views
FT already banned it *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:20:45 PM 449 Views
I know, I'm just voicing my opinion *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:27:34 PM 381 Views
Besides the ban, I can't see why you'd object - 07/11/2011 06:44:14 PM 834 Views
errrm, i don't think no is a strong enough word for this *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:58:09 PM 586 Views
? will be replacing Kronin... - 07/11/2011 01:56:08 AM 845 Views
Vote: ? - 07/11/2011 02:33:43 PM 1020 Views
Re: Vote: ? - 07/11/2011 02:42:15 PM 1139 Views
I'll echo that vote. - 07/11/2011 06:15:21 PM 1011 Views
He could have just been being polite - 07/11/2011 06:34:30 PM 1183 Views
Very good point, I think a roleclaim from ?, using Kronin's coded roleclaim from yesterday - 07/11/2011 08:22:45 PM 963 Views
? can't decode Kronin's RC, and he wouldn't be allowed to give his own - 07/11/2011 08:45:50 PM 901 Views
yeah I could go ahead and roleclaim if you want... - 07/11/2011 08:56:41 PM 850 Views
No, I don't want you to claim - 07/11/2011 08:57:47 PM 777 Views
Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:06:06 PM 813 Views
Re: Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:06:23 PM 872 Views
Re: Wait what's the difference? - 07/11/2011 09:09:04 PM 844 Views
I oh got confused. - 08/11/2011 02:41:46 AM 897 Views
That is not the case against Kronin. - 07/11/2011 09:48:52 PM 707 Views
I don't think substitution is enough - 07/11/2011 10:25:27 PM 973 Views
Anybody else get a chuckle out of this? *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:36:28 PM 437 Views
Ignore the *NM* *NM* - 07/11/2011 06:43:16 PM 433 Views
doubly so... - 07/11/2011 06:49:05 PM 989 Views
out of what? *NM* - 07/11/2011 07:51:06 PM 424 Views
Shrug, I think we should still get a roleclaim from ?/Kronin - 08/11/2011 01:51:24 PM 949 Views
I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think... - 08/11/2011 08:46:07 PM 886 Views
Re: I coded a claim above...in response to Isaac I think... - 08/11/2011 09:39:45 PM 946 Views
Heh. Die? Die! His username makes that weird. *NM* - 08/11/2011 10:55:22 PM 481 Views
eh - 08/11/2011 10:40:47 PM 916 Views
What am I missing here? - 08/11/2011 02:32:14 PM 913 Views
Re: What am I missing here? - 08/11/2011 08:38:19 PM 924 Views
Semi-RBIRL - 09/11/2011 05:26:11 AM 837 Views
Vote: Beetnemesis - 09/11/2011 10:24:06 PM 1019 Views
RC decode - 09/11/2011 10:35:52 PM 977 Views
Bah, now I have to claim as well - 09/11/2011 10:46:37 PM 868 Views
All right, let's proceed sanely then - 09/11/2011 10:51:12 PM 865 Views
OK, Unvote - 09/11/2011 11:23:35 PM 767 Views
decoding: - 09/11/2011 11:22:31 PM 905 Views
Would you mind walking through that last step? - 09/11/2011 11:44:30 PM 869 Views
Not at all. - 10/11/2011 12:09:09 AM 868 Views
Okay I confirm your decode then - 10/11/2011 12:16:22 AM 847 Views
... *NM* - 10/11/2011 01:59:58 PM 532 Views
Woah. Problems. - 09/11/2011 11:32:40 PM 799 Views
there is something really fishy going on... *NM* - 09/11/2011 11:34:09 PM 442 Views
Hmm...You mention me a lot in that post...Was that me as ? or me as Kronin? I'm a tad confused. - 09/11/2011 11:28:55 PM 997 Views
I'm only talking about you as you are now, Kronin's sub - 09/11/2011 11:56:19 PM 890 Views
what? - 09/11/2011 11:32:45 PM 692 Views
Re: what? - 09/11/2011 11:34:16 PM 740 Views
Actually, there's a strong chance neither is lying - 09/11/2011 11:53:35 PM 1054 Views
So, what now? - 10/11/2011 12:49:12 AM 1141 Views
Is or Is Not a Cop (Table) - 10/11/2011 12:52:52 AM 911 Views
I am not a cop. *NM* - 10/11/2011 01:04:38 AM 362 Views
I'm the daycop. Vote: Ranagrande. - 10/11/2011 01:41:59 AM 857 Views
EBWOP: here's the code. - 10/11/2011 01:43:00 AM 720 Views
Decode confirmed - 10/11/2011 02:08:26 AM 731 Views
Yeah, forgot to say I used Vignere. *NM* - 10/11/2011 02:18:31 AM 434 Views
EBWOP again - 10/11/2011 01:44:04 AM 695 Views
Stand by for the moment - 10/11/2011 01:49:38 AM 881 Views
Jesus...I REALLY need to read everything before I start posting. - 10/11/2011 01:54:11 AM 882 Views
Add to that the next follow up, that ? might previously have been a Day Cop too - 10/11/2011 02:04:29 AM 930 Views
It's possible... - 10/11/2011 02:18:02 AM 846 Views
Re: It's possible... - 10/11/2011 02:30:00 AM 1171 Views
I am a daycop. I found Isaac innocent. *NM* - 10/11/2011 02:02:05 PM 480 Views
We still need you role decode *NM* - 10/11/2011 06:19:53 PM 403 Views
(I did, in my other message) - 10/11/2011 07:18:43 PM 694 Views
Okay, got ya, decode confirmed *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:02:55 PM 418 Views
i am a cop - 10/11/2011 07:00:14 PM 711 Views
and my decode - 10/11/2011 07:14:38 PM 885 Views
Yep, decode confirmed *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:06:16 PM 483 Views
Also, which ? did you check? - 10/11/2011 08:08:05 PM 791 Views
original ? - 10/11/2011 08:10:30 PM 896 Views
Thanks *NM* - 10/11/2011 08:11:13 PM 395 Views
Not a cop *NM* - 10/11/2011 11:48:27 PM 650 Views
To the decode-mobile! *plays 60s Batman music* - 11/11/2011 02:32:06 PM 780 Views
Let's take another look at that poem - 10/11/2011 01:44:36 AM 967 Views
Hahaha I have to read all of these posts, but FT, you're insane. - 10/11/2011 01:58:01 PM 939 Views
FT IS insane. Turns out I was missing something after all. *NM* - 10/11/2011 09:59:56 PM 383 Views
OK! Here we go: - 10/11/2011 02:23:10 PM 943 Views
Re: OK! Here we go: - 10/11/2011 05:52:25 PM 1007 Views
I think it's time to consider mass RC - 10/11/2011 08:15:36 PM 792 Views
Sure... - 10/11/2011 09:19:49 PM 1045 Views
There's a lot of options still, and decode confirmed by the way - 10/11/2011 09:48:05 PM 1039 Views
I have been nominated! - 10/11/2011 10:30:37 PM 913 Views
Thanks - 10/11/2011 10:36:36 PM 967 Views
My pleasure *NM* - 10/11/2011 10:44:23 PM 373 Views
*NM* - 10/11/2011 11:21:59 PM 406 Views
Not saying that that is right of course... - 10/11/2011 11:23:23 PM 870 Views
Hmm... - 10/11/2011 11:20:50 PM 736 Views
I totally agree. - 10/11/2011 09:54:25 PM 788 Views
The wasy I see it, anybody not claiming cop is going to get lynched - 10/11/2011 11:57:24 PM 923 Views
Lying and claiming cop when you can't decode your RC will get you lynched faster. *NM* - 11/11/2011 12:33:05 AM 408 Views
Which I didn't do *NM* - 11/11/2011 02:05:30 AM 442 Views
I know, I know. - 11/11/2011 03:57:51 AM 761 Views
Fox, did you get a response on your investigation? *NM* - 11/11/2011 12:20:12 AM 496 Views
I hadn't performed one yet. - 11/11/2011 12:34:48 AM 866 Views
Isaac - 11/11/2011 02:00:18 AM 969 Views
Or me - 11/11/2011 02:07:10 AM 886 Views
I'd recommend ? - 11/11/2011 02:15:24 AM 743 Views
Bring it. - 11/11/2011 03:10:14 AM 788 Views
Someone who has already been copped - 11/11/2011 03:57:08 AM 735 Views
I'll investigate ? because yuna's the other daycop - 11/11/2011 04:00:49 AM 746 Views
Wait a minute....I meant that I would be testing it against rana. Not yuna - 11/11/2011 01:39:16 PM 1024 Views
no i'm not, im a normal cop *NM* - 11/11/2011 09:18:23 PM 476 Views
I had everything messed up anyway *NM* - 12/11/2011 10:45:54 PM 421 Views
Vote: Beetnemisis/RBIRL - 11/11/2011 02:04:35 AM 813 Views
Hey people sorry for the unexpected RBIRL - 11/11/2011 11:47:11 AM 973 Views
RBIRL here too. - 11/11/2011 01:34:45 PM 734 Views
I'm thinking either Hieshyn or ? - 11/11/2011 04:32:16 PM 884 Views
It kinda seems like Hieshyn and ? are our logical lynch targets, plus Cop (Table) - 11/11/2011 10:09:52 PM 1090 Views
Fox investigated ? and found him innocent *NM* - 11/11/2011 10:41:39 PM 400 Views
Vote: ? - 11/11/2011 10:46:43 PM 748 Views
Yeah, that seems logical next step, Vote: ? - 13/11/2011 02:59:25 AM 1069 Views
mrr, vote ? then *NM* - 13/11/2011 10:27:49 AM 574 Views
Think my vote was on ? already. - 13/11/2011 04:26:49 PM 871 Views
Vote: ? *NM* - 14/11/2011 02:27:20 AM 519 Views
That should be lynch with yours, so... - 14/11/2011 03:07:36 AM 804 Views
? Has been lynched - 14/11/2011 03:50:31 AM 959 Views
Game ends. - 14/11/2011 10:25:04 PM 828 Views
Role list: - 14/11/2011 10:26:32 PM 876 Views
Jeeez. - 14/11/2011 11:43:47 PM 833 Views
Kronin originally RC as a Tracker so we might have done better if we had been able to continue *NM* - 15/11/2011 12:06:07 AM 416 Views
Not even cause tracker is still the odd man out. - 15/11/2011 12:20:17 AM 835 Views
That might have worked but everyone would have had targets - 15/11/2011 02:20:43 AM 923 Views
Maybe, but I still would have known he was guilty. *NM* - 15/11/2011 02:55:43 AM 389 Views
You were paranoid, amusingly enough. - 15/11/2011 02:59:43 AM 843 Views
Ya there was no hope for us *NM* - 15/11/2011 12:04:06 AM 424 Views
YAY! - 14/11/2011 10:48:54 PM 815 Views
Wow. *NM* - 15/11/2011 01:09:28 AM 481 Views
Also I would like to be added to the list of future Moderator - 15/11/2011 12:07:51 AM 704 Views
You'd have first dibs via our order of precedence system - 15/11/2011 02:05:04 AM 958 Views
Also whoever Mods should probably post a recruitment thread on some other NBs - 15/11/2011 02:50:02 AM 881 Views
I expect my next game to draw in some new players. - 15/11/2011 02:58:59 AM 844 Views
More is better, okay that would be Hieshyn or Beet then, unless ? wants to toss in - 15/11/2011 03:26:25 AM 825 Views
Nope I'm not ready to mod yet... - 15/11/2011 08:29:24 PM 759 Views
hey - 15/11/2011 09:46:28 PM 712 Views
It's Hieshyn's if he wants it, otherwise I can go next. - 15/11/2011 12:40:13 PM 878 Views
I'm not ready to go next - 15/11/2011 02:43:07 PM 953 Views
Aight, I think it's me then. - 15/11/2011 03:15:21 PM 717 Views
Re: Aight, I think it's me then. - 15/11/2011 04:09:07 PM 915 Views
Deathless Mafia? Is that a thing? SQUEE, Mistborn! *NM* - 15/11/2011 10:15:49 PM 378 Views
If it wasn't a thing before, it is now! *NM* - 15/11/2011 10:53:14 PM 380 Views
ooooh - 15/11/2011 11:27:26 PM 756 Views
You've got a week to read the last 2....GO, GO, GO!! *NM* - 15/11/2011 11:43:21 PM 403 Views
hah! i could read both in two days - 16/11/2011 07:56:58 PM 785 Views
Just for you, the game shall be spoiler free! *NM* - 16/11/2011 12:12:24 AM 376 Views
Speaking of which, any timeline yet? - 19/11/2011 07:25:11 PM 780 Views
Sounds fantastic - 16/11/2011 12:10:06 AM 925 Views
That could also be fantastic. *NM* - 16/11/2011 12:13:29 AM 426 Views
I AM ALL SORTS OF PUMPED. *NM* - 16/11/2011 09:11:38 PM 448 Views
Though may or may not actually be playing... *NM* - 16/11/2011 09:11:58 PM 381 Views
Before the next game starts, we probably need to discuss RC coding - 15/11/2011 02:15:27 AM 1057 Views
Yeah, I really didn't like that idea. - 15/11/2011 02:58:21 AM 1145 Views
An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:08:17 AM 963 Views
Re: An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:36:38 AM 851 Views
Re: An informal agreement is probably the way to go then - 15/11/2011 03:43:39 AM 1196 Views
I really didn't like it either. - 16/11/2011 06:20:33 PM 841 Views
I liked my plan: Random voting ftw! *NM* - 16/11/2011 06:29:07 PM 420 Views

Reply to Message