I think obviously we can hold off on any RC claims by beet or DK for now, we've got three options:
1 - Fox is the cop
2 - Fox is scum
3 - Fox is town and lying
Discarding 3 out of hand for the moment, our presumed next step would be to ask everyone to confirm they are not the cop, or have or know of a role so close as to presumably fill that role. But there's a problem, if he's scum, he may be consider his death highly probable and wish to expose the cop via counterclaim on his way out, he did something very like this last game and of course has a history of fake RCing as power roles like lie-detector or Shaido Semi-doc. I'd cite as possible motive that everyone who selected Option B except FT and Fox himself wanted Fox to RC, which was a strong indicator he'd be the default lynchee and if we didn't buy his claim we'd have lynched him.
Of course he could be telling the truth, and we can confirm this by asking everyone to say they aren't. This leaves us 5 outcomes:
A) Fox is the cop, we take him at his word and drive on to additional RCs
B) Fox is the cop, we don't take him at his word, and have everybody disavow
C) We ask everyone to disavow, and expose our real cop, then lynch Fox
D) We don't ask everyone to disavow and lynch fox, he dies as the cop
E) We don't ask everyone to disavow and lynch fox, he dies as scum, our cop still hidden
These all seem plausible paths except for A, we've no reason if we believe him not to ask everyone to say so. If we pursue and get B, Fox is our cop, of degraded use of course, and FT can be considered probtown. If we get C, we take a horrible hit but the scummers lose a man. If it's D, we lose our cop, who is of lesser value, but at least know we can probably trust FT. And if we get E we get the best possible outcome we can hope for, a dead scummer and a still secret cop. We obviously only get to make two decisions here, whether or not to ask everyone and whether or not to lynch, but they more or less have to be made in tandem. If we don't ask everyone, we lynch him, and if we do ask everyone the decision to lynch will be made for us by that outcome. To me this is a very WIFOM situation, because Fox has a record of doing this sort of claim when scum, but the claim is entirely plausible.
Personally my gut says to just kill him now, because he's unlikely if truthful to help us much beyond what he'd have already done, prob-town FT, and it gives us our chance at E, a dead scummer and a still secret cop, but I may be biased on the subject But it is further complicated since we have to ask people not just if they are the cop but if they have any reason to think the classic cop isn't in play, even a partial but truthful data dump on this could hurt us even if Fox is being truthful. Regardless I would ask for a consensus on this before anyone starts shouting out that they aren't the cop or for that matter that they are the cop. Either we off him now, without anyone saying if they are or arne't cop or cop-like, because a few idle "Well, I'm not the cop" or "I believe him" [which says the same] gives the scummers one more person to mark off on the real cop hunt, or we ask everybody to say they "Have no reason to significantly doubt fox's claim from their role message" and if that comes up 100% we move on, we need to pick which first. We DO NOT need a number of people casually saying they trust Fox's claim or aren't the cop until we determine which road we want to go, because it gains us nothing, it may cost us nothing but it gains us nothing no matter what.
1 - Fox is the cop
2 - Fox is scum
3 - Fox is town and lying
Discarding 3 out of hand for the moment, our presumed next step would be to ask everyone to confirm they are not the cop, or have or know of a role so close as to presumably fill that role. But there's a problem, if he's scum, he may be consider his death highly probable and wish to expose the cop via counterclaim on his way out, he did something very like this last game and of course has a history of fake RCing as power roles like lie-detector or Shaido Semi-doc. I'd cite as possible motive that everyone who selected Option B except FT and Fox himself wanted Fox to RC, which was a strong indicator he'd be the default lynchee and if we didn't buy his claim we'd have lynched him.
Of course he could be telling the truth, and we can confirm this by asking everyone to say they aren't. This leaves us 5 outcomes:
A) Fox is the cop, we take him at his word and drive on to additional RCs
B) Fox is the cop, we don't take him at his word, and have everybody disavow
C) We ask everyone to disavow, and expose our real cop, then lynch Fox
D) We don't ask everyone to disavow and lynch fox, he dies as the cop
E) We don't ask everyone to disavow and lynch fox, he dies as scum, our cop still hidden
These all seem plausible paths except for A, we've no reason if we believe him not to ask everyone to say so. If we pursue and get B, Fox is our cop, of degraded use of course, and FT can be considered probtown. If we get C, we take a horrible hit but the scummers lose a man. If it's D, we lose our cop, who is of lesser value, but at least know we can probably trust FT. And if we get E we get the best possible outcome we can hope for, a dead scummer and a still secret cop. We obviously only get to make two decisions here, whether or not to ask everyone and whether or not to lynch, but they more or less have to be made in tandem. If we don't ask everyone, we lynch him, and if we do ask everyone the decision to lynch will be made for us by that outcome. To me this is a very WIFOM situation, because Fox has a record of doing this sort of claim when scum, but the claim is entirely plausible.
Personally my gut says to just kill him now, because he's unlikely if truthful to help us much beyond what he'd have already done, prob-town FT, and it gives us our chance at E, a dead scummer and a still secret cop, but I may be biased on the subject But it is further complicated since we have to ask people not just if they are the cop but if they have any reason to think the classic cop isn't in play, even a partial but truthful data dump on this could hurt us even if Fox is being truthful. Regardless I would ask for a consensus on this before anyone starts shouting out that they aren't the cop or for that matter that they are the cop. Either we off him now, without anyone saying if they are or arne't cop or cop-like, because a few idle "Well, I'm not the cop" or "I believe him" [which says the same] gives the scummers one more person to mark off on the real cop hunt, or we ask everybody to say they "Have no reason to significantly doubt fox's claim from their role message" and if that comes up 100% we move on, we need to pick which first. We DO NOT need a number of people casually saying they trust Fox's claim or aren't the cop until we determine which road we want to go, because it gains us nothing, it may cost us nothing but it gains us nothing no matter what.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Mafia 22: Day 2 - Get the Ball Rolling
05/05/2011 07:29:12 PM
- 2765 Views
Well, I guess that's for the best.
05/05/2011 07:46:52 PM
- 950 Views
Yeah, I guess that's not a worst case scenario
05/05/2011 08:19:50 PM
- 931 Views
Actually, probably best thing that could have happened, to be honest.
05/05/2011 08:36:57 PM
- 828 Views
OK, so the Bergioyn thing was kind of a bust
06/05/2011 04:58:14 AM
- 804 Views
I am against this plan.
06/05/2011 05:53:27 AM
- 845 Views
I'm inclined to agree with beetnemesis, actually.
06/05/2011 08:27:54 AM
- 940 Views
Are you really that sure that DK is evil to vote?
06/05/2011 12:24:21 PM
- 878 Views
Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 02:04:01 AM
- 863 Views
Re: Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 03:01:55 AM
- 921 Views
Re: Okay, right now I'm looking at Beet, FT, and DK
07/05/2011 05:10:09 AM
- 805 Views
A roleclaim seems pretty reasonable
07/05/2011 07:00:53 AM
- 846 Views
I think he wants identity claims, not roleclaims. Otherwise he'd have asked for mine too. *NM*
07/05/2011 07:15:50 AM
- 498 Views
Yes, just character *NM*
07/05/2011 02:22:50 PM
- 553 Views
Ah, that's probably better.
07/05/2011 06:46:03 PM
- 955 Views
Well, if DK is RBIRL,
07/05/2011 08:06:04 PM
- 972 Views
I could
08/05/2011 07:06:44 PM
- 903 Views
Would you mind coding it beforehand?
08/05/2011 08:59:16 PM
- 964 Views
I agree. A code would be ideal here.
08/05/2011 10:14:54 PM
- 819 Views
Good idea. OK, here it is.
09/05/2011 12:28:08 AM
- 931 Views
When you say you "don't like doing codes a lot", does that mean you don't want all of us to do it?
09/05/2011 06:30:52 PM
- 969 Views
Certainly, I'll enlighten as best I can.
07/05/2011 07:15:03 AM
- 938 Views
Yeah, we haven't waited for a modkill in a while. I think that's a problem we need to work on
07/05/2011 04:32:41 PM
- 872 Views
Okay, that pretty much answered all my questions
07/05/2011 04:44:34 PM
- 824 Views
Le Sigh
10/05/2011 01:48:19 AM
- 792 Views
Re: Le Sigh
10/05/2011 04:03:47 AM
- 843 Views
Everybody in Greek myth is drenched in blood.
10/05/2011 04:24:14 AM
- 748 Views
And we don't really have a clue what we're looking for in the scum either.
10/05/2011 06:45:09 PM
- 800 Views
OK, and my decryption:
10/05/2011 05:42:32 AM
- 947 Views
Code checks, let's go ahead an audit them
10/05/2011 07:22:36 AM
- 845 Views
Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 04:09:20 AM
- 808 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 04:19:55 AM
- 864 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 05:46:49 AM
- 815 Views
Alexander seems a bit off-flavor, but I can see Leonidas as a possibility
11/05/2011 06:17:51 AM
- 1027 Views
Re: Alexander seems a bit off-flavor, but I can see Leonidas as a possibility
11/05/2011 07:04:08 PM
- 839 Views
I've a feeling we could probably exclude the Persians
11/05/2011 07:20:58 PM
- 831 Views
You can go ahead and do that.
11/05/2011 09:17:11 PM
- 891 Views
Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
11/05/2011 10:02:14 PM
- 830 Views
Re: Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
11/05/2011 11:21:44 PM
- 921 Views
I was referring to ranagrande's "Have you heard of your character" question
12/05/2011 12:39:55 AM
- 837 Views
If you guys are going to guess what my character is, why not jsut ask me to character claim?
12/05/2011 02:53:17 AM
- 723 Views
Re: Plus, there's the whole "well-known" thing
12/05/2011 03:29:52 AM
- 848 Views
I think Troy was in Asia
12/05/2011 03:53:13 AM
- 866 Views
Yes, it's in Anatolia.
12/05/2011 04:50:06 AM
- 861 Views
So I wikipediaed it.
12/05/2011 05:23:37 AM
- 867 Views
Wow, 'historicity' is a word, I never knew that
12/05/2011 05:43:53 AM
- 852 Views
Yeah, I'm not opposed, I had just always assumed the Trojans were Greeks, so I was surprised.
12/05/2011 05:54:24 AM
- 781 Views
Re: Eh... I'm open to pursuing other avenues, as long as we don't rule out DK
11/05/2011 09:16:11 PM
- 808 Views
I actually believe Katie.
11/05/2011 01:11:17 AM
- 815 Views
I think most of us do, but I don't think you've contemplated the facts thoroughly
11/05/2011 03:53:30 AM
- 893 Views
So...
11/05/2011 03:11:35 AM
- 941 Views
Re: So...
11/05/2011 03:51:57 AM
- 822 Views
Wait, we have that?
11/05/2011 04:44:10 AM
- 937 Views
11/05/2011 05:13:50 AM
- 818 Views
Yea, I tend to skim when your posts get too long, unless their life-or-death, so to speak. *NM*
11/05/2011 06:45:07 AM
- 494 Views
One might note that when they get 'too long', there's generally a reason they did
11/05/2011 06:57:38 PM
- 845 Views
Yes, but sometimes that reason is that you want to bury suspicions in a wall of text . *NM*
11/05/2011 11:20:01 PM
- 520 Views
Probably not
11/05/2011 11:56:11 PM
- 757 Views
I'm not going to lie, I'm trying to decide of you are serious or not.
11/05/2011 05:36:59 AM
- 908 Views
My character claim.
12/05/2011 02:27:03 PM
- 879 Views
Good job at making yourself incredibly suspicious
12/05/2011 03:24:18 PM
- 827 Views
BUM BUM BUMMMMMMMMMMMMM
12/05/2011 04:17:51 PM
- 868 Views
Yeah, that probably requires some explaining away
12/05/2011 09:13:39 PM
- 834 Views
Not true this time.
12/05/2011 11:27:55 PM
- 832 Views
Re: Not true this time.
12/05/2011 11:57:58 PM
- 792 Views
Re: Not true this time.
13/05/2011 12:01:46 AM
- 811 Views
Pretty much that you're wrong
13/05/2011 01:14:28 AM
- 834 Views
I am wrong, judging by Hobo's post
13/05/2011 01:24:38 AM
- 809 Views
I admit this is possible, but...
13/05/2011 01:36:28 AM
- 831 Views
Re: I admit this is possible, but...
13/05/2011 01:46:51 AM
- 915 Views
2 things about that.
12/05/2011 11:26:14 PM
- 784 Views
This is an easy misunderstanding.
13/05/2011 12:24:52 AM
- 798 Views
Actually, can we get a quick headcount?
15/05/2011 12:10:11 AM
- 777 Views
Yo.
15/05/2011 01:15:05 AM
- 870 Views
We seem to have reached an impasse
17/05/2011 01:07:29 PM
- 1007 Views
Option Pick (Table)
17/05/2011 11:13:07 PM
- 886 Views
Yeah, I'm not specially fond of roleclaiming this early in the game.
18/05/2011 01:51:36 AM
- 838 Views
Okay Fox, it looks like it's gonna be you
19/05/2011 03:32:47 AM
- 850 Views
I guess that's plausible
19/05/2011 06:02:21 AM
- 848 Views
Re: I guess that's plausible
19/05/2011 06:19:57 AM
- 833 Views
It is a strategy that is most valuable the earlier you use it though.
19/05/2011 06:39:29 AM
- 798 Views
I say don't RC yet. Wait for us to discuss my claim and where to go from here. *NM*
19/05/2011 03:35:49 PM
- 524 Views
Okay, cop claim in play, so what do we want to do?
19/05/2011 06:01:55 AM
- 1002 Views
Even if he has been outed as the cop
19/05/2011 06:24:31 AM
- 767 Views
Hm. The roleblocker is a pretty big thing. If one of us is cop though, come foward
19/05/2011 06:54:30 AM
- 775 Views
It also ties up their roleblocker though.
19/05/2011 06:56:29 AM
- 894 Views
The one thing that makes me slightly suspect the claim
19/05/2011 12:49:38 PM
- 929 Views
Nevermind
19/05/2011 12:51:44 PM
- 925 Views
Anyway, you would think that because of my previously flub ups, I'd learn.
19/05/2011 03:43:09 PM
- 862 Views
"Because I've demonstrated a penchant for making mistakes, obviously this time is for real."
19/05/2011 06:21:17 PM
- 982 Views
OK then, I'll RC
20/05/2011 07:23:07 PM
- 867 Views
Makes sense to me.
22/05/2011 05:43:56 PM
- 840 Views
I'm the cop.
22/05/2011 09:50:11 PM
- 948 Views
Well this was easier than expected.
22/05/2011 10:24:52 PM
- 853 Views
Wow, yeah. Wtf is this? Vote: Darth Katie. *NM*
23/05/2011 12:15:14 AM
- 471 Views
Hmm...
23/05/2011 01:42:32 AM
- 938 Views
We can make an argument to lynch her purely off the "lynch all liars" rule as F-T said.
23/05/2011 02:10:11 AM
- 983 Views
*Hits self in the face repeatedly*
23/05/2011 09:19:40 AM
- 804 Views
Did I mention I didn't get a lot of sleep last night?
23/05/2011 09:25:15 AM
- 705 Views
I can believe that at least
23/05/2011 10:29:12 AM
- 894 Views
Oh please
23/05/2011 02:35:28 PM
- 900 Views
This would all be more believable
23/05/2011 03:32:31 PM
- 775 Views
I didn't remember that about Option B
23/05/2011 03:52:11 PM
- 873 Views
I will *Unvote* for now
23/05/2011 05:42:22 PM
- 938 Views
You don't approve of a doctor that can protect himself?
23/05/2011 11:23:58 PM
- 831 Views
Yeah, this is what I expected the other plausible screw-up to be.
23/05/2011 07:10:46 PM
- 789 Views
So... Fox and DK have both claimed cop?
23/05/2011 02:34:30 AM
- 849 Views
Well, now the switch around to a Doc claim.
23/05/2011 03:56:48 PM
- 784 Views
He's Beloved though (if he's not scum)
23/05/2011 04:07:06 PM
- 983 Views
Yeah, this whole thing didn't really work out too well
23/05/2011 04:38:30 PM
- 792 Views
It's been an unmitigated disaster
23/05/2011 06:01:23 PM
- 845 Views
So, uh... Wow.
23/05/2011 07:38:36 PM
- 856 Views
Before this Mass RC idea takes hold...
23/05/2011 07:59:18 PM
- 878 Views
All right...
23/05/2011 08:29:28 PM
- 957 Views
Possibly
23/05/2011 08:51:52 PM
- 866 Views
Was it Kronin or Gher that did the whole "everyone is a robot with a Backup Role" game?
23/05/2011 11:28:05 PM
- 833 Views
I want to start off by saying that I believe DK.
23/05/2011 08:21:26 PM
- 893 Views
Re: I want to start off by saying that I believe DK.
23/05/2011 08:41:10 PM
- 808 Views
Another point against Isaac:
23/05/2011 11:32:14 PM
- 864 Views
Actually, I didn't suspect either you or DK, you brought that up
23/05/2011 11:54:19 PM
- 885 Views
Re: Actually, I didn't suspect either you or DK, you brought that up
24/05/2011 12:28:24 AM
- 894 Views
So, seeing no objections to the mass character claim, let's start!
26/05/2011 01:16:36 AM
- 766 Views
Character Claims (table)
26/05/2011 02:48:44 AM
- 900 Views
Okay here goes.
26/05/2011 09:32:59 PM
- 776 Views
I'm Zeno. *NM*
27/05/2011 01:40:47 AM
- 531 Views
How paradoxical... I actually thought Xena for a moment
27/05/2011 03:08:57 AM
- 1027 Views
I guess Xena is close, though it might take a while to get from there to Zeno.
27/05/2011 05:55:32 AM
- 803 Views
All right
28/05/2011 10:33:48 PM
- 922 Views
Re: All right
29/05/2011 12:42:12 AM
- 1034 Views
Re: All right
31/05/2011 07:09:31 AM
- 879 Views
Heh, looks like I'm holding out for no particular reason.
30/05/2011 07:11:21 PM
- 994 Views
Kronin, what are we doing about Scott's continued absence?
29/05/2011 11:38:52 PM
- 973 Views
Yeah, I've been waiting on Scott's situation to resolve before doing anything
30/05/2011 02:04:07 AM
- 886 Views
Vote: Scott Blademaster
30/05/2011 10:23:50 PM
- 1155 Views
While I generally agree with your reasoning...
31/05/2011 12:10:35 AM
- 1015 Views
I was actually thinking along extremely similar lines before we started doing character claims.
31/05/2011 12:28:44 AM
- 855 Views
Re: I was actually thinking along extremely similar lines before we started doing character claims.
31/05/2011 01:28:49 AM
- 825 Views
I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 01:08:26 AM
- 878 Views
Re: I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 01:35:31 AM
- 973 Views
Re: I believe the point of Socrates trial was that he was falsely accused
31/05/2011 03:28:20 AM
- 916 Views
Meh, I'm not exactly averse to lynching Scott...
31/05/2011 05:25:14 AM
- 904 Views
So, the way I see it, we have two (well, three) options for our lynch
31/05/2011 04:02:14 PM
- 970 Views
I'm a bit confused at the moment.
31/05/2011 06:27:26 PM
- 836 Views
Obviously, I would be against lynching me.
31/05/2011 07:41:15 PM
- 902 Views
I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
31/05/2011 10:11:32 PM
- 917 Views
Re: I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
01/06/2011 12:37:36 AM
- 847 Views
Re: I think DK and Fox are telling the truth, simply because we've had no contradictions
01/06/2011 09:27:32 PM
- 831 Views
Re: So, the way I see it, we have two (well, three) options for our lynch
31/05/2011 08:13:17 PM
- 977 Views
Responses!
31/05/2011 10:41:38 PM
- 967 Views
Re: Responses!
01/06/2011 02:32:22 AM
- 798 Views
That is an awful lot of talking to refute me
01/06/2011 04:41:13 AM
- 774 Views
I could go find my mallet again if brevity is desired, glad you've acknowledged I refuted you though
01/06/2011 05:18:46 AM
- 1064 Views
About ?
01/06/2011 09:41:44 PM
- 914 Views
Huh, that was way more revealing than expected
01/06/2011 10:30:55 PM
- 797 Views
It IS pretty hard to say "Oh, well he's a new player" at this point *NM*
02/06/2011 12:40:32 AM
- 483 Views
Kronin actually hasn't answered my question about last Night yet.
02/06/2011 03:17:05 AM
- 780 Views
Well, I do sincerely doubt a philosopher's ring is in play
31/05/2011 10:39:41 PM
- 884 Views
Ohhhh! You know, I looked up a bunch of famous Spartans on Wikipedia when I read that
31/05/2011 10:44:05 PM
- 889 Views
I'm decently suspicious of ranagrande.
01/06/2011 03:55:26 PM
- 932 Views
True- as long as DK protects you, you've got at least one more night
01/06/2011 06:47:36 PM
- 863 Views
Re: True- as long as DK protects you, you've got at least one more night
01/06/2011 08:36:40 PM
- 922 Views
Hey, sorry all.
02/06/2011 04:45:45 AM
- 767 Views
No questions in particular
02/06/2011 05:10:52 AM
- 771 Views
Thoughts
02/06/2011 05:09:37 AM
- 938 Views
So couple of things:
02/06/2011 09:05:16 AM
- 860 Views
Well, basically DK's "Thoughts" post sums up my thoughts pretty well.
03/06/2011 01:34:52 AM
- 830 Views
Yeah, he seems to be prime suspect.
03/06/2011 12:48:30 PM
- 821 Views
I will also Vote: ?
04/06/2011 01:56:32 AM
- 814 Views
Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched. *NM*
04/06/2011 03:14:43 AM
- 417 Views
Re: Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched.
04/06/2011 12:18:53 PM
- 909 Views
Re: Hold off now everyone. We don't want him accidentally lynched.
04/06/2011 02:28:49 PM
- 843 Views
So, our titular rolling ball seems to be headed straight at ?. ?, do you have any thoughts? *NM*
03/06/2011 02:53:37 AM
- 502 Views
I am ?'s Mason Partner.
04/06/2011 06:44:26 PM
- 880 Views
I am itching to vote for him right now.
04/06/2011 07:01:34 PM
- 804 Views
That's true. Not only did he prematurely roleclaim, he prematurely FALSELY roleclaimed *NM*
04/06/2011 09:06:22 PM
- 495 Views
In my opinion that doesn't help him at all.
04/06/2011 07:41:00 PM
- 917 Views
I don't think there's much point in waiting on ? anymore
04/06/2011 09:31:26 PM
- 904 Views
I do agree...BUUUUTTTT
04/06/2011 09:58:09 PM
- 783 Views
Vote: ?
05/06/2011 12:56:57 AM
- 907 Views
I WOULD like to hear what ? has to say... but he's certainly taking his sweet time
05/06/2011 01:19:42 AM
- 835 Views
Twilight
05/06/2011 08:42:02 PM
- 899 Views
Re: Twilight
05/06/2011 09:13:07 PM
- 819 Views
Scott, being dead, was not included in the VNTL. *NM*
05/06/2011 10:26:22 PM
- 473 Views
I think he meant 'what was Scott?' *NM*
06/06/2011 12:27:07 AM
- 513 Views
I suppose this place is as good as any to say, Happy Birthday Gher! *NM*
06/06/2011 08:26:56 PM
- 442 Views