As Napoleon said, but there are also potential downsides
Isaac Send a noteboard - 21/09/2009 12:20:23 AM
What is it?
Yeah, I'm a mafia noob.
Yeah, I'm a mafia noob.
Especially if it's strictly townie vs mafia, no third factions, the mafia knows who is and isn't a bad guy. So when you've hypocopped a day or two, the can start isolating who is and isn't a cop. Loosely speaking, people have about a 1 in 3 chance of being a DF and a 2 in 3 of being a townie. or 1 in and 3 in 4 respectively, generally in that range. Just going with the 1 in 3, a random non-cop townie player guessing at another player has 2/3 chance of being right if he picks townie, and a 1/3 if he/she guesses DF. Works out that each hypocop guess has about a 50% chance of being correct, 25% or so of being right two days in a row, and so on, so each day that progresses gives the DF a better guess at who the cop is, alternatively the townies don't know, and a doc, if we have one, doesn't know who to protect while the DFs can start attacking anyone who isn't ruled out by the hypocop.
If you have enough players, then statistically you'll tend to profit from this endeavor if everyone actually randomizes their pick. If half the players pick a DF, then the DFS will have an awful lot of people they can disqualify. i.e. seven players guess other players are DFs, two have it right, the DFs can immediatly disqualify the other 5. The others who guessed townie might well be the cop and the two who guessed DF just guessed accuratly, but the DFs will probably attack the two who guessed DF that night, then look at the hypocop results for the next day, etc.
One variation that works well is that we hypocop until the cop finds a DF, then the cop announces it and hopes the doc will try to protect them and the bad guys don't have any uber-killers who can override a doc's protection. The odds of the cop finding a DF before the DFs figure out who the cop is are pretty decent. Of course, this is all stats, your cop can get gutted at random on night 1.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 2: Day 1 - The Greatest Game Ever Played
18/09/2009 06:55:33 AM
- 3982 Views
Is it really the greatest game ever played?
18/09/2009 12:28:57 PM
- 1463 Views
Cosmic Chess between the Dark One and the Creator?
18/09/2009 05:53:04 PM
- 1166 Views
Vote Table ...
19/09/2009 04:25:51 AM
- 1474 Views
Re: Vote Table ...
19/09/2009 05:55:27 AM
- 1372 Views
Let's see if we can get this moving
19/09/2009 08:34:50 PM
- 1385 Views
Um...
19/09/2009 08:56:24 PM
- 1401 Views
Maybe
19/09/2009 09:09:07 PM
- 1376 Views
well im somebody
19/09/2009 10:25:24 PM
- 1414 Views
Same here.
20/09/2009 02:20:39 AM
- 1285 Views
Re: Same here.
20/09/2009 03:57:13 AM
- 1570 Views
hypocopping
20/09/2009 06:36:56 AM
- 1440 Views
As Napoleon said, but there are also potential downsides
21/09/2009 12:20:23 AM
- 1348 Views
I'm not sure
20/09/2009 01:55:12 AM
- 1434 Views
Problem is...
20/09/2009 02:08:01 AM
- 1290 Views
Character Info Table 1 - Last Update 1:04 AM EST, 20 September
20/09/2009 03:42:51 AM
- 1315 Views
I think everyone is from a different series.
20/09/2009 03:44:21 AM
- 1295 Views
Did she? Must have missed that
20/09/2009 04:06:32 AM
- 1458 Views
I am a main character, plus SHOCKING REVELATION INSIDE!
20/09/2009 05:22:28 AM
- 1251 Views
well we could all name ourselves
20/09/2009 06:29:58 AM
- 1219 Views
Doesn't seem like it would be that effective.
20/09/2009 08:01:06 PM
- 1294 Views
Now what I think we should do is...
20/09/2009 08:28:36 PM
- 1277 Views
Let's narrow that down a bit
20/09/2009 09:45:00 PM
- 1316 Views
I like the plan
21/09/2009 12:15:57 AM
- 1267 Views
Re: I like the plan
21/09/2009 12:37:02 AM
- 1317 Views
I don't mind being the first
21/09/2009 12:44:45 AM
- 1229 Views
All right, I'll join in there
21/09/2009 12:55:00 AM
- 1371 Views
Player Background Settings (Table) - Update 0117 23.9
21/09/2009 01:52:39 AM
- 1398 Views
Re: Player Background Settings (Table) - Last Update 9:56 pm EST, 20 Sept
21/09/2009 04:38:46 AM
- 1200 Views
I'm from Hitchikers Guide to the Galaxy, Star Wars or Lord of The Rings *NM*
21/09/2009 07:35:21 AM
- 690 Views
I'm confident that naming our series won't make a difference at all
21/09/2009 01:41:58 PM
- 1366 Views
That format for claiming won't really work for me.
21/09/2009 06:05:29 PM
- 1190 Views
Why wouldn't it?
21/09/2009 10:08:18 PM
- 1181 Views
I think that's probably good...
21/09/2009 11:01:43 PM
- 1372 Views
Re: I think that's probably good...
21/09/2009 11:10:21 PM
- 1315 Views
No, Shakespeare wrote/created me.
21/09/2009 11:14:13 PM
- 1286 Views
So you're not Simba from The Lion King?
22/09/2009 05:38:22 AM
- 1289 Views
That's a good movie *NM*
23/09/2009 01:59:50 AM
- 775 Views
So let's start up some action...
21/09/2009 04:45:32 AM
- 1230 Views
It's time to do something!
22/09/2009 12:44:52 PM
- 1253 Views
Okay...
22/09/2009 08:18:00 PM
- 1207 Views
Isaac didn't influence me at all
22/09/2009 08:45:56 PM
- 1283 Views
Our current summary (Table) - Update 0114 EST 22.9
23/09/2009 01:56:08 AM
- 1253 Views
I forgot to name; Wheel of Time, Star Wars, or Lord of the Rings *NM*
23/09/2009 02:08:27 AM
- 753 Views
About that...
23/09/2009 04:18:38 AM
- 1248 Views
Re: About that...
23/09/2009 05:02:59 AM
- 1303 Views
Is Moloch dead?
23/09/2009 03:54:55 AM
- 1278 Views
Moloch is now DEAD.
23/09/2009 05:08:13 AM
- 1337 Views
Arghhhhh 9 more days *NM*
23/09/2009 05:25:03 AM
- 678 Views
Moloch was a lightside/townie Jedi from Star Wars?
23/09/2009 05:40:55 AM
- 1355 Views
Re: Moloch was a lightside/townie Jedi from Star Wars?
23/09/2009 11:31:38 PM
- 1334 Views
Have we seen anyone die in TAR?
24/09/2009 04:36:23 AM
- 1275 Views
How do you know for a fact he was a townie jedi? Or was that a joke. I missed the memo. *NM*
24/09/2009 04:58:55 AM
- 755 Views
Re: How do you know for a fact he was a townie jedi? Or was that a joke. I missed the memo.
25/09/2009 12:52:04 AM
- 1305 Views
Vote: Gher
23/09/2009 06:12:38 AM
- 1188 Views
I really doubt he's a DF
23/09/2009 12:38:29 PM
- 1399 Views
You haven't sparred with him as much
23/09/2009 12:48:21 PM
- 1219 Views
He probably does have some useful information, due to his uniquity.
23/09/2009 03:30:49 PM
- 1313 Views
Re: You haven't sparred with him as much
23/09/2009 04:34:24 PM
- 1283 Views
Re: You haven't sparred with him as much
23/09/2009 07:53:00 PM
- 1234 Views
I agree with Fox and Ravens
23/09/2009 01:38:49 PM
- 1338 Views
Trivial Laws of Shakespeare?
23/09/2009 02:33:54 PM
- 1343 Views
Alright.
23/09/2009 06:49:34 PM
- 1322 Views
White Light or Darkness [Table]: That's everyone, unless Marshall wants to clarify
23/09/2009 06:54:40 PM
- 1276 Views
Yeah, white light.
24/09/2009 01:14:59 AM
- 1257 Views
Still fairly sure, I did expect a majority of White Light answers. *NM*
24/09/2009 01:44:33 AM
- 728 Views
Re: White Light or Darkness [Table]: (Updated at 1:50:56 24/09 RAFO time) 7 have answered, 7 haven't
24/09/2009 02:55:25 AM
- 1307 Views
Vote: Blaine
24/09/2009 04:31:27 AM
- 1230 Views
Re: Vote: Blaine
24/09/2009 04:53:46 AM
- 1239 Views
Are you completely sure?
24/09/2009 11:18:36 PM
- 1303 Views
White + Very Bright *NM*
24/09/2009 04:49:14 AM
- 709 Views
Bright White Light *NM*
24/09/2009 11:01:31 AM
- 761 Views
Whoops! Was Editing fobridden? I just changed it from Whte Light to Bright White Light after ...
24/09/2009 11:05:37 AM
- 1161 Views
Why don't you tell us what you got?
25/09/2009 01:58:54 AM
- 1216 Views
^Seconded.
25/09/2009 02:28:38 AM
- 1197 Views
Re: ^Seconded.
25/09/2009 03:02:47 AM
- 1227 Views
Damn't I took too long typing; Gher already said what his was. *NM*
25/09/2009 03:05:03 AM
- 703 Views
Whaat??? I didn't check for 2 days and there is 91 new replies!? *NM*
24/09/2009 10:37:46 AM
- 759 Views
I will be gone until monday, I couldn't remember the time of inactivity required for modkill, so...
24/09/2009 09:47:07 PM
- 1407 Views
Hmm... I swear I replied to this.
25/09/2009 01:37:05 AM
- 1159 Views
Over 200 posts and nothing has happened or been decided besides one mod-kill. Come on guys.
25/09/2009 01:55:45 AM
- 1281 Views
Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch.
25/09/2009 03:50:26 AM
- 1220 Views
Re: Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch.
25/09/2009 04:44:37 AM
- 1287 Views
Re: Dude, we've gone well over 200 before with no lynch.
26/09/2009 09:31:02 PM
- 1241 Views
All right, White Light and Darkness.
25/09/2009 03:00:51 AM
- 1270 Views
Thanks for the reveal.
25/09/2009 03:13:49 AM
- 1234 Views
Well, at the rate this is going...
26/09/2009 10:38:49 PM
- 1251 Views
...I guess this makes sense for you
26/09/2009 11:18:02 PM
- 1417 Views
I think I missed something
27/09/2009 01:29:38 AM
- 1271 Views
He didn't exactly lie...
27/09/2009 02:13:02 AM
- 1284 Views
I will say....
27/09/2009 05:23:37 AM
- 1359 Views
Re: I will say....
27/09/2009 05:58:10 AM
- 1393 Views
Well, yeah.
27/09/2009 05:31:11 AM
- 1217 Views
Re: Well, yeah.
27/09/2009 06:10:53 AM
- 1294 Views
Re: Well, yeah.
27/09/2009 06:50:39 AM
- 1299 Views
My two cents- Gher is making me nervous. He's doing divide-and-conquer
27/09/2009 06:26:33 PM
- 1315 Views
So! <b>Vote: Gher</b> *NM*
27/09/2009 06:27:01 PM
- 746 Views
Sigh...
27/09/2009 06:31:04 PM
- 1263 Views
Yeah, it doesn't work in the title, but game rules allow you to just put Vote: PLayer X in the title *NM*
27/09/2009 08:49:39 PM
- 723 Views
You're from Twilight?!?
27/09/2009 06:32:56 AM
- 1287 Views
Now I'm really confused.
27/09/2009 07:39:35 AM
- 1244 Views
What just happened there? *NM*
27/09/2009 09:07:36 AM
- 730 Views
WOO
27/09/2009 02:03:10 AM
- 1110 Views
Re: WOO
27/09/2009 02:16:42 AM
- 1271 Views
are you asking me personally?
27/09/2009 04:13:16 AM
- 1315 Views
not necessarily, it was meant for anyone to repsond to if they wanted. *NM*
27/09/2009 05:34:40 AM
- 816 Views
Vote Table (Update 6:41 RAFO time)
27/09/2009 04:39:20 PM
- 1459 Views
Well, I don't see what Gher did as a problem...
27/09/2009 05:00:32 PM
- 1267 Views
See my post above for why I think Hobo is innocent, and Gher likely a DF
27/09/2009 06:36:57 PM
- 1346 Views
I don't know about this
27/09/2009 06:55:21 PM
- 1230 Views
What does "bussed?" mean
27/09/2009 07:03:20 PM
- 1238 Views
since gher has lied
27/09/2009 06:21:28 PM
- 1255 Views
I'll go with it.
27/09/2009 06:24:08 PM
- 1241 Views
I didn't vote
27/09/2009 06:56:48 PM
- 1266 Views
Looks like I started something...
27/09/2009 11:42:46 PM
- 1274 Views
I'm back--let me read over stuff. Will be prepared by tomorrow. *NM*
28/09/2009 01:23:58 AM
- 731 Views
How bout a deal?
28/09/2009 05:09:28 AM
- 1440 Views
Look, I'm all for lynching Hobo...
28/09/2009 01:48:07 PM
- 1087 Views
I really don't like this "voting just for the sake of a lynch" business.
28/09/2009 03:48:51 PM
- 1318 Views
Why is Gher less suspicious?
28/09/2009 05:21:51 PM
- 1375 Views
I think his point was that lynching someone is better than lynching no one.
28/09/2009 07:49:47 PM
- 1306 Views
I don't think so
28/09/2009 03:07:42 PM
- 1284 Views
Ooh, a third party does seem kind of likely, doesn't it?
28/09/2009 03:30:10 PM
- 1204 Views
It's a high probability
28/09/2009 03:45:40 PM
- 1098 Views
So, you're saying that if Gher was innocent, he would have been lynched by now?
28/09/2009 05:06:05 PM
- 1327 Views
I think we shouldn't lynch anyone first day.
28/09/2009 04:55:43 PM
- 1274 Views
I demand blood! Plus, with so many people, we're likely to hit at least ONE faction,
28/09/2009 05:15:34 PM
- 1122 Views
Day 1 no-lynch is an absolutely and objectively detrimental technique for the Light.
28/09/2009 07:24:01 PM
- 1308 Views
There are many other factors than pure math involved.
28/09/2009 09:11:34 PM
- 1119 Views
Thanks for making me doubt again.
28/09/2009 09:26:17 PM
- 1238 Views
Vote Gher! We shall find the truth in his entrails! *NM*
28/09/2009 09:37:59 PM
- 786 Views
Blast! I was sure swallowing the evidence would ensure it remains uncompromised. *NM*
28/09/2009 09:40:09 PM
- 733 Views
All right
28/09/2009 10:03:40 PM
- 1320 Views
So...
28/09/2009 10:47:44 PM
- 1150 Views
Hobo has been Lynched.
29/09/2009 03:31:32 AM
- 1318 Views