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Let's look at forecasts Isaac Send a noteboard - 12/01/2011 04:24:46 AM
This, by the way, is the new format for forecasts, a bit longer and more detailed but I felt it was silly to have people calculate this for themselves every time, so averages are included. I also wanted to talk about what can be done with this info. Which we'll do beneath it by section but obviously the first thing is that, with a couple of exception, all the info can be extrapolated from the first table, which is merely a sum of player info. The second table is merely the VP pot portion for each area (planets, income, etc) divided up by the totals of those things. Income and Wealth are merely flipped to be easier to use... your future R2P1 report will include your approximate VP total too, or to be more accurate, your Proportional VP.

Forecast Report
Players 7
VP Pot 2,400
Votes 72
Military 46
Planets 8
Assets 30
Stock 60
Income 39,900
Wealth 87,384

Victory Point Distribution
5.0 VP per Vote
7.8 VP per Legion
30.0 VP per Planet
8.0 VP Per Primary Asset
4.0 VP per Stock
166.3 MS Per VP
364.1 MS per VP

Averages
Avg Votes: 10.3
Avg Military: 6.6
Avg Planets: 1.1
Avg Assets: 4.3
Avg Stock: 8.6
Avg Income: 5,700
Avg Wealth: 12,483

Additional Info
Sum of Attrbiutes 56
Avg Attrib Score 2.7
Avg Combined Score 5.3
Locations in Play 55
Militia Units 10

VP requirements by Rank
Barony 343
Viscount 400
Count 457
Marquis 514
Duke 571
Archduke 629
Prince 686


First, the ranks, as mentioned the player's ultimate goal is to have as much VP as possible at the end of the game. These are broken between 7 ranks distributed between Baron and Prince, this is not a first through seventh place, five players could all score count. Getting a rank is effectively a reflection of how much of your personal goals and the VP Pot you achieved. There are currently 3100 VP in play - 1000 plus 300 per player. of that, 750 plus 150 per player, or 1800 VP, distribute proportionally, with a current average of 257 VP. If you stay average and achieve all your personal goals that would be 337, just a couple points shy of a barony and most players will receive at least a few VP. In other words, stay average and achieve your goals and you'll make Baron... which is a 'win'. If almost every single VP point in play is gained, and evenly distributed, it would be 442, well into Viscount territory - remember, 25% of the VP Pot goes to individual awards like having the most votes or legions or luxuries. If a player joins, or resigns, these numbers shift. Ranks are assigned between Baron and Prince, with Baron being simply the VP pot divided by number of players - in this case 343, and with Prince being double that, at 686, the five in-between ranks are evenly spread between them. This is covered in detail in Winning the Game

So effectively there are 3 prime ways to be victorious. First, that actual majority of votes to become Chancellor. Second, achieving any rank at all is a win, and third, obviously the higher your score, your rank, the better you did.

With that aside complete, let's talk about another new section, reprinted:

Additional Info
Sum of Attributes 56
Avg Attrib Score 2.7
Avg Combined Score 5.3
Locations in Play 55
Militia Units 10

Everyone has an 8 right now, but that will change, and player will know what the total is... this can be handy info since if you see the score is one less than it should be, based on sold schools, someone probably just jumped to a 5, you'll have to keep track of how many school slots sold on your own of course, this merely sums peoples abilities in their chunk of my spreadsheet. The next two are merely that divided by players, and then doubled, there for information purposes, that average should climb to 3 in the next few rounds.

Locations in play requires a note. Whereas Primary Assets keeps track of all the luxuries and standard assets owned by players and planets does the same, this actually lists all the current real locations, not including Katain and a couple NPC worlds that are 'building', it includes any place that can currently be attacked by a player - homeworlds, electors, etc but would not include auction items, it would include those 'unowned' luxuries and assets that got liquidated while they cycle around to return to play. After the extra raids end major NPC's come into play - Great houses or other large groups who aren't trying for Chancellor. We'll have more on this in round 3 and introduce the 'Grudge' rules then. These exist primarily to keep players from going on non-stop re-liquidation crusades or passing a few valuable assets around for 'liquidation farming', e.g. a couple players select two or three things with a high Liquid Value and share them by leaping conquest forces to one each round, liquidating it and leaping to the next while someone else lands on it and does the same, over and over, potential doing this every round, or even multiple times a round. Generally Locations in play will not exceed player owned locations by too much, but it will be greater. Currently, the players control roughly 40 locations - mixed between planets, electors, primary assets, etc.

Militia - much like locations this indicates militia units that are currently assigned somewhere, does not necessarily indicate how many the player's control but in fact, player's control exactly 10 militia at the moment. NPCs won't generally use militia unless the location has them, so if someone has liquidates a place with militia, the NPC owner will have them, though there is no rule preventing NPC originated locations from having militia, I don't expect some pirate base (poor planet for instance) to have militia, just legions.

So a few things for players to consider - and I think, probably to discuss. Nothing requires players to ever say a single thing in the thread besides a minimum "Here" once a round before phase 1 ends - though it is strategically wise in my opinion to start talking more to each other in the thread, and I should note that general activity is a factor in Prestige VP awards. Everyone is very active of course, I have received about 70~80 NB's thus far in the game and would expect that to be fairly normal for rounds, I would suggest trying to post at least as much text into the game as you NB me :P
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
This message last edited by Isaac on 12/01/2011 at 04:25:35 AM
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Dune: Round 2 - 11/01/2011 03:33:07 AM 1237 Views
Crisis - 11/01/2011 03:33:39 AM 782 Views
Forecast - 11/01/2011 03:34:03 AM 754 Views
Auction Log and Results - 11/01/2011 03:34:21 AM 970 Views
Player Vote Tracker - 11/01/2011 03:34:38 AM 805 Views
Votes! Grand Ball and Chancellor's Challenge have been passed - 11/01/2011 05:06:36 PM 869 Views
Pirate Vote Tracker - 13/01/2011 07:41:42 PM 682 Views
Court Gossip Log - 11/01/2011 03:35:11 AM 929 Views
Incidentally... - 12/01/2011 05:50:01 AM 917 Views
CHOAM Auction Round 2 Phase 1 - 11/01/2011 03:35:53 AM 910 Views
E2B - Agricultural Fief - 1 Militia (Min Bid 2000 MS, Inc 50 MS) - 11/01/2011 04:17:53 AM 879 Views
2000 MS - Edited because of mistype, read 200 MS originally. *NM* - 11/01/2011 11:33:08 PM 619 Views
2050 MS *NM* - 13/01/2011 01:58:12 AM 381 Views
2100 MS *NM* - 13/01/2011 11:38:52 AM 470 Views
EDIT: 2100 MS - Invalid bid, my stupidity - 13/01/2011 11:43:24 AM 762 Views
Wait, what is 9 PM EST time in GMT +2? this one closed before my second bid, right? *NM* - 13/01/2011 11:40:26 AM 403 Views
I checked it. thats 4 AM my time. - 13/01/2011 11:42:50 AM 705 Views
Ouch - 13/01/2011 12:17:33 PM 714 Views
Too bad we don't have a chat room- that'd be perfect for outcry *NM* - 13/01/2011 04:47:34 PM 885 Views
Rich Planet - Parmentier, Min Bid 3000 MS, 50 MS increment - 11/01/2011 04:20:34 AM 937 Views
3000 MS *NM* - 11/01/2011 02:26:00 PM 444 Views
3100 MS *NM* - 11/01/2011 03:13:03 PM 425 Views
3300 MS *NM* - 11/01/2011 04:00:49 PM 489 Views
3350 MS *NM* - 11/01/2011 10:58:22 PM 432 Views
3400 MS *NM* - 11/01/2011 11:30:49 PM 499 Views
3450 MS *NM* - 12/01/2011 12:50:32 AM 499 Views
Pah, minimum bids. 3600 MS *NM* - 12/01/2011 02:28:44 AM 514 Views
They're pretty abitrary for non-LiqVal items *NM* - 12/01/2011 02:56:49 AM 449 Views
I think he was just Pahing the fact that we're bidding the minimum increments *NM* - 12/01/2011 02:34:42 PM 512 Views
Quite probably - this seems a good point to mentioning Horizontal scroll in bidding wars - 12/01/2011 02:59:56 PM 710 Views
But I like horizontal scroll! *NM* - 12/01/2011 03:13:41 PM 459 Views
Exactly. I'm trying to destroy the status quo. - 13/01/2011 06:06:18 AM 742 Views
3650 MS *NM* - 12/01/2011 07:47:15 AM 504 Views
3700 MS *NM* - 12/01/2011 02:33:41 PM 441 Views
3750 MS *NM* - 12/01/2011 04:23:05 PM 464 Views
3850 MS *NM* - 12/01/2011 07:04:46 PM 418 Views
3900 MS *NM* - 13/01/2011 01:57:57 AM 377 Views
Cut that out! 4400 MS! *NM* - 13/01/2011 06:17:52 AM 368 Views
I'm tempted to offer 4450... But not now. - 13/01/2011 11:35:00 AM 793 Views
I will though. 4450 MS. *NM* - 13/01/2011 02:18:03 PM 472 Views
4500 MS *NM* - 13/01/2011 04:04:46 PM 394 Views
HZ scroll - last bid 4500 *NM* - 13/01/2011 06:29:59 PM 482 Views
4550 MS *NM* - 14/01/2011 11:46:43 PM 469 Views
Round 1 Phase 1 has begun - 11/01/2011 04:57:21 AM 766 Views
Let's look at forecasts - 12/01/2011 04:24:46 AM 1093 Views
Court Gossip - 11/01/2011 05:40:30 AM 822 Views
Vote: Hold Grand Ball *NM* - 11/01/2011 02:27:56 PM 450 Views
Vote: Hold Grand Ball *NM* - 11/01/2011 04:09:16 PM 476 Views
Vote: Hold Grand Ball *NM* - 11/01/2011 05:05:51 PM 471 Views
Vote: Hold Grand Ball *NM* - 11/01/2011 11:32:35 PM 469 Views
Hmmm. Debate? - 11/01/2011 05:20:59 PM 735 Views
Yeaah - 11/01/2011 05:47:12 PM 803 Views
Re: Yeaah - 11/01/2011 06:23:44 PM 797 Views
Well, as for the Crisis- is everyone pretty firm in what they're voting for? Dunno if I am - 12/01/2011 05:45:11 AM 718 Views
Well I wouldn't mind listening to some persuasive arguments, if anybody has some to offer. - 12/01/2011 05:51:48 AM 772 Views
This crisis is a no-brainer. - 12/01/2011 03:12:21 PM 758 Views
Good analysis. - 12/01/2011 04:06:20 PM 705 Views
Court Gossip - Chancellor’s Challenge - 12/01/2011 09:20:43 AM 1127 Views
Vote: Accept Chancellor’s Challenge *NM* - 12/01/2011 02:31:59 PM 461 Views
Vote: Accept Challenge *NM* - 12/01/2011 04:06:51 PM 394 Views
Vote: Accept Chancellor's Challenge. (Erm...?) - 12/01/2011 05:46:38 PM 756 Views
I was attacked by the Bandits of Surewood Forest - 12/01/2011 07:08:16 PM 772 Views
I think "pirates" just means "NPC raiders" - 12/01/2011 07:35:04 PM 665 Views
According to Court Gossip, it would be the Brigands of Bendar - 12/01/2011 09:45:36 PM 769 Views
I was attacked by the Brigands of Bendar last night. - 13/01/2011 07:17:27 PM 697 Views
Vote: Accept Chancellor's Challenge. *NM* - 12/01/2011 07:05:23 PM 499 Views
Vote: Accept Challenge *NM* - 12/01/2011 08:08:48 PM 458 Views
Pirate Name: Pirates of Carib Ion Sea *NM* - 12/01/2011 09:51:25 PM 432 Views
(Others should do this, too) - 13/01/2011 07:31:09 AM 694 Views
I thought that as Adjutant General you could simply report our conclusions. *NM* - 14/01/2011 06:02:38 AM 437 Views
4 players have to "confirm" the names HINT HINT - 14/01/2011 08:21:23 AM 640 Views
Yeah, I did so below. I was explaining why I didn't do so earlier. *NM* - 14/01/2011 07:15:00 PM 468 Views
"Pirate Name: Pirates of Carib Ion Sea" Yes, 4 of you have to do this for each pirate group *NM* - 14/01/2011 04:05:29 AM 401 Views
Pirate Name: Pirates of Carib Ion Sea *NM* - 14/01/2011 05:33:45 AM 435 Views
Pirate Name: Bandits of Surewood Forest *NM* - 14/01/2011 05:34:11 AM 401 Views
Pirate Name: Brigands of Bendar *NM* - 14/01/2011 05:34:38 AM 450 Views
Pirate Name: Brigands of Bendar *NM* - 14/01/2011 01:53:23 PM 467 Views
Pirate Name: Bandits of Surewood Forest *NM* - 14/01/2011 01:53:03 PM 428 Views
Pirate Name: Pirates of Carib Ion Sea *NM* - 14/01/2011 01:52:43 PM 428 Views
Pirate Name: Pirates of Carib Ion Sea - 14/01/2011 06:47:25 PM 713 Views
I think that makes 4 of us for every name. - 15/01/2011 12:02:20 AM 759 Views
Oh, he already has. Nevermind then. - 15/01/2011 12:03:30 AM 916 Views
CHOAM Auction Round 2 Phase 1 - 13/01/2011 02:13:36 AM 855 Views
All reports out now - 13/01/2011 03:08:33 AM 677 Views
Court Gossip - 13/01/2011 04:18:26 AM 690 Views
About bidding - 13/01/2011 01:03:40 PM 911 Views
Pirate Name: Brigands of Bendar *NM* - 13/01/2011 07:40:53 PM 484 Views
Pirate Name: Bandits of Surewood Forest *NM* - 14/01/2011 05:48:23 AM 449 Views
Battle Plans - 14/01/2011 02:44:01 PM 729 Views
As for the money... (and a couple other things) - 14/01/2011 06:05:04 PM 755 Views
I agree with this arrangement. *NM* - 14/01/2011 07:14:16 PM 557 Views
Weird. I thought I replied to this. Hm. Anyway, I could attack one of the pirate Strongholds. *NM* - 14/01/2011 08:17:00 PM 435 Views
Cool. I can get another one. *NM* - 14/01/2011 09:42:53 PM 455 Views
I'll get the third. *NM* - 14/01/2011 10:32:02 PM 405 Views
So yeah, we need 3 volunteers with decent Diplomacy/Intrigue stats - 14/01/2011 09:43:58 PM 717 Views
As stated above, I will be one of them - 15/01/2011 12:54:44 AM 769 Views
So is anyone else investigating pirates? - 16/01/2011 02:28:06 AM 793 Views
I guess I could do one. *NM* - 16/01/2011 02:43:05 AM 435 Views
Which group do you want? - 16/01/2011 04:41:04 AM 711 Views
Late Auction Results - 15/01/2011 02:26:03 AM 791 Views
Looming Crises - Round Ends 9 PM EST Sunday - 15/01/2011 02:27:48 AM 872 Views
Some More Notes - 15/01/2011 03:47:59 AM 715 Views
I'd be all for condensing it into one auction phase - 15/01/2011 04:07:56 AM 782 Views
It'd be fairer for players like Bergioyn who aren't present near the deadline though. - 15/01/2011 04:18:19 AM 762 Views
I think a better solution would be to randomize the deadlines - 15/01/2011 04:47:43 AM 742 Views
That's true enough. *NM* - 15/01/2011 04:56:09 AM 402 Views
That's a possibility - 15/01/2011 05:32:55 AM 686 Views
Hm... - 15/01/2011 07:13:06 AM 791 Views
Okay, expected changes - 15/01/2011 05:29:31 AM 825 Views
Probably a short delay on processing - 16/01/2011 10:37:39 PM 681 Views

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