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knife hand? *confused* *NM* Yunalesca Send a noteboard - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.

Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...

We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:

Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande

I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.

3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%

2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.

Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.

Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.

So that's my thoughts for the moment.
*MySmiley*
The best things in life are weird:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Paigeofmaces

“Brave Hobo, defend me as I flee!”
I have the face of a philosopher-king
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1707 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 533 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 869 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 829 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 906 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 799 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 834 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 516 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 810 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 515 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 565 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 784 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1046 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 469 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 554 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 521 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 793 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 887 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 924 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 851 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 950 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 738 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 540 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 534 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 815 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 945 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 489 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 832 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 506 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 849 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 801 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 926 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 870 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 801 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 977 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 837 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 894 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 870 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 901 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 728 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 820 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 861 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 766 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 853 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 534 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 486 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 490 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 500 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 814 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 837 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 849 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 862 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 776 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 790 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 771 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 488 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 847 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 820 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 795 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 852 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 826 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 832 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 847 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 783 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 824 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 773 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 956 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 955 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 863 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 740 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 739 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 798 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 740 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 803 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 836 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 717 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 470 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 779 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 829 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 672 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 806 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 892 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 685 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 841 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 765 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 797 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 515 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 807 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 823 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 898 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 834 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 813 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 812 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 500 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 781 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 778 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 491 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 857 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 502 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 804 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 817 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 800 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 781 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 500 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 753 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 514 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 481 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 495 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 458 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 789 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 711 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 505 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 570 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 870 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 934 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 444 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 549 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 742 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 807 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 804 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 819 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 818 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 769 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 865 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 799 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 979 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 832 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 790 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 843 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 797 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 791 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 759 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 782 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 787 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 829 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 824 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 810 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 720 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 856 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 805 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 826 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 852 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 809 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 876 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 484 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 864 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 835 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 815 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 855 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 827 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 466 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1059 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 830 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 822 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 805 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 869 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 751 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 869 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 806 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 711 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 634 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 377 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 701 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1358 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 787 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 862 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 812 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 821 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 850 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 784 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 865 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 787 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 802 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 988 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 760 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 922 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 715 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 715 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 790 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 863 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 815 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 836 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 919 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 776 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 770 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 821 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 847 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 794 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 844 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 883 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 755 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 803 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 833 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 806 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 775 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 808 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 827 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1031 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 527 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 824 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 751 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 528 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 835 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 917 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 837 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 500 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 784 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 484 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 504 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 835 Views

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