I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.
Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...
We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:
Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande
I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.
3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%
2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.
Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.
Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.
So that's my thoughts for the moment.
Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...
We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:
Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
?
Ranagrande
I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.
3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%
2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.
Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.
Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.
So that's my thoughts for the moment.
*MySmiley*
The best things in life are weird:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Paigeofmaces
“Brave Hobo, defend me as I flee!”
I have the face of a philosopher-king
The best things in life are weird:
https://www.youtube.com/user/Paigeofmaces
“Brave Hobo, defend me as I flee!”

I have the face of a philosopher-king
RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM
- 1781 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM*
15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM
- 576 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad.
15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM
- 949 Views
Arrrgggh
15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
- 915 Views

Re: Arrrgggh
15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
- 994 Views

plus...
15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM
- 883 Views
Voting Record
18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM
- 891 Views
Moving along
15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
- 1136 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM*
15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
- 506 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM
- 936 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM
- 1030 Views
my current suspects
15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM
- 1037 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM*
15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM
- 527 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits
18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM
- 980 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye
18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM
- 804 Views
I can
18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM
- 903 Views
Nay
18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM
- 944 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay?
18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM
- 947 Views
We need to come up with a plan
19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM
- 926 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA:
19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM
- 902 Views
? is the logical target
19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM
- 894 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM
- 924 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM
- 876 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch?
20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM
- 910 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA
20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM
- 861 Views
I think I have a plan
20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
- 1042 Views
...erm...
20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM
- 1015 Views
Crypto tricks
20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM
- 953 Views
Some thoughts...
19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM
- 822 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast
19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM
- 852 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders
20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM
- 984 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM
- 922 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM
- 892 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM
- 864 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly...
21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM
- 871 Views
That is correct. *NM*
21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM
- 530 Views
im still not clear on the key thing.
21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM
- 886 Views
Okay
21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM
- 907 Views
Re: Okay
21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM
- 862 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM*
21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM
- 534 Views
horsefeathers
21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
- 843 Views

It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM*
21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM
- 544 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this.
*NM*
21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
- 491 Views

List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table)
21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM
- 1026 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM*
21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM
- 482 Views
A couple Questions
21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM
- 882 Views
On this whole decryption thing though...
21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM
- 960 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting?
22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM
- 865 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes?
22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM
- 874 Views
what now?
22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM
- 810 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now
22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM
- 941 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people.
23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM
- 910 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM
- 946 Views
Why is that so suspicious?
23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM
- 892 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true
23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM
- 954 Views
Cause people tend to accentuate the negative, they seek to form patterns, and they like exaggerating *NM*
24/09/2010 05:07:13 AM
- 600 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM
- 953 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now
23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM
- 911 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too
23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM
- 952 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM
- 956 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM
- 895 Views
eh, what the heck
24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM
- 792 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
24/09/2010 05:13:50 AM
- 543 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM
- 412 Views
other factors make me think otherwise
24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM
- 785 Views
right, mine
24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM
- 946 Views
Re: right, mine
24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM
- 894 Views
EPWOP
24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM
- 904 Views
Re: EPWOP
24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM
- 939 Views
Okay, that squares
24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM
- 869 Views
Re: Okay, that squares
24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM
- 951 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM
- 788 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM
- 863 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame
25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM
- 1002 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM
- 857 Views
EBWOP
25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM
- 852 Views
It's probably also worth noting
25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM
- 897 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM
- 928 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens
26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM
- 967 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up
26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM
- 829 Views
Yes, they can be tricky
26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM
- 858 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky
26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM
- 918 Views
not to mention...
26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM
- 891 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM
- 559 Views
I mean can we just lynch him without going through the procedure if he'll just give up?
26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
- 1031 Views

Somebody want to hammer?
26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM
- 917 Views