I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.
Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...
We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:
Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande
I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.
3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%
2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.
Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.
Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.
So that's my thoughts for the moment.
Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...
We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:
Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
?
Ranagrande
I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.
3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%
2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.
Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.
Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.
So that's my thoughts for the moment.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM
- 1777 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM*
15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM
- 573 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad.
15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM
- 945 Views
Arrrgggh
15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM
- 914 Views

Re: Arrrgggh
15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM
- 991 Views

plus...
15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM
- 880 Views
Voting Record
18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM
- 889 Views
Moving along
15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
- 1132 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM*
15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM
- 503 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM
- 934 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas
15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM
- 1026 Views
my current suspects
15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM
- 1033 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM*
15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM
- 525 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits
18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM
- 979 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye
18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM
- 802 Views
I can
18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM
- 900 Views
Nay
18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM
- 941 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay?
18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM
- 943 Views
We need to come up with a plan
19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM
- 920 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA:
19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM
- 900 Views
? is the logical target
19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM
- 891 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM
- 921 Views
Re: ? is the logical target
20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM
- 872 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch?
20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM
- 909 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA
20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM
- 858 Views
I think I have a plan
20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM
- 1039 Views
...erm...
20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM
- 1011 Views
Crypto tricks
20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM
- 950 Views
Some thoughts...
19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM
- 817 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast
19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM
- 850 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders
20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM
- 980 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM
- 919 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM
- 890 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot.
21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM
- 862 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly...
21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM
- 869 Views
That is correct. *NM*
21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM
- 528 Views
im still not clear on the key thing.
21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM
- 884 Views
Okay
21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM
- 903 Views
Re: Okay
21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM
- 858 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM*
21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM
- 532 Views
horsefeathers
21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM
- 839 Views

It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM*
21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM
- 543 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this.
*NM*
21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM
- 488 Views

List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table)
21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM
- 1022 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM*
21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM
- 478 Views
A couple Questions
21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM
- 879 Views
On this whole decryption thing though...
21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM
- 958 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting?
22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM
- 864 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes?
22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM
- 869 Views
what now?
22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM
- 807 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now
22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM
- 937 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people.
23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM
- 908 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM
- 939 Views
Why is that so suspicious?
23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM
- 887 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true
23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM
- 949 Views
Cause people tend to accentuate the negative, they seek to form patterns, and they like exaggerating *NM*
24/09/2010 05:07:13 AM
- 598 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game
23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM
- 948 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now
23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM
- 906 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too
23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM
- 950 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM
- 953 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine
24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM
- 890 Views
eh, what the heck
24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM
- 790 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
24/09/2010 05:13:50 AM
- 539 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM*
24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM
- 409 Views
other factors make me think otherwise
24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM
- 783 Views
right, mine
24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM
- 942 Views
Re: right, mine
24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM
- 888 Views
EPWOP
24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM
- 900 Views
Re: EPWOP
24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM
- 937 Views
Okay, that squares
24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM
- 865 Views
Re: Okay, that squares
24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM
- 947 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM
- 783 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET
24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM
- 857 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame
25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM
- 999 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM
- 855 Views
EBWOP
25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM
- 849 Views
It's probably also worth noting
25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM
- 893 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame
26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM
- 925 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens
26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM
- 965 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up
26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM
- 826 Views
Yes, they can be tricky
26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM
- 856 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky
26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM
- 915 Views
not to mention...
26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM
- 883 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM*
26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM
- 557 Views
I mean can we just lynch him without going through the procedure if he'll just give up?
26/09/2010 07:33:38 PM
- 1026 Views

Somebody want to hammer?
26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM
- 913 Views