Active Users:346 Time:08/04/2025 12:09:40 AM
Moving along Isaac Send a noteboard - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM
I'm surprised by the DK choice, not a great one actually. All three of the people we sent on the treasure hunt voted for the BA lynch, so in their shoes I'd have wanted to preserve the 'treasure hunters replaced by ninjas' option, whacking one of them, especially when suspicion today will fall most strongly on those who voted for BA, not a great tactical move, IMO, maybe they had some stronger info. Whichever the case, on average you're best served when scummer by whacking someone who didn't vote for a botched lynch. Of course, as voters to be NK'd go, she's a fairly logic choice.

Whichever, with two of our most active posters dead and another modding, a slightly more reckless play style seems appropriate, if for no better reason then to ensure a decent posting frequency, so...

We had 7 people vote for BA, one of whom is now dead, leaving in order of vote:

Isaac
Fox and Ravens
Beetnemesis
Yunalesca
Darth Katie
?
Ranagrande

I'm gonna say up front, I don't think Beet's a scummer, he chimed in about the 'no ninja' thing very quickly, and that's a pretty serious risk, no guarantees, Beet's definitely the gambling sort, but I'm dubious, dubious enough not to make him def-town but he's not neutral IMO, semi-prob-town at least. To that, I have information from a reliable source that indicates Yunalesca is not our killer, and statistically considerably less likely to be scum than random, though it can't be completely ruled out.

3 Scum
3/10 to be scum, 2 in 3 not to be chosen attacker, 6/30 or 20% she's scum, 20% vs 30% flat random, from know-self-as-town that's actually 3/9 for 6/27 or 22.2% vs 33.3%

2 Scum
2/10 to be scum, 1 in 2 not to be chosen attacker, 2/20 or 10% she's scum vs 20% random player, again, modified 2/9x1/2 11/1% vs 22.2%.

Its actually a little lower than that though, in terms of odds, amongst other factors Yunalesca has shown a preference for being the knife hand, whereas I for instance deliberately avoid it especially on early night for fear of tracking, RBing etc. Anyway, may be scum, but not DK's killer. So I'm moving her to my semi-prob-town category, which may as well be prob-town since my next tier, def town, is typically reserved for dead players only.

Now, we definitely shouldn't work under the assumption that our non-voters are all pure white snow, we've had bad lynches go off where the majority of scummers didn't vote for the person, and its pretty normal for one scummer to get nervous about a vote they expect might be held against them or just not to be around, if you look at our list of non-voters, its got a big measure of fairly inactive players, and scum can be less active too. Whichever, I think we should assume at least one, possibly two or three, of our voters for BA are scum, and I think the shortlist would be Fox, ranagrande, and ? To be honest my two big suspects going into last night were Yuna and DK, I still feel strongly that the scummers wouldn't have let that treasure hunt go unsupervised if they could, and ? was nominated by BA, a confirmed townie. Of course Yuna was nominated by herself but randomly selected by myself, and BA might have picked a DF unknowingly, in either case they might have lucked out, so to speak, and not needed to draw suspicion openly backing someone. ? was realistically as suspicious as Yuna, since he might be scum and just lucked out by drawing an eye and a vote from BA. Its also possible they didn't send anyone. Needless to say I was suspicious as hell when I noticed all three of our treasure hunters voted in a line, 4th, 5th, and 6th, for BA's lynch, once that went bad, so I was favoring the 'converted to ninjas' hypothesis as a decent probability, obviously that premise is disproven by DK's death.

So that's my thoughts for the moment.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 05:39:03 AM 1777 Views
ARRRRRRR *NM* - 15/09/2010 06:44:52 AM 573 Views
Omg. This reply cracked me up so bad. - 15/09/2010 12:34:38 PM 945 Views
Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 12:50:18 PM 914 Views
Re: Arrrgggh - 15/09/2010 01:29:15 PM 991 Views
plus... - 15/09/2010 01:50:44 PM 880 Views
The grave is no bar to my call!! - 15/09/2010 06:15:53 PM 911 Views
*giggle* *NM* - 17/09/2010 03:42:33 PM 544 Views
Voting Record - 18/09/2010 05:41:39 AM 889 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:27:41 PM 547 Views
oops, meant to post that to the main topic. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:31:09 PM 596 Views
they what the what??? - 15/09/2010 08:07:08 AM 856 Views
Moving along - 15/09/2010 02:47:27 PM 1132 Views
knife hand? *confused* *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:25:01 PM 503 Views
You like being the one to kill people. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:48:56 PM 585 Views
oh *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:59:03 PM 553 Views
Yes - 16/09/2010 12:47:50 AM 874 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:10:51 AM 964 Views
Re: Yes - 16/09/2010 01:49:18 AM 1006 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 04:06:10 PM 934 Views
Re: RAFO Mafia 18 - Day 2: Mystery on the High Seas - 15/09/2010 06:23:19 PM 1026 Views
Sorry bout Yesterday. - 15/09/2010 07:56:22 PM 820 Views
Eh, hindsight is 20/20, but I think we overreacted *NM* - 15/09/2010 09:03:27 PM 581 Views
Haha. Apparantly so...still. I didn't like what he said. *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:19:35 PM 581 Views
You're just annoyed that I voted for you! - 17/09/2010 04:06:11 PM 895 Views
my current suspects - 15/09/2010 09:52:52 PM 1033 Views
How is that a tactic? *NM* - 15/09/2010 10:21:04 PM 525 Views
It's a great tactic - 16/09/2010 04:41:38 AM 909 Views
Fair enough. *NM* - 16/09/2010 10:28:58 PM 544 Views
Definitely. White Flame has been almost nonexistent. - 15/09/2010 11:23:21 PM 933 Views
yeah, its pretty odd. - 16/09/2010 12:42:01 AM 884 Views
Re: my current suspects - 16/09/2010 03:31:41 AM 1006 Views
Expanding the list - 16/09/2010 05:37:24 AM 958 Views
Sorry All - 16/09/2010 10:27:08 PM 883 Views
19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:00:14 AM 1067 Views
Re: 19? damn - 17/09/2010 03:40:03 AM 916 Views
Really sorry about the lack of contributions - 18/09/2010 01:02:13 AM 969 Views
RBIRL - 17/09/2010 11:38:33 PM 944 Views
Day 2 EVENT: In High Spirits - 18/09/2010 04:53:47 AM 979 Views
I think 'Aye' is probably the best choice, Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 05:24:24 AM 802 Views
I can - 18/09/2010 05:35:29 AM 900 Views
There's no REAL downside though... - 18/09/2010 05:39:29 AM 939 Views
Re: There's no REAL downside though... - 19/09/2010 01:22:48 PM 853 Views
Nay - 18/09/2010 05:25:57 AM 941 Views
Can we get an actual reason please? *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:32:35 AM 568 Views
I just posted it in response to Isaac *NM* - 18/09/2010 05:36:03 AM 518 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 07:51:22 AM 528 Views
Aye *NM* - 18/09/2010 12:09:39 PM 530 Views
I'm going to go with Vote: Aye - 18/09/2010 02:43:26 PM 902 Views
I'm gonna go with Aye - 18/09/2010 04:16:42 PM 926 Views
Vote: Aye! - 18/09/2010 06:18:47 PM 930 Views
Any debate? Anyone in favor of Nay? - 18/09/2010 07:53:56 AM 943 Views
The vote has already reached a majority, by the way. - 18/09/2010 08:47:56 PM 859 Views
I'm not for Nay - 21/09/2010 01:25:41 AM 872 Views
Oh well too late - 21/09/2010 01:27:36 AM 860 Views
Talk Like a Pirate Day be tomorrow. Arrrr. *NM* - 18/09/2010 08:37:09 PM 509 Views
We need to come up with a plan - 19/09/2010 05:59:26 AM 920 Views
Well, here's who voted for BA: - 19/09/2010 08:04:26 AM 900 Views
? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 08:56:53 AM 891 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 19/09/2010 02:33:53 PM 941 Views
He is, but I think... - 19/09/2010 03:24:34 PM 916 Views
So what do we do until then? - 19/09/2010 11:32:45 PM 922 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 02:10:49 AM 921 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 20/09/2010 03:14:22 AM 872 Views
Who are your candidates for lynch? - 20/09/2010 03:58:04 AM 909 Views
I don't have any. Especially after my fail of a push for BA - 20/09/2010 04:35:23 AM 858 Views
I think I have a plan - 20/09/2010 06:33:29 AM 1039 Views
...erm... - 20/09/2010 07:37:16 AM 1011 Views
Crypto tricks - 20/09/2010 10:13:23 AM 950 Views
Also, there's a good chance we ALREADY lynched the cop - 20/09/2010 03:53:49 PM 821 Views
I did notice that... - 21/09/2010 07:50:20 AM 818 Views
I like this idea - 20/09/2010 07:59:31 AM 882 Views
one more thing - 20/09/2010 05:29:00 PM 829 Views
OK, cool! - 20/09/2010 04:17:50 PM 881 Views
intresting idea. - 20/09/2010 04:50:06 PM 921 Views
Alright, I can get behind this. - 20/09/2010 06:14:03 PM 795 Views
*confusion* *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:32:41 AM 501 Views
Basically, he's suggesting a mass roleclaim - 21/09/2010 06:05:34 AM 860 Views
Okay so I got my code... - 21/09/2010 08:46:16 AM 910 Views
Ok...here goes nothing... - 21/09/2010 08:55:57 PM 760 Views
Re: ? is the logical target - 21/09/2010 12:34:10 AM 888 Views
Low posting is anti-town - 20/09/2010 03:42:19 AM 976 Views
Re: Low posting is anti-town - 21/09/2010 01:29:21 AM 768 Views
hmm.. - 19/09/2010 01:18:41 PM 913 Views
Some thoughts... - 19/09/2010 01:21:56 PM 817 Views
this is the first time its happened while i've been playing atleast - 19/09/2010 04:52:13 PM 850 Views
guess so. *NM* - 20/09/2010 05:55:38 AM 554 Views
It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 19/09/2010 11:48:35 PM 894 Views
Re: It's new, but it's hard to see the downside - 20/09/2010 05:57:12 AM 902 Views
It looks like we're proceeding with the plan so a few reminders - 20/09/2010 06:35:21 PM 980 Views
Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 06:41:22 PM 919 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 20/09/2010 07:13:22 PM 890 Views
Lesse, I think I got a minute here. - 20/09/2010 07:56:48 PM 888 Views
EBWOP: Lessee, redo, class. *NM* - 20/09/2010 07:57:09 PM 539 Views
Re: Hmm. I don't think I did this exactly how you wanted, with the key and whatnot. - 21/09/2010 12:04:49 AM 862 Views
So if I'm understanding this properly... - 21/09/2010 01:38:34 AM 869 Views
That is correct. *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:44:37 AM 528 Views
Re: That is correct. - 21/09/2010 02:16:30 AM 942 Views
Same here *NM* - 21/09/2010 03:34:00 AM 524 Views
im still not clear on the key thing. - 21/09/2010 04:38:53 PM 884 Views
Okay - 21/09/2010 05:28:23 PM 903 Views
It's mostly so someone can't be super-sneaky - 21/09/2010 07:02:55 PM 878 Views
Re: Okay - 21/09/2010 07:43:39 PM 858 Views
You wanted to hint at it, not say it..... *NM* - 21/09/2010 07:46:10 PM 532 Views
horsefeathers - 21/09/2010 07:55:44 PM 839 Views
It's alright. So long as no one actually tries to decode it. :/ *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:00:17 PM 543 Views
when does that happen again? tomorrow? *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:03:24 PM 519 Views
As soon as our laggers post *NM* - 21/09/2010 08:07:23 PM 535 Views
I'm glad I'm dead so I don't have to bother with this. *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:28:46 PM 488 Views
Ghost pirate!! Ahhhhhhhhhh!!!!!! - 21/09/2010 11:48:56 PM 865 Views
I think the only thing a pirate fears ... - 22/09/2010 12:45:38 AM 791 Views
It's easy if you're not British *NM* - 21/09/2010 11:59:06 PM 536 Views
but it's fuuuuuun!!!! *NM* - 22/09/2010 08:23:03 AM 595 Views
on a completely different topic... - 21/09/2010 08:58:35 AM 952 Views
List of Codes and Roleclaims (Table) - 21/09/2010 11:25:37 AM 1022 Views
So I shouldn't code my Role now? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:45:10 PM 478 Views
Of course you should, why wouldn't you? *NM* - 21/09/2010 01:57:53 PM 581 Views
The very last person need not code, everyone else needs to - 21/09/2010 02:01:13 PM 827 Views
Oh, I misunderstood. Ok. - 21/09/2010 03:10:33 PM 887 Views
Changed-look down - 21/09/2010 10:53:21 PM 876 Views
A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:53:29 PM 879 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 21/09/2010 08:57:59 PM 901 Views
Re: A couple Questions - 22/09/2010 02:43:21 AM 852 Views
On this whole decryption thing though... - 21/09/2010 10:28:57 PM 958 Views
Well.... - 21/09/2010 11:05:57 PM 895 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 08:30:27 AM 1059 Views
Re: Well.... - 22/09/2010 02:19:46 PM 914 Views
Any idea when we are gonna start decrypting? - 22/09/2010 01:44:39 AM 864 Views
I think it's ASAP - 22/09/2010 04:07:57 AM 919 Views
Hmm ok. - 22/09/2010 11:30:55 AM 875 Views
We could do it today no? - 22/09/2010 10:57:34 PM 870 Views
Hold on I'm changing my code. - 22/09/2010 01:51:01 AM 844 Views
Wait why does it say and between my codes? - 22/09/2010 11:00:51 PM 869 Views
Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:09:17 PM 859 Views
Re: Its just a link to both - 22/09/2010 11:24:07 PM 910 Views
For the record, I will decode both, if requested. - 23/09/2010 04:49:15 AM 918 Views
My previous roleclaim code should be sufficient - 22/09/2010 11:30:12 PM 896 Views
what now? - 22/09/2010 09:27:09 PM 807 Views
Napoleon needs to roleclaim now - 22/09/2010 09:51:56 PM 937 Views
Are you talking about your "ninja shortlist?" - 22/09/2010 11:07:18 PM 885 Views
Arg... REALLY sorry people. - 23/09/2010 08:16:00 PM 908 Views
You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 09:14:46 PM 939 Views
Why is that so suspicious? - 23/09/2010 10:02:23 PM 887 Views
It's suspicious because it's not true - 23/09/2010 10:17:43 PM 949 Views
PS: ^This is my decryption. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:11:09 AM 514 Views
Re: You definitely do not get that in eveeeery game - 23/09/2010 10:27:31 PM 948 Views
Hmmm... - 23/09/2010 11:11:21 PM 912 Views
Re: Hmmm... - 24/09/2010 03:44:02 AM 887 Views
"I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:09:27 AM 931 Views
Re: "I'm roled by not a standard town role" - 24/09/2010 05:41:11 AM 903 Views
I believe I already mentioned that *NM* - 24/09/2010 08:37:01 AM 501 Views
I've been playing this game since the wotmania days - 24/09/2010 02:36:21 AM 1135 Views
To our non-participating friends: - 23/09/2010 05:28:39 AM 914 Views
Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 09:01:24 PM 906 Views
Re: Everyone can start decrypting now - 23/09/2010 10:33:08 PM 886 Views
Ok, I'll go ahead and do mine too - 23/09/2010 11:16:29 PM 950 Views
Wow that's good. - 24/09/2010 12:14:48 AM 831 Views
I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 12:45:09 AM 953 Views
Re: I was too lazy to verify beyond oxygen and flourine - 24/09/2010 02:44:11 AM 890 Views
eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:04:29 AM 790 Views
Re: eh, what the heck - 24/09/2010 03:47:31 AM 718 Views
Just out of curiosity, why do you say townie? RB could just as easily be scum, if not more so. *NM* - 24/09/2010 05:13:51 AM 409 Views
other factors make me think otherwise - 24/09/2010 06:07:31 AM 783 Views
A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 09:42:59 AM 1443 Views
Re: A good bit of analysis - 24/09/2010 02:34:02 PM 863 Views
right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:37:45 AM 942 Views
Re: right, mine - 24/09/2010 10:43:26 AM 888 Views
EPWOP - 24/09/2010 10:55:42 AM 900 Views
Re: EPWOP - 24/09/2010 12:47:47 PM 937 Views
Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:14:31 PM 865 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:22:42 PM 947 Views
Re: Okay, that squares - 24/09/2010 01:30:47 PM 869 Views
fair enough - 24/09/2010 01:58:27 PM 887 Views
Decryption - 25/09/2010 08:00:57 AM 1071 Views
All right - 25/09/2010 02:02:29 PM 812 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:06:00 PM 1003 Views
Re: All right - 25/09/2010 03:35:23 PM 789 Views
I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 06:04:26 AM 783 Views
Re: I was lazy... I used the INTERNET - 24/09/2010 02:29:29 PM 857 Views
That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 02:55:05 PM 950 Views
Re: That is potentially a huge power - 24/09/2010 03:33:43 PM 896 Views
Role Claim and Action (Table) - All claims in - 24/09/2010 01:32:53 PM 914 Views
While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 08:59:09 PM 999 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 25/09/2010 10:47:47 PM 855 Views
EBWOP - 25/09/2010 10:48:31 PM 849 Views
It's probably also worth noting - 25/09/2010 11:17:19 PM 893 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 12:39:13 AM 928 Views
Re: It's probably also worth noting - 26/09/2010 01:10:17 AM 871 Views
Re: While we're waiting on White Flame - 26/09/2010 02:47:14 AM 925 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens - 26/09/2010 03:15:38 AM 965 Views
Eh. The RC's always mess me up - 26/09/2010 03:43:54 AM 826 Views
Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:00:52 AM 856 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:33:40 AM 915 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 04:50:08 AM 887 Views
Re: Yes, they can be tricky - 26/09/2010 05:58:11 AM 848 Views
not to mention... - 26/09/2010 04:55:30 AM 883 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 05:03:35 AM 898 Views
Re: not to mention... - 26/09/2010 03:50:09 PM 1115 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 02:31:43 PM 557 Views
And what's your reason for this? - 26/09/2010 05:50:11 PM 902 Views
When I saw this... - 26/09/2010 10:07:08 PM 845 Views
I'll second this motion. Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 07:13:54 PM 561 Views
Somebody want to hammer? - 26/09/2010 09:02:17 PM 913 Views
Unless somebody vote blocked me or something - 26/09/2010 09:06:13 PM 993 Views
nobody admitted to that role, right? - 26/09/2010 09:26:30 PM 918 Views
Oh yeah, missed that. Sorry. *NM* - 26/09/2010 10:19:22 PM 534 Views
<b>Vote: Fox and Ravens</b> - 26/09/2010 09:11:27 PM 856 Views
EBWOP...aww crap. Oh well. *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:11:52 PM 519 Views
Vote: Fox and Ravens *NM* - 26/09/2010 09:30:28 PM 534 Views
Fox and Ravens has been lynched. - 26/09/2010 10:42:10 PM 924 Views

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