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Re: Ok, I can answer also from a wider long term perspective. Vodalus Send a noteboard - 18/03/2025 01:56:11 AM

View original postWhen you think about why NATO was originally created and who has and hasn't joined since then, it's been about defending Europe from the Soviet Union/Russia - during the Cold War just Western Europe, later increasingly also Eastern Europe. It's fair enough for the US to be irritated about European countries that aren't doing their part in that, especially as the US wants to redirect more of its focus to Asia and defending its other allies there. But when you think about it, the 2 percent of GDP spending norm is a weird way of measuring that. In the end what's really needed is for Europe to be able to defend itself without needing the US, or needing the US only in extreme scenarios like if Russia would resort to nuclear weapons.

We’re on the same page here until you get to the part about the 2% of GDP goal. Since the US probably hits 6-8% of its GDP on defense spending, 2% never should’ve seemed so unreasonable. The DoD budget runs 3-4%, but the government hides some of its spending elsewhere. For example, the budgets of the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Veterans Affairs are directly and fully defense expenditures. The Department of Energy covers America’s expenses for nuclear weapons and the Department of the Treasury handles retirement pay for eligible vets. Those are what I can remember off the top of my head. The big one, however, is that around 1/3 of our debt service payment is due to defense. As to your last sentence, yes, but now out of necessity rather than being a choice. And don’t get me wrong, I think it would have been possible and infinitely preferable to come to such an arrangement in a civil manner. Trump wants to sell the idea of geopolitics as a reality show with him as the star, the only star save maybe for Putin in a supporting role.



View original postWhen I say it doesn't matter what anyone outside the US says, I mean that the US will make its own decisions, as it should, and it's not healthy for Europe to rely this much on the US and get so panicky when it looks like that support is going to be withdrawn.

Agreed.


View original postI'm not sure what frustration and anger you're talking about... but since you're aware of America's nuclear sharing policy, you'll also understand why the idea of France and/or the UK sharing their nukes with other European countries doesn't seem particularly shocking or revolutionary. I think many Americans maybe don't realize to what extent the European Union is in fact a union and many people feel a connection to other member states that's not much weaker than the connection between, I don't know, New Yorkers and Californians. Though certainly that feeling of pan-European connection is much stronger among certain groups than others, varying wildly depending on age, education level, place of residence and other factors.

No? Then the frustration and anger were probably mine. I have a bad habit of coming here and posting on occasions when I’m not fully sober. My mistake. And it’s the proximity of Poland to Russia that causes my concern. Mookie explained this bit well. I don’t want Russian nukes in Cuba or Venezuela or on UAV vehicles on harbor floors. The window of time from launch detection warning to verifying that warning and then deciding how to best proceed is negligible, maybe no more than a few minutes. And then there’s the matter of spy satellites and information sharing. The combined number of spy satellites of all non-US NATO countries is but a fraction of America’s. Quality is a factor as well. It’s not just a matter of plopping a few nukes in silos or on TELS, or whatever the chosen method is to protect or conceal the weapons.

ETA: Come to think of it, I read nothing on the location/basing of the missiles. Is the intention to actually have them on German and Polish soil?

ETA II: Turns out America shares its B61 bomb, basing them in a select number of countries but with America retaining control over them. As to the bombs, they are gravity bombs dropped from jets, jets such as the F35 and some of European manufacture. They’re also tactical nukes with a variable blast yield ability ranging from under 1kt up to 400kt. By way of comparison, the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki had yields of 15kt and 21kt respectively. I’m not sure what, exactly, Germany and Poland would like to have or what France and the UK would be willing to offer.



View original postJapan seems like the most trustworthy new nuclear power for obvious reasons - though for those same reasons, its population might also be the most fervently against that idea. What's clear is that the world is becoming more multi-polar than it has been for a long time, or even ever before. And if only some of those powers or blocs have nuclear weapons, not even the most important ones but rather the ones that were either important in the past (i.e. Russia) or have always been small but managed to obtain nuclear weapon technology because they felt they needed it (Israel, North Korea, South Africa in the past, Iran's steps in that direction), that does seem like a problematic imbalance. Obviously I'd want that to be resolved by reducing the number of nuclear weapon owners, not increasing it, but I don't see any realistic non-violent path to getting all nukes out of the hands of Russia or North Korea (and as for Israel, only in the event of a true and lasting peaceful solution to their conflict, which to put it mildly isn't looking very close at hand at the moment).

For this bit I didn’t mean countries I’d support or accept as nuclear powers, rather, the ones that are likely to do so out of security concerns. But agreed on Japan, which already has a massive amount of Plutonium that was purchased from France decades ago, ostensibly for use in the Monju fast breeder reactor. As to the national sentiment, yes, but the resistance is stronger the closer you get to Hiroshima and with the older generations who had loved ones that suffered the bombing. I assume the same is true of Nagasaki but I never went there or talked with anyone from the vicinity on this subject. I will add that Japanese history has a number of instances where the national mood changed pretty much overnight, just like that.

Yeah, I think a world without nukes will return us to the industrialized warfare of yesteryear.


View original postMy biggest concern with regards to nuclear proliferation is probably India and Pakistan though, more than Saudi Arabia and Iran, because Pakistan is an even more unstable country, the Modi government has its nasty Islamophobic side, they have a nasty shared history and even more ongoing disputes and conflicts that could flare up into a full-blown war.

The scary about Pakistan when it comes to WMD is that they use a poor man’s version of submarines to conceal the nukes from India. They’re driven around the country in semi trailers. Balochs and Sindhis have a lot of issues with the Punjabis running the show. So domestic terrorism concerns in addition to international ones — and state-sponsored sometimes.

南無阿弥陀仏!
This message last edited by Vodalus on 18/03/2025 at 04:23:21 AM
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This reads like a Jeremy Strong character running for minor office *NM* - 14/03/2025 10:54:47 AM 7 Views
I guess I should reply also here. - 11/03/2025 11:21:16 PM 37 Views
Re: I guess I should reply also here. - 12/03/2025 01:35:49 AM 32 Views
Ok, I can answer also from a wider long term perspective. - 14/03/2025 08:05:10 AM 29 Views
Re: Ok, I can answer also from a wider long term perspective. - 18/03/2025 01:56:11 AM 30 Views
Re: Ok, I can answer also from a wider long term perspective. - 18/03/2025 07:25:45 PM 22 Views
I think it's largely irrelevant now - 14/03/2025 11:14:10 AM 37 Views
You’re probably right about that. - 18/03/2025 04:50:24 AM 31 Views
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