Active Users:783 Time:24/11/2024 08:18:43 PM
This post is going to age poorly Roland00 Send a noteboard - 02/03/2020 08:27:24 PM

What were the R naughts of those previous viruses?

We do not know the R naught of this current virus but we have estimates and what we do know is that it is much more contagious than the flu, in an exponential way, and also that it has a higher death rate of the flu. Now trying to assign precise R naught and Death Rates to this new virus we do not have all we know is that it is way worse than the flu and assigning precise numbers will not occur until we have this situation under control.

And once we have it under control most common people will stop caring about this virus, even if the researchers will still care and take it as a learning experience. This is because the common person has very little agency in the decision making process. This is the same fundamental problem with politics where an individual person has very little control of the outcome and thus the only people who do care either derive power from politics, or they treat politics like sport. What I am saying here is there is something wrong with the brains of the people who hypercare about this issue either for or against when they have very little control of the outcome. There is a point where if you are a common person you just have to do this ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ and hope the people with power got your back and make wise decisions, you have to hope the elite make the right decisions.

------




We know one more thing about this new virus. It is asymmetric with its danger risk with older population have an order of magnitude higher death rates than people who are 50 and younger. We also know it is asymmetric where certain people with certain health conditions are more likely to die. It is not an equal 2% or whatever magical number you put on this. (We really do not know if its a 2% fatality rate yet.)

Here is way out of date information (from 2 weeks ago) that makes the point I am making here in a nice bar graph.

https://www.statista.com/chart/20860/coronavirus-fatality-rate-by-age/

When things are asymmetric with death rate, who gets sick etc it is really bad for two reasons. It destroys social trust, but also it helps spread the disease further for some people may not realize they are sick yet they infect other people who get really sick and die. That is part of the tragedy of life though. I say this as a person with my own autoimmune problems. ¯\_(ツ)_

------



What stresses a person out is unique to them and everyone gets stressed but you can't just say you are not allowed to be stressed out by these things for that is not how the human body / brain works. Yet people want to tell other people stop being stressed out, or you need to pay attention more. This is not about stress when people do this, it is about social control and social influence of the room.

People should stop trying to do that for in the end it is treating people like objects when you do so. It does not solve the problem, it does not get rid of the stress, all you are doing is hurting each other like two hedgehogs trying to hug but they are not paying attention to each other's quills.

What was that Ursula Quote again? (Uses two different ones.)


“Only in silence the word,
Only in dark the light,
Only in dying life:
Bright the hawk's flight
On the empty sky.


“For a word to be spoken,” Ged answered slowly, “there must be silence. Before [the word], and after [the word].”

Put another way when you are only speaking and sharing the news without figuring out what part of the news is relevant to the individual. When you are only broadcasting, you are not having a conversation. A conversation requires speaking and listening, much like to even say a single word there must be silence between the word being spoken and after the word being spoken or else it is all chaos and nonsense.

This message last edited by Roland00 on 02/03/2020 at 08:31:44 PM
Reply to message
Let's talk about influenza outbreaks in the USA - copied from my post on Facebook EDIT - 02/03/2020 05:47:12 PM 484 Views
This post is going to age poorly - 02/03/2020 08:27:24 PM 229 Views
Perhaps it will, perhaps it won't - 02/03/2020 08:57:54 PM 235 Views
This is why you can not be neutral - 02/03/2020 09:33:08 PM 214 Views
The panic isn't wholly unwarranted... - 03/03/2020 06:20:23 AM 229 Views
IIRC, it was originally believed the H1N1 virus in 2009 was the Spanish Flu come around again. - 03/03/2020 12:56:45 PM 238 Views
Italy has a large sample size and have 5% fatally rate - 12/03/2020 06:21:02 PM 308 Views
Age is another factor. But quality of medical care is not. - 12/03/2020 06:29:34 PM 209 Views
What I am most curious is to understand how many have been infected with the virus actually. - 03/03/2020 05:54:10 PM 235 Views
Indeed - 03/03/2020 06:10:40 PM 220 Views
How many people never develop any symptoms at all? - 04/03/2020 05:43:16 PM 221 Views
Take a trip to Singapore - 04/03/2020 06:03:08 PM 222 Views
There are people with the virus without a fever - 04/03/2020 06:17:09 PM 233 Views
You may want that knowledge but no one has that knowledge - 04/03/2020 11:03:18 PM 213 Views
So on May 1st, and May 30th we will know if this post age poorly or not. - 07/03/2020 05:42:19 AM 221 Views
Like George Carlin - 07/03/2020 02:47:13 PM 214 Views
Comparing influenza to Covid19 has little to no value - 12/03/2020 01:55:21 PM 287 Views

Reply to Message