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You realize this is a ridiculous comparison, right? Legolas Send a noteboard - 11/02/2019 06:06:55 PM

View original post"Here’s the bitter truth: According to Congressional Budget Office data, raising $32 trillion in tax revenue would require adding 36 percentage points to the marginal tax rate of every federal income taxpayer in the United States. Not just the rich — everyone. The single woman earning $82,500 and the couple earning $165,000 would see their rates soar from 24 percent to 60 percent. Ouch."

Let me count the ways this is wrong or misleading - at least when quoted on its own like this.

Firstly, note the word 'marginal' - we're not talking about paying 60 percent on your entire income.

Secondly, it seems to be calculated based on the ridiculous assumption that you can take the CBO's estimated impact of a 1 percentage point increase of the marginal tax rate, and simply multiply it by whatever it takes to get to 32 trillion (905 billion for a 1 percent increase times 36 makes 32 trillion). I'm pretty sure the impact of marginal tax rate increases isn't linear like that - so probably a 36 percent increase in the marginal tax rate wouldn't even be enough.

Thirdly and most importantly, 32 trillion over ten years, so 3.2 trillion per year or over 15 percent of total US GDP, is a crazy high number - until you compare it to the current annual US health expenditure of, er, 3.5 trillion per year, expected to grow to 5.7 trillion per year and close to 20 percent of total US GDP by 2026 (based on the article here). Which, as you may or may not know, is quite a lot higher than the percentage of GDP that most other Western countries spend on healthcare.

Which brings us to the obvious point: the cost of Medicare for All should not be viewed as additional to current healthcare spending, but as largely replacing current healthcare spending. Which at the moment is financed in part by the government, especially when it comes to the seniors covered under Medicare, but mainly by individuals buying insurance, individuals paying out of pocket, and companies buying insurance for their employees. No doubt Medicare for All would entail a gigantic increase in federal spending, but it would also entail a gigantic reduction in what individuals and companies currently pay for their healthcare.

None of that means that Medicare for All is necessarily a good or feasible proposal - and no doubt many Americans oppose it on general principle because they don't want to massively grow federal spending, regardless of whether or not that would be more efficient. Even if socialized healthcare offers equally good or better results at a significantly lower total price tag, it doesn't follow that you necessarily have a viable path to get from the current American system to 'Medicare for All' and indeed end up with better value for money. But frankly this kind of stupid apples to oranges comparison just makes you look like you're too scared to have a serious debate on that topic.

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Medicare for All - just add 36% points to your marginal tax rate - - 11/02/2019 02:30:53 PM 1063 Views
That is just to cover the additional costs. - 11/02/2019 03:36:23 PM 547 Views
Very good point! *NM* - 11/02/2019 04:07:17 PM 289 Views
But I heard we can just print some $1 Trillion coins and pay for it that way *NM* - 11/02/2019 03:38:01 PM 302 Views
All paid via Bitcoins! - 11/02/2019 04:07:46 PM 513 Views
I can't even imagine... - 11/02/2019 04:47:31 PM 562 Views
Agreed, it would destroy a lot of households. *NM* - 12/02/2019 04:59:45 AM 328 Views
You realize this is a ridiculous comparison, right? - 11/02/2019 06:06:55 PM 721 Views
Eliminating my health insurance costs benefits my employer far more than me. - 11/02/2019 06:34:44 PM 582 Views
I agree, it's not obvious where that money would go. - 11/02/2019 08:14:31 PM 561 Views
The Trump tax cuts put an extra $300 per month in my take-home pay. - 11/02/2019 08:18:04 PM 540 Views
I was talking about the corporate tax reduction part. - 11/02/2019 08:39:08 PM 574 Views
So if they just took the money your employer is already paying... *NM* - 11/02/2019 11:43:02 PM 305 Views
Mookie why can't I buy into Medicare, why do you get Medicare? - 12/02/2019 12:47:42 AM 538 Views
I do not have Medicare even though I’m old enough to qualify. - 12/02/2019 12:52:04 AM 520 Views
I repeat why can't I buy into Medicare? - 12/02/2019 01:06:26 AM 506 Views
I liked Mike Tyson’s version. - 12/02/2019 03:06:51 AM 537 Views
I never answered your question, did I? - 13/02/2019 12:33:55 AM 513 Views
Buy in, he said. - 13/02/2019 12:41:29 AM 516 Views
Less than private insurance? - 13/02/2019 12:59:44 AM 519 Views
You are making assumptions here. - 13/02/2019 01:27:12 AM 511 Views
You’re right, I am. - 13/02/2019 02:08:02 AM 531 Views
Nothing wrong with that - 13/02/2019 03:18:40 AM 525 Views
I’m sorry Roland that your experiences have been so negative. - 13/02/2019 03:33:20 AM 523 Views
by the way, I’m on my third dirty Cajun martini... - 13/02/2019 03:41:51 AM 521 Views
It is probably good that I am broke right now - 13/02/2019 04:21:37 AM 540 Views
Yup... - 13/02/2019 05:00:42 AM 515 Views
Yes , you are right - 13/02/2019 05:16:07 AM 548 Views
I'll have to take your word for it... - 11/02/2019 07:14:15 PM 548 Views
Fair enough. - 11/02/2019 08:22:13 PM 549 Views
*nods* - 11/02/2019 10:16:12 PM 551 Views
Is it really wasteful? I think that is just your moral intuition. - 12/02/2019 12:55:21 AM 501 Views
Have you ever worked with the US government? - 12/02/2019 05:30:44 PM 546 Views
I can't import the paperwork and accounting software without importing their values? - 12/02/2019 06:08:07 PM 516 Views
As someone who writes technical documents and consults with software.... - 12/02/2019 09:30:33 PM 522 Views
Too many cooks, thus we must remain with the Status Quo? *NM* - 12/02/2019 10:06:32 PM 276 Views
On US government inefficiency... - 13/02/2019 12:45:39 AM 535 Views
I agree with you. - 13/02/2019 06:42:21 PM 497 Views
How is it ridiculous? - 12/02/2019 12:45:40 AM 536 Views

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