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They're not contradictory - just a bit more subtle than having two binary options. Legolas Send a noteboard - 14/06/2018 11:01:39 PM

Yes, diplomacy is good, and it's not that Trump should never ever have agreed to meet Kim. Just not that early, not in that way, and not with these apparent delusions about how easily it can all be worked out. Among other reasons, because once Trump wakes up to the reality of how complex it all is and sees that his new buddy Kim really isn't going to give him anything important unless he gets major American concessions in return, I wouldn't be surprised if he goes right back to the 'fire and fury' stuff.


View original postThen suddenly the situation got to the point that China leant on North Korea (and directly or indirectly I think Trump contributed to this, either by 'skilled negotiation' with China, or happily not backing down with North Korea enough to make China want to intervene) we have the idea of negotiations, and even before the event happened, the media was attacking Trump for even meeting Kim, for apparently 'legitimising' him (a recognised head of state), that diplomacy won't work as hasn't before.

Diplomacy is done primarily by, you know, diplomats. Presidents get to swoop in and sign the deal in the end - but after a lot of preparatory work. Like the kind of preparatory work and long negotiations that went into preparing the consensus text of the G7 summit, before Trump decided to tear into that.

Now, of course, some preparatory work behind the scenes certainly did happen, and Pompeo went to North Korea - but when you look at the actual agreed text of the summit, you can't help but think that if this was all NK was going to commit to at this stage, then it was really too early to bring in the president, particularly in such a high-profile, one-on-one setting.

Before the meeting, the US was insisting on complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization - so full access at all times to all nuclear facilities, that kind of thing, like in the Iran deal. In the text of the summit, sure, North Korea does 'commit to working towards the complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula' - but, as the text itself mentions, NK had already promised the same thing in its joint statement with South Korea at the end of April, in more detail. So the Singapore summit text doesn't have any progress on that point, nothing at all about the verifiable and irreversible aspects, nothing about control mechanisms or access for inspectors - and when reporters push Pompeo on that, he gets huffy about it and calls that question 'insulting and ridiculous and frankly ludicrous'. And says that he's very confident that Kim understands that there will be verification.

Well, you know, I and the world media weren't there... Trump and Pompeo were, and they may even be right in saying that Kim genuinely seemed inclined to accept more than the text states. But even if so, it's still a long way from 'he seemed to be okay with it' to actually seeing it happen. The negotiators of the Iran deal could tell them a thing or two about that.


View original postRegarding a 'one-sided' negotiation, where North Korea has apparently got a lot of what it wanted, albeit insubstantial items, if it is keeping the diplomacy open, surely it is a good thing? The media's narrative suggests that if didn't go down that road, and just did what everyone else had tried before, it wouldn't have worked anyway, so what would have been the point? Do you think Trump could have actually forced a concession this early in the game, or that if he hadn't given anything away, it wouldn't have gone down the exact same road as before?

I'm not sure he could have forced a concession this early in the game, no - but I am pretty sure he should've left the negotiation up to lower-level people with the occasional visit from Pompeo until he did get such a concession (with South Korea conducting its own negotiations at the same time in parallel). This summit and its timing seem to have been based on Trump's domestic political concerns, not on any sound negotiating strategy in the best interests of the United States.
View original postI don't like Trump, and think a lot of his decisions / actions (e.g. around G7) are idiotic, in this case, it feels to me that he is looking at this stage to have more success than his predecessors, and I feel more optimistic than ever before that we might actually have a peaceful outcome.

It's possible. There is certainly a significant new factor other than Trump, which is the new South Korean president and his far more conciliatory approach to North Korea. I'm not sure yet if that makes the NK situation easier necessarily, but it makes it different anyway.
View original postHowever, it feels that the media doesn't care about this, and like Random Thoughts says, doesn't matter what tack Trump had taken here, I think he would have been criticised. If he hadn't done what he did, and just did the same as everyone else, I'm sure they would have criticised him for doing so.

I think part of the problem is looking at it as 'the media'. It is indeed a pretty safe bet that just about anything Trump does will be criticised by someone in 'the media'. But the media isn't monolithic, and at least the quality papers do have standards that keep them to some sort of editorial line and some level of consistency in what they approve of and what not. As do liberal columnists or op-ed writers. I don't believe most of them reflexively oppose whatever Trump does as you suggest, each time flip-flopping at the same time as Trump except in the opposite direction. Though no doubt it is true that you hear them the loudest when Trump is doing things they oppose, and the praise when he does stuff they agree with will be a lot more muted.
ABC on Pompeo's interview
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I don't agree... - 14/06/2018 09:37:23 PM 474 Views
I agree with this. - 14/06/2018 10:08:27 PM 509 Views
They're not contradictory - just a bit more subtle than having two binary options. - 14/06/2018 11:01:39 PM 609 Views
Well - 15/06/2018 12:03:41 AM 492 Views
Here you are being too optimistic. Sadly for the US and the world. - 15/06/2018 05:55:14 PM 482 Views
I'm *kinda* with you? - 20/06/2018 04:20:46 PM 500 Views
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Sure it does. - 22/06/2018 10:02:39 PM 498 Views
It's a start, albeit a very weak start. - 15/06/2018 05:49:27 PM 468 Views
Wouldn't that be ironic? - 15/06/2018 06:03:37 PM 504 Views
Nothing here *NM* - 15/06/2018 09:10:51 PM 303 Views

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