Scientology is a blunt instrument of a religion, and not a very effective one at that. It lacks much of what cults need to become religions. It does not have a coherent creed, it does not have compelling symbols, it does not have stories that people can relate to when in need of strength, hope or perseverance. In short, it doesn't speak to people.

You can characterize Christianity as a "Jewish zombie" religion, but as a student of art you can't deny the power contained in the image of Christ on the cross. Suffering for the sake of others, creating victory from death, and the countless parables (like the Good Samaritan) are all psychological and spiritual dynamite.

Likewise, Judaism is all about the covenant between a God and His people that tied ethnicity and national self-identity so closely to a particular spot of land that two thousand years later, the followers of the religion returned to, and stubbornly remain on, that particular piece of land despite wars, international condemnation and terrorist attacks.

How many people do you think would die for Scientology? How many people do you think can even EXPLAIN Scientology to others without being laughed at? What compelling stories of Scientology can people rely on for strength in their time of need? What stories do Scientologists even tell (I understand the whole Xenu thing is a big secret that members can't find out about until they get high up enough to be embarrassed if they broke the story to others)?

If Scientology had piggy-backed on an established religion (like Jehovah's Witnesses or Mormons) or come up with its own myth (again, like the Mormons) then it might survive as a religion. However, I think the closer analogy to Scientology is any one of the many failed cults that have come and gone and died. Theosophy went nowhere. Crowley's Ordo Templi Orientis has gone nowhere. Heaven's Gate, the People's Temple and the Branch Davidians went out in more spectacular ways, but there are dozens of other weird groups that don't survive. There is substantial doubt that the Moonies will survive as a distinct branch of Christianity after Rev. Moon dies. And where are the Rajneeshis today?