I almost feel like I'm coming down with something, but I'm not sure. - Edit 3
Before modification by Nate at 28/10/2009 03:55:01 AM
It's interesting though because I live in a university town, where a highly contagious flu is bound to spread like wildfire. Currently the uni clinic has stopped doing lab tests on every person with the symptoms, so numbers are hard to come by, but a month ago the official number was 500. Now I've heard from an unofficial source (spouse of medical person) that we've had 7,000-8,000 cases. That's insane! The campus is big, but still, it's roughly 1 in 6.
Some of the medical people here have told me that 7 in 10 people (at least in my province) are expected to get it. Don't know if that's realistic or reliable though.
At this point I have to question how much sense it makes to keep quarantining people - surely virtually everyone has been exposed at this point? If medically informed people can elucidate this, I'm really curious.
Since the mortality rate is about 0.5% (I think, and the following holds true even if that number is lower), the more people passing it around, the more people might die of it. Plus, the more people out walking around spreading the virus, the higher the chance someone in a high risk group (ie. pregnant women) will get infected. Each individual person staying home might not make much of a difference. But in the global game of statistics, it all adds up to lives saved.
EDIT - I just read 0.4% mortality rate somewhere else. In other words, 4 in every 1000, on average. Some other sources say that it may only be 0.1%, 1 in every 1000, which is comparable to the seasonal flu.
However, if half the world's population (for example) contracts H1N1, then a 0.1% mortality rate would result in 35 million deaths, mostly in China and India. So, y'know ... here's hoping that's wrong. We'll have to wait and see. Since this is the first time the virus is really spreading into the full global population, any stats like that are suspect at this point. And I don't know if that takes into account the fact that a large number of people over the age of 52, who were exposed to the 1957 pandemic, seem to have more immunity to H1N1 than everyone else.
EDIT 2 - Another scientific source claims that the mortality rates quoted so far could be exaggerated due to how H1N1 has been reported up to date, and suggests 0.007 to 0.045% mortality rates. The upper end of that would see, at half the world being exposed, 1.5 million deaths (and 250,000 deaths at the lowest mortality rate). Which might be more in line with what we've seen so far, but as I said before, it's all conjecture until the winter hits and puts the damn thing to bed.
Also, what about walking my pup? Is that okay as long as I don't talk to people?
As long as you aren't coughing on people. And wear gloves in case you have to touch door handles or any high-hand-traffic area like that.
In any case, it seems our worst fears have been pretty unfounded, because even with those high numbers, no one has died here. (yay!) I think the biggest effect will be an astronomical cost to the university, which is honestly doing its damnedest to avoid catastrophe. I went to the special flu clinic today, and though I had to wait a really long time (two hours), the doctor was super nice, and they gave me free Sudafed, cough syrup, an anti-nausea prescription med, and an inhaler. Sometimes it's great to be a student.
No way I could have afforded all that on my own.
No way I could have afforded all that on my own.I think the global death toll is around 5000, 6000 right now? Something like that. That seems like a lot, but annually, between 250,000 and 500,000 people across the world die of the regular flu. So it's certainly not the end of the world just yet.
Okay, more organized survey-like bit:
1. Have you had swine flu? What was it like for you? (Symptoms, duration.)
Today I've felt weird. Tired and the hint of a sore throat and achey eyes. I don't know if I'm about to come down with something or not. I've let my boss know that it's a possibility, and will see how I'm doing in the morning. Perhaps I should be staying home just in case even if my symptoms are only mild? But that puts a lot of extra work on other people at my work, and I don't want to do that to them if I don't have to ...
2. Do you know anyone who has?
You!
3. Is your local community being affected? What measures are they taking now?
We've had a few cases here. Not much going on for measures, except that there's an H1N1 vaccine clinic on Thursday. There have been a few deaths from it in neighbouring communities, four or five of them.
4. Have you ever been quarantined for any reason? What was it? How did you amuse yourself in the meantime?
Never have, no. Well, I guess I was quarantined from other kids when I had chicken pox. But I gave it to my brother and my cousin at the same time, so we all hung out together and played video games.
5. Are you nervous about swine flu, or do you still think it's been overblown?
It's definitely been overblown. More people will probably catch it than catch the normal flu. The final death toll can't be known right now, but aside from staying home when you have it, people should probably just live their lives and not panic. Wash your hands, try not to touch your face, that sort of thing. For most people it'll just be a normal flu, if they even catch it. That doesn't mean it's not serious; it is. But it's not the end of the world and it doesn't do any good to panic over it.