Falling in and out of Communion with various Anglican Churches isn't entirely new, although the Realignment does pose some very new problems. Still, it's the hyperconservative Anglicans who really are least likely to join the Catholic Church. You're close about Anglican identity, but I think a better statement is "Most of what it emans to be Anglican is to see yourself as Not Catholic."

I still think schism is relatively unlikely. Impaired communion for the foreseeable future, though, I think is nearly certain.