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I don't think so either, but I've seen surprisingly few polls on that so not quite sure. Legolas Send a noteboard - 26/04/2017 11:22:03 PM

View original postThe Republicans are in a strong enough position that they'll probably control parliament. However, unless Macron moves to rein in the situation with immigration then 5 years from now a desperate country just may finally vote Le Pen into power.

Keep in mind parliamentary elections also have the two round system - and in past elections a lot depended on strategic decisions made by the parties to withdraw their candidates in their second round in favour of someone else (generally that means against the FN), or not.

Still, it would be extraordinary (and not in a good way) for a 'party' like En Marche (note the initials) to take anything like a majority of seats with its hurriedly gathered batch of neophyte candidates.

And it could really take an amazingly long time before we get to the point where she'd win more than 50 percent, honestly. The FN has gained a lot of support already, but in terms of realizing its voter potential it's getting close to its ceiling. I think it's more likely that the next president would be a LR one but with some obvious FN inspiration - Sarkozy seemed poised to play that role and might've successfully done it, if not for his sky-high negative rates.

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So it will be Macron vs Le Pen after all - 23/04/2017 09:42:37 PM 1018 Views
Is this April 2002 or April 2017 - 23/04/2017 11:56:40 PM 662 Views
Yeah, not really that similar. - 24/04/2017 07:08:52 AM 664 Views
Le Pen vs. the Lightweight - 24/04/2017 03:29:21 AM 687 Views
Macron will win. - 24/04/2017 03:17:32 PM 661 Views
Yeah - win the presidential election, but the real question will be the parliamentary ones. - 24/04/2017 06:12:43 PM 662 Views
He won't win that, thank God. - 26/04/2017 08:57:20 AM 741 Views
I don't think so either, but I've seen surprisingly few polls on that so not quite sure. - 26/04/2017 11:22:03 PM 704 Views
France might make history, here - 24/04/2017 08:15:55 PM 654 Views
Argentina did this first in the 1970s - 24/04/2017 10:58:13 PM 692 Views
???? Of course - 24/04/2017 11:11:03 PM 602 Views
And Le Pen the day after pulls a publicity stunt *NM* - 24/04/2017 10:38:31 PM 399 Views
Eventually Le Pen will win. Or someone like her. - 24/04/2017 11:30:44 PM 611 Views
In the fullness of time we are all dead - 25/04/2017 01:22:54 AM 605 Views
I expect to the populist/anti-establishment trend to continue - 25/04/2017 09:24:38 PM 754 Views
It will. This is the shakey start. - 27/04/2017 09:31:57 AM 538 Views
Start? The start over here was back in 1991. - 27/04/2017 07:13:46 PM 702 Views
I know what you mean, and I am not up on all my modem history - 27/04/2017 08:30:11 PM 587 Views
2000, then. - 27/04/2017 09:04:39 PM 770 Views
I'm not gonna argue! - 27/04/2017 11:27:00 PM 843 Views
Re: So it will be Macron vs Le Pen after all - 27/04/2017 09:29:26 AM 578 Views
Yes. Rechecked them just now... - 27/04/2017 06:53:52 PM 754 Views
Good. - 27/04/2017 01:19:26 PM 648 Views

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