So after all the agonizing the past weeks and months - in Europe, anyway, though I dare say all the angst about Trump, right-wing populism and the 'alt right' must have gained more than usual attention in the US for European elections as well - the result in the first of these dreaded 2017 elections is pretty anticlimactic. Geert Wilders is now expected to have eighteen hapless lackeys joining him in parliament, moving from fifteen seats to nineteen - nice, until you realize he was over thirty in the polls a month or so ago. And that he'd need 76 for a majority. Not a good night for Bannon or Breitbart, I dare say, and a good sign for the much more consequential French election coming up in April.

On the other hand, it doesn't matter all that much whether Wilders has 19 seats or 30, and the VVD's (mainstream right-wing party) unexpectedly large lead is mostly due to the nasty spat with Turkey of the past week, in which both the Netherlands and Turkey had everything to gain from grandstanding towards each other, in which the VVD could reap the electoral benefit thanks to having the Prime Minister. If this incident has lost Wilders a few seats today but causes Erdogan to eke out a win in his referendum to (essentially) abolish Turkish democracy next month, that will be far too high a price to pay.

Dutch PM Rutte beats off far right but loses seats

Exit poll shows Geert Wilders’ anti-Islam party making some gains but tied for second after parliamentary election.

By CYNTHIA KROET 3/15/17, 9:07 PM CET Updated 3/15/17, 10:17 PM CET
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s center-right party came first in Wednesday’s parliamentary election, losing seats but beating off a challenge from far-right firebrand Geert Wilders, exit poll results showed.

Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) was projected to win 31 seats, 10 fewer than at the last election in 2012. Wilders’ anti-Islam Party for Freedom (PVV) was predicted to tie for second place with 19 seats, up four on last time, according to the Ipsos survey.

The Labor Party (PvdA), Rutte’s junior coalition partner, faced the biggest electoral loss in its history. It was forecast to win just nine seats — down from 38 last time. The Christian Democrats and the liberal D66 party both made gains to tie with Wilders’ party on 19 seats apiece. The Green Left party made dramatic progress, going from four seats to 16.

The vote was widely seen as the first major electoral test of right-wing populism since Britain’s Brexit referendum and U.S. President Donald Trump’s election victory last year. It is also the first major European election in a year that will also see voters in France choose a president and Germany elect a new parliament.

“All parties gained, except for us, but we are still happy,” Klaas Dijkhoff, a senior official in Rutte’s party and secretary of state for migration, told broadcaster NOS. “We had difficult years and we are very happy to remain the biggest party.”

Wilders tweeted: “We won seats! We’ve passed the first hurdle! Rutte is not rid of me yet!”

However, his gains fell far short of the progress he had hoped to make. Until recently, opinion polls had been predicting a close race between Wilders’ party and Rutte’s VVD for first place.

The result prompted sighs of relief from European governments. “Large majority of Dutch voters have rejected anti European populists. That’s good news,” the German Foreign Ministry declared on Twitter. “We need you for a strong #Europe!”

Rutte last week called upon voters to “stop the domino-effect” of populism. However, the prime minister also sounded some populist notes in his own campaign. In an advert published in Dutch newspapers, he said people should leave the Netherlands if they rejected the country’s values.

The final days of the Dutch campaign were dominated by a bitter dispute between Rutte’s government and Turkey, after Dutch authorities prevented Turkish ministers from holding rallies in support of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s planned constitutional changes.

Wednesday’s exit poll is based on a representative sample of more than 40 polling stations. Preliminary results are expected later on Wednesday evening, after municipalities have begun counting their votes.

Turnout was 82 percent, higher than the 74.6 percent at the last parliamentary election five years ago.