I know the popular opinion is he will say something really stupid and flame out but he has already insulted POWs and pissed off every Latino in the country and he keeps getting more popular.
I can't decide which will hurt the party more, him winning the nomination or him running as an independent. Either way the Dems win the election but I think him on the top of the ticket would be a huge drag on the other elections taking place. A negative coattail effect where republicans are so disgusted they don't bother to vote at all. With all the republicans up for reelection this cycle it could be a blood bath. If he just runs as an independent the party loses and election they were positioned to win but get to shed some of its more fringe elements and move back towards the center.
I have voted for every republican nominee since Reagan but I cannot and will not vote for Trump. To me the republican party has always been about fiscal responsibility and personal accountability. If it becomes the I blame China and Mexicans for all my problems party I don't think I could call myself a republican any longer.