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I don't support what masquerades as "democracy" in the Middle East. Tom Send a noteboard - 07/08/2014 04:54:39 PM

They're not ready for democracy. For democracy to work, and not simply slide into dictatorship of some sort (like it did even in Iran, which was more progressive in 1979 than anyone in the region is today), the economy needs to be fairly stable, there needs to be a sense of national unity and civil society and people need to understand how to properly redress wrongs (hint - through legal means, not by slaughtering the people who wronged you in a clan vendetta).

By this standard, only Lebanon in the region came close, and even that is now fraying at an alarming rate due to the Syria-Iraq multistate civil war. Egypt has no civil society and an economy in free fall. Iraq (or what is left of it) is riven by factional hatreds and even within the macrogroups like the Shi'ites there is clan allegiance before any sort of national allegiance (if the Kurds ever got a nation, though, I think they could make it work since their economy has been working, they have national unity and they have civic institutions).

The Gulf States are not even close by this standard. So yes, I oppose having elections in which radicals can hijack the state and impose worse dictatorships than the old-style ones that have crumbled elsewhere. I am glad they got rid of Morsi and I think it was a mistake for the US to criticize his removal.

Turkey, of course, is another animal altogether. It had a wonderfully secular state with national unity and civic institutions and a thriving economy, and although the generals every now and then ended governments that threatened the status quo by means of coups, it all worked. Erdogan, unfortunately, seems hell-bent on creating a crappy Arab-style dictatorship on the ruins of what Ataturk built, so while I would praise him if he were Sisi in Egypt (because the crappy Arab-style dictatorship we like is better than the abysmal Islamist dictatorship we don't like), in Turkey's case he is regressing the state from a viable democracy and turning it into something worse.

So aside from Turkey, where I support getting rid of Erdogan by means of a short military coup and a repositioning of the secularity of the state followed by democracy, I don't support democracy in the Middle East. Not now, at least. If Sisi can help Egypt follow the path of South Korea or Taiwan, I think he will be doing a great service to Egypt.

Political correctness is the pettiest form of casuistry.

ἡ δὲ κἀκ τριῶν τρυπημάτων ἐργαζομένη ἐνεκάλει τῇ φύσει, δυσφορουμένη, ὅτι δὴ μὴ καὶ τοὺς τιτθοὺς αὐτῇ εὐρύτερον ἢ νῦν εἰσι τρυπώη, ὅπως καὶ ἄλλην ἐνταῦθα μίξιν ἐπιτεχνᾶσθαι δυνατὴ εἴη. – Procopius

Ummaka qinnassa nīk!

*MySmiley*
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