On the other hand, there's no real reason to believe it will happen in the next couple of hundred years or so, is there?
Not really, no. The article reads like a bit of a tease (but then, Daily Mail
![](/site_media/images/smilies/wink.gif)
![](/site_media/images/smilies/rolleyes.gif)
Flip side, EXPANSION of the most massive stars sometimes expels enough matter to create "supernova impostors," exposed as such once enough dust clears to reveal the star still cooking away behind it. That may be the most practical early warning system, because supernova impostors sometimes precede the Real McCoy by VERY brief spans; in the case of SN 2006jc, by just two years. I have never heard of Betelgeuse doing anything that extreme, but about 150 years ago another imminent "hypernova" candidate did: Eta Carinæ.
Although about fifteen times farther away than Betelgeuse, Eta Carinæ (or its binary systems primary) is among the most massive stars we have found, leading one Berkely astronomer to predict its hypernova will be bright enough on Earth to read a book by at night. The Wikipedia folks claim it is no threat to anyone but astronauts, because its pole is not currently facing us. If it were, the gamma ray burst would instantly exterminate all life on the planet—from a distance of 8000 light years. A nice little reminder of just how precarious terrestrial life is.
Unfortunately for you (and, at present, me) Eta Carinæ is never visible beyond 30°N; even in TX, even at its zenith, it is near the horizon.
In general, it looks like our best chance of seeing a nice supernova coming is to keep track of impostors. Not only do they often portend actual supernovæ, they tend to occur in the most massive stars, whose radiation is so high gravity is only just barely holding them together already, so they tend to produce the brightest longest lasting super/hypernovæ. Then the question is just whether we are close enough to get a good view.
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
![](/site_media/images/smilies/cries.gif)
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.