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This is by far the most elaborate form of suicide ever proposed. Joel Send a noteboard - 10/08/2013 08:04:43 AM

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So a company in the Netherlands is apparently exploring the possibility of sending permanent settlers to Mars as early as 2022. Yeah, it could all be a pipe dream, but...

I hope its not. I hope there is something to this. And I want to apply.

I mean, how cool would it be... to be one of the first? To go, to risk everything in order to settle a new home?

I don't know why, but this has really, REALLY, caught my imagination. So, if it was legit, would you try? Could you leave everything Terra behind to forge a new life somewhere else? Would you risk your life in order to take your place in History?

I know its crazy, and I know that (depressingly) I am probably already too old, but... I want to. I mean I REALLY want to.

Is that totally nuts?


Yes, it is totally nuts. NO ONE on Earth has the means to establish a Martian settlement (or even launch a mission to found one) within the next decade. Certainly not an obscure Dutch startup still seeking investors to pay for its launch site and first rocket boosters. Refer to Sprites recent thread on the Biosphere project, where we revisited all its overly ambitious disasters. We could not even establish a self-contained and sustaining human environment ON EARTH without the residents having to sneak out after just a few months to avoid expiration by, well, expiration.

There are so many things wrong with this I do not even know where to begin, but the best place is probably the year and a half or so it will take to get there. The record for longest uninterrupted time in space is just under 438 days, months less than a Martian trip would take. I looked it up when I first heard about this lunacy, and found a statement by Valeri Polyakov (who set the record) that the experience "provided all the conditions necessary for murder." So instead of one psychologically screened professional soldier who said the experience was enough to make him homicidal, why not send a dozen or two civilians for a trip four months longer?

That is just how long it would take to GET there; afterward they would need to (very quickly) set up permanent habitation and all infrastructure to maintain it indefinitely. That assumes, of course, colonists arrived with everything needed for permanent settlement and got it all up and running before exhausting whatever oxygen and water they brought. The more they needed to bring to survive that period the more they would have to haul out of Earths gravity well, and the more unfeasible the whole prospect becomes. Sure, if they set up greenhouses plants could theoretically convert Martian CO2 into sufficient O2—eventually. Yet, as Isaac and I discussed elsewhere a while back, the Martian atmosphere is also pretty thin, so I would not expect much oxygen quickly even once greenhouses were built.

The clock would be ticking from the moment they touched down though, and the things they needed to do before running out of initial supplies would take weeks or months, not hours or days. The record for longest period on the lunar surface, by the way, is 74 hours, and only 22 of that involved Extra-Vehicular Activity: Work fast (but make NO big mistakes (and there is no such thing as a "small" mistake in this context. )) Even THEN they will not be back in a normal comfortable environment, just (hopefully) no longer dependent on a vast array of complex machinery to continue enjoying luxuries like breathing.

Even if they arrived AND got a habitat up and operational before consuming all air, water and food they brought, they STILL would not be out of the woods yet. In fact, on a planet never more than a few degrees above freezing even during equatorial summer, with an almost entirely CO2 atmosphere at negligible pressure, they would NEVER be out of the woods: They would be one malfunction or piece of stray debris from instant death for the rest of their lives (one way or the other.... ) If anything—ANYTHING—went wrong, at any point, rescue/resupply would take a year and a half. That is, if they spotted a problem while landing and radioed, "we need another x NOW!" the response would be "Roger that; ETA 16-18 months." Even that verbal exchange would take at least half a minute, at the speed of light in a vacuum.

Also bear in mind it took a Saturn V to put THIS on the Moon: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Lunar_Module

That was just 10 tons of metal occupying about 80 m³ of space so 2-3 people could spend a maximum of 3 days on the Moon. Obviously, sending 10 times as many people 100 times farther for an indefinite stay will take a BIT more equipment, and every last atom of it must be accelerated to roughly 35,000 mph just to escape this planet, let alone journey to its destination in anything like a timely fashion (and since the trip will be long and the crew will have no readily available sources of air, water and food until they can supply their own, time will be of the essence.) According to Wikipedia, rather than a 10 ton 80m³ lunar lander, Mars One means to send 3000 m² of cargo in solar panels alone (although the Wikipedia link to that statement on the Mars One site now returns a 404 error.) Now, if all the equipment were ferried up to the space station to be collected and transported from there (much as von Brauns first proposed manned Martian trip) that might be feasible (though still costly,) but it is hard to envision the countries who jointly own the space station participating in that.

All of that applies to any means of return also, and is not like we can just send another vessel to pick up colonists. Even if a colony succeeds it is unlikely any colonists could return to Earth in under a decade—if ever. Hug your parents, siblings and kids REALLY tight before you leave: You will probably never see any of them again even if you manage to avoid a slow miserable death millions of miles from home.

The US government (still the only people who have put a human being on another celestial body) cannot do this, is not even contemplating a Martian ORBIT until (according to Obama) 2030-something. China has discussed a possible manned mission between 2040 and 2060. Mars One says they will send a PERMANENT manned mission in 2023—once they have enough money to pay for it and volunteers off the street to crew it. I guess people caught on to the "Nigerian prince" scam. That is evidently Chinas conclusion: http://www.space.com/21270-private-mars-colony-scam-china.html

Frankly, I HOPE that is all this is; it would still be far more benign than the possibility they sincerely plan to send a bunch of idealistic but naïve people to almost certain, slow and agonizing deaths. Even by comparison to Jamestown, over half those people died, and their journey only took about three months without risk of hypoxia, explosive decompression or absolute zero. It really sounds less like Jamestown though than the colonial fraud Gregor MacGregor perpetrated by claiming to be "cacique of Poyais;" the difference there will be no British fleet on Mars to carry the few feverstruck survivors to a nearby ACTUAL colony.

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Compare these extreme accomplishments with what a Martian trip requires
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If you could, would you move permanently to Mars? - 24/04/2013 03:30:55 AM 1543 Views
You want to go where? *NM* - 24/04/2013 06:29:07 AM 451 Views
Have you read the 'Mars' trilogy by Kim Stanley Robinson? - 24/04/2013 06:37:26 AM 969 Views
Well, I'll look into it. - 24/04/2013 07:13:05 PM 865 Views
"Digital Descendants" - 25/04/2013 09:30:54 PM 881 Views
I think it's incredible that such a thing is even being attempted - 24/04/2013 08:13:16 AM 958 Views
I know. It really perplexes me that so many people are so down on it. - 24/04/2013 07:19:42 PM 905 Views
I am not gonna lie - 24/04/2013 08:24:57 AM 901 Views
No, and definitely not with this group - 24/04/2013 10:26:03 AM 972 Views
What's the problem, technically? - 24/04/2013 07:24:22 PM 879 Views
Basically? Mass and redundancy - 24/04/2013 10:40:30 PM 794 Views
The mass is what I wondered about. - 24/04/2013 11:03:36 PM 834 Views
Fuel costs are linear to mass, total costs are probably less - 25/04/2013 12:20:55 AM 787 Views
To put this in perspective, adding to Issac's points - 25/04/2013 01:50:38 AM 848 Views
That's not really a fair comparison. - 25/04/2013 08:18:35 PM 802 Views
Re: That's not really a fair comparison. - 26/04/2013 02:22:18 AM 762 Views
Re: That's not really a fair comparison. - 26/04/2013 08:58:45 PM 946 Views
I agree with your points, but you've still only listed financial (not technical) problems. - 25/04/2013 08:22:25 PM 816 Views
Finacial problems are technical problems - 25/04/2013 10:19:17 PM 812 Views
Maybe we just have different definitions. - 26/04/2013 09:25:33 PM 850 Views
Re: Maybe we just have different definitions. - 26/04/2013 10:54:11 PM 813 Views
So, suppose someone put you in charge. - 27/04/2013 02:14:44 AM 851 Views
Well that would be a bad idea, but... - 27/04/2013 03:29:47 PM 954 Views
Ask me when I am 60, I adored the Mar Trilogy though *NM* - 24/04/2013 12:54:58 PM 496 Views
It's all about prospects and hard work. - 24/04/2013 03:16:56 PM 953 Views
I wouldn't go like that. - 24/04/2013 05:15:09 PM 849 Views
No, but I wouldn't mind sending a few people there - 25/04/2013 01:52:56 AM 856 Views
Not with that. - 25/04/2013 07:32:40 PM 801 Views
Probably. - 26/04/2013 10:02:58 PM 747 Views
This is by far the most elaborate form of suicide ever proposed. - 10/08/2013 08:04:43 AM 1507 Views

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