Active Users:736 Time:23/12/2024 09:03:08 AM
That is the IDEAL, but NOT point: Sustainability needs no profit, yet profit ensures sustainability. Joel Send a noteboard - 11/03/2013 09:56:48 PM

View original postWe're getting pretty long here so let me touch on jsut one or two points
View original postI not only can but YOU DID: "Any given year in which the number of people 18-65 outnumber the number of people 65+ that SS doesn't bring in more than it shells out would represent an epic disaster of mismanagement."

Bad phrasing on my part, the intent of the comment is to say that if the number of people in the accumulation phase outnumber those in the distribution phase it is possible to have more in than out, obviously this isn't true if the distribution phase pays out more per average person per unit time then the accumulation phase takes in per average person per unit of time except to the degree supported by profit from savings/investment in excess of inflation. If we were talking about glass beads everyone put into the communal heap at a rate of one per day for X number of years and withdrew for Y number of years at the same rate the comment functions. More properly "Any system which maintains an equal or higher rate of accumulation than distribution which relies on perpetual growth is non-sustainable, and hardly requires applause when it achieves a surplus via a parallel to a Pyramid Scheme."


See, that is the problem: Ponzis CANNOT achieve ANY surplus, by definition, because contributors quickly equal beneficiaries. That is a practical impossibility for SS; the Census Bureaus 50 year projection is for US population to grow throughout, by >100 million between now and 1960. More importantly for this discussion, after 2035 Baby Bust replaces Baby Boom, and the rate of median age increase drops from ~0.12%/year to ~0.06%, while the growth in population >65 drops from ~1 million/year to ~0.5 million/year. In fact, in 2040 and 2045 the ratio of people 20-65:65+ actually INCREASES (Baby Bust.)

Speaking of ratios, current SS beneficiary:employed ratio is 2.73, not 2; do not let anyone tell you differently. http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/FACTS// http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Currently, ~19% of SS beneficiaries are <65 (which seems high, especially considering that is using Dec 2012 beneficiary numbers and 2015 population projections.) Assuming that held through 2060, at "full" employment (i.e. 5%) the ratio would (only just) hit 2% that year (1.99.) It would go UP in 2040 and 2045 (Baby Bust.)


View original postOr "A group that traditionally has been very worried about population growth seems bizarre to tie the sustainability of its entitlement system to said growth continuing forever and consistently."

On the contrary, it was almost inevitable. Any group preoccupied with steadily rising populations and resulting resource demands must sooner or later realize elderly populations depend on working populations ALWAYS several times larger. Fact is, it always HAS; the end of extended families just made it more obvious few elderly people can go it alone. Zero Population Growth did not produce social security insurance, and I doubt even most liberals support ZPG, but even if both were true social security insurance would just be making lemonade out of lemons. Steadily rising populations and their resource demands are a LOGISTIC, not LIBERAL, concern; saying conservatives/Republicans ignore them would be the best argument ever for not letting them NEAR a government. ;)
View original post
View original postBy that definition defaulting on most federal debt would be moral within 20 years. Even if that were moral it could never be tenable. YOU tell my mom it is "moral" to deny her SS benefits after she paid into the system her whole life. Do not kid yourself that argument will get easier to sell once most Boomers are gone and retiree numbers fall. We do not have that kind of time, but if we did the "Baby Bust" would reduce much of SSs funding problems. But you will NEVER convince most adults who lived through the past decade they are better off putting their retirement savings in the hands of Lehman Bros. or Ken Lay than the federal governments.

I didn't say I think we should default or that it would even be moral, but that is the reasoning used by many a bankrupt nation or even old family when justifying welching on debts and its hardly utterly absent of logic. Nations can avoid this problem entirely by simply not deficit spending without extreme need.

shrugs If it is an argument from expediency rather than morality, the Treasury securities the Fed, private citizens, commercial banks and mutual funds hold are worth more than the OTHER Treasuries SS has, more still if we include those held by private and public pension funds. If canceling the 20% of US Treasuries SS has is practical, canceling the 30% of Treasuries OTHER Americans have is HALF AGAIN as practical. If not, not. Roughly 67% of US federal debt is owed to Americans, and if the biggest chunk is SS, nearly HALF ALL US debt is owed to people who refuse to pay taxes yet demand the investment return taxes finance. If we are to talk of canceling Treasury securities for moral or practical reasons, let us start there. ;)

You may not want to talk about the moral dimension, but did raise it, and I fear we must. Because "starve the beast" was both fraudulent and immoral.

DECADES of demanding tax cut after tax cut to KNOWINGLY and INTENTIONALLY make historys richest nation its biggest debtor, just as an excuse to call SS and Medicares demise "unavoidable," was immoral. Lining a few already-bulging pockets with the pensions millions of hard working people scrimped each month of their whole career to save was fraudulent. In that sense, you are right SS was not conceived as, but transformed into, a Ponzi scheme—not by retirees expecting exactly the monthly payout SS promised them in regular letters, but by folks like Grover Norquist insisting their latest tax cut was insufficient, ever demanding another financed (well, PARTIALLY... ;)) by the enduring SS surplus.

From the start back in 1981, when the deficit was <$1 trillion, members of both parties incessantly warned SS would begin running deficits in 2010 and bring the feeding frenzy to a halt. Thirty years and $15 trillion dollars later we have proven those incompetent government bean counters 100% correct. Now the hard working people who financed that generation long smörgåsbord are discovering the same thing as everyone who invested retirement money with Ken Lay, Bernie Madoff, Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch and Lehman Bros: A few dishonest people who did not need their money took it anyway, and when asked where it went just shrug and say, "BANKRUPT! :)" on their way back to The Nineteenth Hole.

You are old enough and politically active enough not to need "starve the beasts" meaning or origin explained, why Cheney infamously declared as VP that "Reagan proved deficits don't matter." I just wish most of the US were equally well informed. This was no more an accident than the Lincoln assassination was a weapons malfunction. Social Security was fine until the Tax Cuts at Any Price crowd emptied a clip into its chest; now that the witnesses are gathering they have reloaded, put the gun to its head and tearfully announced, "it is beyond saving; decency permits no choice." To paraphrase Mae West, decency had nothing to do with it. :[

"Starve the beast" was an "inside job," "controlled demolition" on a scale to stun Truthers; anyone not following politics for each of the past thirty years would never know—so most do not. You and I do, and if Romney was right that the federal debt is our biggest national security threat, what does that make its creators...?

Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.

Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!

LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Note: 25% of US federal debt is too small for this list, but 60% of THAT is in the US, too.
Reply to message
Can You Name the Largest US Program to ANNUALLY Collect More Than It Spent for 75 Straight Years? - 28/02/2013 11:03:18 PM 1315 Views
It's the world's greatest Ponzi scheme, since the government forces us to give money to it. - 01/03/2013 01:05:05 PM 749 Views
Yes, "government forcing people to give money" defines a Ponzi; speeding tickets are Ponzis. - 01/03/2013 03:53:02 PM 876 Views
Good lord my friend..... - 02/03/2013 04:19:35 AM 788 Views
I will just link what Isaac said; maybe then you will pay attention to it. - 02/03/2013 04:56:34 AM 828 Views
I really think you terribly misread what I said *NM* - 02/03/2013 06:59:56 AM 433 Views
Yes he did. He has very poor reading comprehension skills. *NM* - 03/03/2013 01:07:59 AM 459 Views
I really do not think I did. - 04/03/2013 01:43:02 AM 866 Views
I'm pretty confident you have - 04/03/2013 11:49:19 AM 852 Views
We evidently disagree on what constitutes a Ponzi scheme. - 11/03/2013 09:56:27 PM 777 Views
No, I agree with a clear definiton, you seem not to want to absorb that - 11/03/2013 10:24:47 PM 924 Views
It is neither an investment nor fraudulent. - 12/03/2013 02:34:09 AM 991 Views
Okay, that's a really weird or naive standard to judge SS by - 01/03/2013 05:25:11 PM 799 Views
Great; will you put that on a postcard to Cannoli, A2K, Rick Perry and the rest of your party? - 01/03/2013 07:39:44 PM 822 Views
I don't think I'd be telling them anything they don't already know... I mostly agree with them - 02/03/2013 05:38:56 AM 935 Views
"Sustainable"=/="profitable;" bankruptcy was not always a given, as your fellows claim.. - 04/03/2013 01:35:04 AM 755 Views
Sustainable often means profitable, they are not universally synonmous but both at once is ideal - 04/03/2013 12:25:45 PM 753 Views
That is the IDEAL, but NOT point: Sustainability needs no profit, yet profit ensures sustainability. - 11/03/2013 09:56:48 PM 1211 Views
Your attacks on republican ideals would have more credit if you understood them - 02/03/2013 04:27:34 AM 808 Views
aH yes the great liberal investmetn/retirement plan that offers me a NEGATIGVE rate of return... - 02/03/2013 11:51:50 AM 723 Views
Do you sincerely believe people earning $14,560/year can afford investing 4% of it? - 04/03/2013 12:53:30 AM 883 Views
*sigh* - 04/03/2013 03:43:08 AM 716 Views
I tried it with compound interest; $44.80/month at 4% for 50 years still does not get to $1.25 mill. - 04/03/2013 04:24:51 AM 797 Views
Here are some clues. - 04/03/2013 04:37:39 AM 662 Views
It is math, not the Riddle of the Sphinx: EIther it adds up or does not. - 04/03/2013 05:02:39 AM 814 Views
Math is simple - Either you know how to calculate it or you don't - 04/03/2013 11:55:24 AM 896 Views
Indeed. - 11/03/2013 09:53:59 PM 798 Views
Re: Indeed. - 13/03/2013 05:00:10 PM 981 Views
SS is supposed to supplement a proper pension, not provide your sole income after retirement - 05/03/2013 03:53:03 AM 676 Views
Did you bother to actually read anything? - 05/03/2013 02:32:16 PM 747 Views
do *YOU* know what "living in poverty" means? - 05/03/2013 05:49:14 PM 810 Views
Re: do *YOU* know what "living in poverty" means? --- yeah, I've BEEN there. - 05/03/2013 08:01:33 PM 786 Views
how about respond to a post with logic and civility instead of being a troll for once? - 05/03/2013 11:03:00 PM 871 Views
All I have used is civility and logic, or least as much civility as was warrented. - 06/03/2013 04:28:04 AM 822 Views
yeah, it's my fault for stooping to your level.... - 08/03/2013 07:22:24 PM 860 Views
Re: yeah, it's my fault for stooping to your level.... - 10/03/2013 01:42:26 PM 733 Views
i'm not going to keep going in circles so i will finish with this.... - 11/03/2013 10:08:53 PM 1079 Views
No loss. - 13/03/2013 04:37:41 PM 673 Views
"Rah! Rah! Rah!" Can we please cut out all this blather and bile? - 05/03/2013 11:53:41 PM 751 Views
spoken like a true enemy of the state! - 06/03/2013 12:54:38 AM 718 Views
Re: spoken like a true enemy of the state! - 08/03/2013 03:04:37 PM 777 Views
I was not trolling, but clarifying. - 11/03/2013 09:53:48 PM 800 Views

Reply to Message