Before modification by Joel at 11/03/2013 09:55:31 PM
True, but if you have a 50 year investment that compounds interest weekly you should call the Fed; they need to have the Treasury print (a LOT) more money.
Again you are being illogical. You calculated the income and thus the amount set aside for investment using 4 weeks a month (that means 48 weekly periods 4 * 12 =4 8 ) instead of 52 weeks in the year, then dividing by 12 to achieve an average monthly. You lost 4 pay cycles by doing so which is what threw off your monthly savings amount.
7 * 40 * 52 = 14560
14560 / 12 = 1213.33
1213.33 * 0.04 = 48.53 <- I rounded down
--OR--
7 * 40 * 52 = 14560
14560 * 0.04 = 582.4
582.4 / 12 = 48.53
If you had bothered to actually read my original post, those calculation were self evident. Interest growth occurs in a completely different calculation so does not belong in this part of the discussion.
I dispute that they were self-evident; as you note, a month can be calculated multiple ways, and you did not specify which. It makes a big difference; hourly workers are usually paid fortnightly or weekly (on occasion daily,) while salaried workers (whom I realize we are not considering here) are usually paid monthly. However, virtually all workers pay bills monthly, and hourly workers only receive five weeks pay in the infrequent instances their payday happens to fall on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd of a month. In those cases 4% of their pay would be $56, in all others $44.80. I trust you agree compounding interest on that would not produce the same figure as compounding it on contributions of either $44.80 OR $48.53/month.
Again, I dispute that the particular calculations chosen were self-evident; there were multiple options until you specified one, so I was left to guess which you used.
Right, I had to guess the interest rate since you did (and still have) not state(d) it, so I used the same 4%. As good as any number if I must just pluck one from the air. Since you stated the return would be ~$1,253,000 though I assume you have at least a ballpark figure in mind, apparently somewhere between 11% and 12% annually. No, SS cannot beat that, but gambling anything that does will be there in 50 years is rolling some pretty big dice.
You never asked. Standard calculations utilize 8, 10, 12, or 15 percent. I think used about 11, which is very easily achieved over a 50 year period with decent investments, and it is anything but a gamble if you use half a brain.
I most certainly did ask, here:
http://www.readandfindout.com/community/messageboard/273467/
and here: http://www.readandfindout.com/community/messageboard/273481/
I asked for a very good reason, too: If someone asks, "what is x+5?" who is to blame that no one can give them the answer? Without knowing the interest rate or how the monthly contribution is figured calculating the final yield is impossible.
As to whether an 11% investment return is possible with negligible risk, I fear I must AGAIN ask you show your work (not your personal portfolio, understand, just an abstract but thorough description of how one gets there.) The highest interest I can find for CDs is ~1.8% over 5 years, and for Treasuries it is ~3% over 30. Both are a far cry from 11%, even after factoring in relatively low current interest rates, so please explain how one can do 4-6 times better with NO significant risk. Again, given the past decades... er, volatility coufraudgh on Wall Street and in commercial banks (to the negligible extent that distinction remains) many people would surely be fascinated.
I will make it simpler: Show me ONE real person who retired a millionaire earning $14,500 annually for 50 years (applying inflation where appropriate.) If it is so easy you must know of hundreds, if not thousands; I know of none. Intelligence really has nothing to do with it, unless you mean the intelligence not to make huge gambles with ones life savings just for the outside chance of spending the last decade or two in luxury.
My grandfather had the good fortune and diligence to hold a union job most of his life, where he worked his way up from hitchhiking to work because he could not afford a car to the day he had $10,000 to risk without fear, and had a broker invest it for him in the stock market. The broker took his $10,000, and that of many others, then skipped the country to spend HIS early retirement in the Bahamas. Later, my grandfather decided to try again, gave another broker $10,000 to invest, and the exact same thing happened. At that point he declared the only SOB who would ever again go to the Caribbean on his money was HIM.
I wish you better luck with your investments, though, once again, in the wake of Ken Lay, Worldcom, Lehman Bros. Bear Stearns, Citigroup etc. etc. I do not expect it. Consequently, I shall stick with SS, thanks much. 