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Time constraints Isaac Send a noteboard - 10/03/2013 04:37:51 AM

View original postHell, that by itself might scare the shit out of the North. A mandatory and orderly evacuation of Seoul, with a few aircraft carrier groups parked off the North Korean coast, would put them in a position of "shit or cut bait." I realize that it's almost impossible, but to treat it as a drill, get people to pack their belongings, and then suddenly have it not be a drill and implemented, would be a very strong message. Obviously, you can't do it for long (1-2 days MAXIMUM), so the North either takes the message or you then hit them, hard and with everything you have.

I don't know how trigger happy N. Korea is but you can't hide the evacuation of a major city and it would take hours at least, that's more than enough time for them to see it, order their forces to full alert, and demand you stop the 'provocative act' or be shelled. Once the guys are manning their guns the shells can arrive about a minute after the order is given. I don't know their default level of readiness but in theory a spy in Seoul could call them, then they could call the field commanders to ready up while they decide and issue the attack order mere minutes before the first volley landed. I really doubt they could do it under 10 minutes but delay beyond that would only come from decision making. I gather they have an extensive subway system and wouldn't be surprised if a lot or all buildings had basements with bunkers in mind and I could see getting most people down into those in the allowable time line but I can't see an evacuation of that scale going on fast enough for N. Korea to miss it and not have time to issue threats or attack.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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