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It is interesting how partisan faith in polls is directly proportional to their candidates numbers. Joel Send a noteboard - 17/10/2012 11:56:49 PM
A month ago polling was a filthly liberal media conspiracy to steal Romneys election; now that, for the first time all year, he leads by more than the margin of error in ONE poll, the election "is over." And, of course, Dem partisans who considered polling unassailable when Obama led object to this one; PoliticalWires blurb on it quoted a DailyKos blogger noting "Romney's entire advantage comes from a massive lead in the South. Now sure, some of that may be Florida, but the state-level polling certainly doesn't show that. So Romney is driving up big margins in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi and other such presidentially irrelevant states?"

We will see where we are in a weeks time, and where we finish. Gallups poll began at the peak of Romneys first debate surge, on the 10th; one other that began then shows O+3 and one that began the next day shows O+2. The latest three day poll from Rasmussen (which has become notorious for leaning more Republican than elections) shows R+1. What is noteworthy about Gallups poll is that it covered and entire week and its sample was more than twice as large as any other save Rasmussens (which also showed a Romney lead, although a single point is far less than the margin of error.)
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What say we do NOT cherry-pick polls we like?
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Is the election over? NEW GALLUP - ROMNEY +6% - 51% to 45% - - 17/10/2012 06:50:26 PM 543 Views
why do you hate america so much? *NM* - 17/10/2012 06:57:23 PM 177 Views
Funny, I have the same question for you. *NM* - 17/10/2012 06:59:11 PM 184 Views
I think that we can all agree on.... - 17/10/2012 07:16:01 PM 391 Views
Re: I think that we can all agree on.... - 17/10/2012 07:23:54 PM 359 Views
Yeah the elections over all right, a slam dunk to Obama, check with the bookies - 17/10/2012 07:35:14 PM 580 Views
You persist in this fiction - 17/10/2012 10:06:07 PM 353 Views
obama still has the easier path to victory - 17/10/2012 10:22:58 PM 330 Views
I wouldn't dispute that for an instant. - 17/10/2012 10:25:46 PM 369 Views
I think Silver's model tries to account for historical turnouts - 17/10/2012 10:32:24 PM 358 Views
I think that Virginia is still really a "red" state. - 17/10/2012 11:07:35 PM 350 Views
I think it's still in play - 18/10/2012 12:04:55 AM 335 Views
It ain't over till the fat lady sings, and all that. - 17/10/2012 10:07:11 PM 364 Views
Hawaii. - 17/10/2012 10:36:09 PM 497 Views
Yes, but they are also utterly predictable. - 17/10/2012 10:43:45 PM 360 Views
As evidenced recently by Germany - Sweden *NM* - 21/10/2012 05:17:38 PM 171 Views
It is interesting how partisan faith in polls is directly proportional to their candidates numbers. - 17/10/2012 11:56:49 PM 358 Views

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