It is interesting how partisan faith in polls is directly proportional to their candidates numbers.
Joel Send a noteboard - 17/10/2012 11:56:49 PM
A month ago polling was a filthly liberal media conspiracy to steal Romneys election; now that, for the first time all year, he leads by more than the margin of error in ONE poll, the election "is over." And, of course, Dem partisans who considered polling unassailable when Obama led object to this one; PoliticalWires blurb on it quoted a DailyKos blogger noting "Romney's entire advantage comes from a massive lead in the South. Now sure, some of that may be Florida, but the state-level polling certainly doesn't show that. So Romney is driving up big margins in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, Mississippi and other such presidentially irrelevant states?"
We will see where we are in a weeks time, and where we finish. Gallups poll began at the peak of Romneys first debate surge, on the 10th; one other that began then shows O+3 and one that began the next day shows O+2. The latest three day poll from Rasmussen (which has become notorious for leaning more Republican than elections) shows R+1. What is noteworthy about Gallups poll is that it covered and entire week and its sample was more than twice as large as any other save Rasmussens (which also showed a Romney lead, although a single point is far less than the margin of error.)
We will see where we are in a weeks time, and where we finish. Gallups poll began at the peak of Romneys first debate surge, on the 10th; one other that began then shows O+3 and one that began the next day shows O+2. The latest three day poll from Rasmussen (which has become notorious for leaning more Republican than elections) shows R+1. What is noteworthy about Gallups poll is that it covered and entire week and its sample was more than twice as large as any other save Rasmussens (which also showed a Romney lead, although a single point is far less than the margin of error.)
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Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Is the election over? NEW GALLUP - ROMNEY +6% - 51% to 45% -
17/10/2012 06:50:26 PM
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why do you hate america so much? *NM*
17/10/2012 06:57:23 PM
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That is an absurd statement no matter what your politics are.
17/10/2012 09:57:59 PM
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It was no less absurd all those years that the Conservatives asked that of Liberals
17/10/2012 11:17:45 PM
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I'm not Rush Limbaugh. I responded to moondog's specific statement. *NM*
17/10/2012 11:27:26 PM
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I think that we can all agree on....
17/10/2012 07:16:01 PM
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Agreed - even for someone that enjoys politics, it gets old after a while. *NM*
17/10/2012 09:39:33 PM
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Yeah the elections over all right, a slam dunk to Obama, check with the bookies
17/10/2012 07:35:14 PM
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You persist in this fiction
17/10/2012 10:06:07 PM
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obama still has the easier path to victory
17/10/2012 10:22:58 PM
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I wouldn't dispute that for an instant.
17/10/2012 10:25:46 PM
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I think Silver's model tries to account for historical turnouts
17/10/2012 10:32:24 PM
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Debate results won't be clear for a few days, and the average of polls is still a statistical tie.
17/10/2012 07:43:57 PM
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It ain't over till the fat lady sings, and all that.
17/10/2012 10:07:11 PM
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It is interesting how partisan faith in polls is directly proportional to their candidates numbers.
17/10/2012 11:56:49 PM
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