Re: Yeah, I just meant perception - Edit 1
Before modification by Isaac at 16/03/2012 03:33:56 AM
Yes, I do actually know several friends or acquaintances off the top of my head who pulled the proverbial lever for him in '08 and are now solidly opposed. The #1 cited reason has typically been "I can't believe I voted for that guy".
Do they have a specific issue, though? Like, maybe they voted for Obama in 2008 because they were super-pissed that we had invaded Iraq for what turned out to be no reason? But now other issues are piling up to counterbalance that?
I really couldn't say, in terms of anecdotal experience, I'd really doubt most people share their opinions on Iraq with me quite as frankly as they would most people, also I generally tune out such conversations or change the subject. It wouldn't surprise me though. People are often single issue in terms of what got them passionate about politics, and just kinda pick up the other party views on an issue, if that snaps they often snap with it, and leave. Others just get ground down in some fashion, it's very individualized.
Basically, I'm trying to think of reasons that would cause an independent or moderate to vote Democrat that have changed in the last 4 years to make them vote Republican.
You're over thinking this, most people who voted for Obama aren't hard blue, especially in the swing states which is pretty much all that matters. Many effectively were voting against Bush, not for Obama or even necessarily against conservatism. If Romney wins, a lot of people who voted for him will have done it to vote against Obama, not out of a deep respect for Romney or a devotion to the GOP platform. There are true blue defectors, and will be this time, but but if Obama loses it will be because hemorrhaged mods and indies, and for a lot of them they vote either off of 1) General pos/neg feeling toward a given candidate, 2) general peer-pressure effect, 3) they are mod but have one or two issues they very aren't mod about, and candidate X was on the right/wrong side. In terms of non-mods who flip sides, it's really all about the individual .