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Yes and no Isaac Send a noteboard - 14/03/2012 06:23:47 PM
That is, Obama's camp doesn't have to worry about their former supporters going over to Romney, they have to worry about their former supporters voting at all.

That's... weird. And kind of depressing. Thanks for the feedback.


You've got to keep in mind that in any given POTUS election there are a lot new people who never voted before and just got into politics, many will never vote gain or not for years, and many will have major changes in ideology over 4 years. If you've voted R or D for 20 years you might still flip, but that's mostly D-->R in recent years, my party gets a lot of ex-liberals, and it's still nowhere near as common as flips when 18-30-somethings who voted once so far. We will get a lot of ex-Obama voters, Obama will get a fraction of that in Ex-McCain voters, and a lot of first time Obama voters will not return this time. Both he and Romney will get some brand new voters, Obama more then Romney probably, but of the sort who were new in '08 or who think 'off year election' refers to midterms, many of those who went for him in '08 as newbs will break GOP. I don't have a firm figure but I'd guess the GOP doesn't get 3-4% more defectors than the Dems but 3-4x as many... the Dark Side is seductive |r ... and we have cookies.

Normally the Dems carry about 1-6% more of the <30 vote then they carry of the country, see this chart, in '08 they carried a abnormally high 13% more, and 3 or 4% more of the vote then normal... that won't hold this time, they get jaded easily.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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can *any* republican pose a challenge to obama in november? - 14/03/2012 04:06:59 AM 1191 Views
Yes, absolutely..... - 14/03/2012 04:12:30 AM 643 Views
"anybody but obama" is not a winning strategy - 14/03/2012 02:28:23 PM 619 Views
It can definitely work.....don't compare 2012 to 2004. - 14/03/2012 02:44:39 PM 490 Views
this is why it will be 2004 all over again if romney is nominated - 16/03/2012 02:22:26 PM 530 Views
It sure as Hell is, as long as the candidate is moderate - 14/03/2012 03:04:10 PM 735 Views
Did you vote for Obama in 2008? - 14/03/2012 03:47:55 PM 489 Views
Yes I did. If Romney is the candidate, I will vote Romney this year. *NM* - 14/03/2012 08:39:41 PM 335 Views
Second me on that. *NM* - 15/03/2012 09:25:39 PM 252 Views
Strongly qualifying your statement really weakens the "anyone". *NM* - 14/03/2012 10:14:45 PM 348 Views
The statement "anyone but Obama" can be a rallying cry, but only for the right candidates. - 16/03/2012 01:47:48 AM 644 Views
somehow i don't see romney having much credibility versus obama - 16/03/2012 02:16:32 PM 523 Views
Spoken like a true Obama partisan - 16/03/2012 04:18:21 PM 543 Views
It's actually not about credibility. - 16/03/2012 09:57:41 PM 598 Views
Re: It's actually not about credibility. - 17/03/2012 01:10:52 PM 915 Views
I love that "Gas Costs More!" is the current rallying cry. - 14/03/2012 10:13:04 PM 528 Views
Sure, if Israel hits Iran and Obama looks weak. - 14/03/2012 04:56:23 AM 649 Views
i think iran/israel is probably the biggest issue at the moment - 14/03/2012 02:25:29 PM 650 Views
I would put serious money on an Israeli attack before the election. - 14/03/2012 02:56:55 PM 643 Views
"if netanyahu is smart" is a hell of a qualifier - 16/03/2012 02:28:55 PM 579 Views
FL and/or OH and VA. - 14/03/2012 04:55:04 PM 732 Views
Yes, Romney. - 14/03/2012 10:59:26 AM 637 Views
I know that I would consider voting for Romney - 14/03/2012 01:05:47 PM 620 Views
If you will pardon an impertinent question: Why? - 14/03/2012 03:26:01 PM 595 Views
The answer to the question is yes. *NM* - 14/03/2012 02:24:51 PM 418 Views
I was thinking no, and here's my rationale: - 14/03/2012 03:41:21 PM 555 Views
Romney doesn't have to "steal" people away..... - 14/03/2012 03:48:00 PM 555 Views
Isn't that a pretty tenuous strategy? - 14/03/2012 04:49:42 PM 591 Views
Much as it pains me to agree with trzaska, he is absolutely right in this case. - 14/03/2012 04:21:43 PM 766 Views
- 14/03/2012 04:37:26 PM 457 Views
I need a shower.... - 14/03/2012 05:05:51 PM 688 Views
Interesting. So you guys are basically saying I'm right, but it might not matter - 14/03/2012 04:53:48 PM 625 Views
Yes and no - 14/03/2012 06:23:47 PM 753 Views
Conservative cookies nomz. But I think you missed my main point... - 14/03/2012 07:02:10 PM 601 Views
Conservative cookies nomz. But I think you missed my main point... - 14/03/2012 07:09:24 PM 518 Views
And the cookies are not a lie... at last night's meeting, we had Thin Mints - 15/03/2012 09:51:30 PM 633 Views
Yeah, I just meant perception - 16/03/2012 02:39:30 AM 626 Views
Re: Yeah, I just meant perception - 16/03/2012 03:32:07 AM 553 Views
Maybe I am - 16/03/2012 11:57:04 PM 577 Views
I'm not sure "hole" is really the word for it... - 15/03/2012 10:46:58 PM 527 Views
One day Republicans and internet trolls alike will learn not to say weird shit to people like me. - 15/03/2012 12:30:17 AM 705 Views
This is quite a good post and I can offer further evidence - 15/03/2012 12:37:13 AM 554 Views
I like this post. - 15/03/2012 08:40:07 PM 578 Views
I don't mean to disrespect your seal, but it looks more like a cat. *NM* - 15/03/2012 08:52:26 PM 221 Views
This made me laugh way more than it should have *NM* - 15/03/2012 09:07:08 PM 240 Views
me too *NM* - 15/03/2012 11:58:52 PM 225 Views
Couple notes - 15/03/2012 09:29:23 PM 506 Views
Yeah... - 15/03/2012 09:49:14 PM 540 Views
I like that logo better - 15/03/2012 09:57:39 PM 490 Views
Depends on the state of the economy - 15/03/2012 08:52:32 PM 539 Views

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