If he does not win the first (very likely) he almost has to win the other two. CA and NY are gimmes, Walker and Kasich all but handed him WI and MI, and PA has been increasingly blue in each election of the last 20 years (though Romney will probably be more competitive there than anyone since Bush 41.) However, that only gets Obama to 242, and after that possible wins become very scarce.

FL would win it outright, but since he won it by only 2% last time, that looks very dicey, especially if Rubio is on the ticket. If he is smart, he will go hard in OH (where Gov. Kasich has done damage similar to Walkers, but cannot be recalled) and VA, which, combined, would also be enough. The fortunes of Sherrod Brown and Tim Kaine may be inseparable from Obamas. Without FL or OH though, VA only gets him to 255, and he must hope for IA, NM and a miracle in either NV, CO or NH (if NV relectes him wads will never let me hear the end of it, but I worry not.)

Honestly, Obama should LIVE in OH, PA and VA for the next six months: Rent a bus and drive around in circles across the three of them until the election is finished.

This year is very much like an inversion of 2004; Romney is even a MA patrician who can finance his own primary fight. The problem is Republicans are less inclined to stay home if they dislike both candidates, and more inclined to be team players. When was the last time you heard a major GOP candidate voice serious concerns about low turnout, as Democrats do every time?

It is an axiom that low overall turnout is good for Republicans and bad for Democrats, because Republicans are a lot better about showing up to do their civic duty and vote for SOMEONE even if it is the least awful of many evils. Low enthusiasm among the general public (and Ken Blackwell) re-elected Bush in 2004, and may defeat Obama in 2012: If you want a parallel, THAT is the one to draw. Obama, as Dems in most elections, needs to be up by about 5% on election day to offset the fact more of his "supporters" will stay home, while only Republicans are enthusiastic.

Here is what I expect/hope for: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=hPH

Sad thing is, the below linked map would have been enough in 2008; now it is worth 7 less EVs.