Active Users:1102 Time:14/11/2024 10:57:22 PM
Pre-convention only the incumbents favorability ratings matter much Isaac Send a noteboard - 14/03/2012 01:19:04 PM
Media desperation for hot stories tends to overplay the alleged weirdness of this campaign, which is actually pretty par for course. This time 4 years ago Hillary and Obama were still locked up and McCain was just solidifying, and if you look back at '92 for instance about this time people were despairing of the nigh impossibility of Clinton beating Bush, back in '80 people were pissed at how non-conservative Reagan was and how he'd lose the base. If I had to guess, barring major changes, if Romney were picked right now and the election held in 6 or 7 weeks, I'd give Obama coin flip odds at best. It does not take long for people to rally and traditionally hotly contested primaries don't hurt much and often even help a little.

Obama is not a popular president and he's had very few guns turned on him thus far with most aimed in the traditional primary season circular firing squad. Romney is in a strong position to court the moderate and independent vote. But this stuff is never inevitable like everyone will say in mid-November, and an election can be flipped by it raining on the major city of a swing state on election day, or something as tiny as the guy running for senate or house in that area becoming unpopular and associated to ones of the candidates.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
Reply to message
can *any* republican pose a challenge to obama in november? - 14/03/2012 04:06:59 AM 1177 Views
Yes, absolutely..... - 14/03/2012 04:12:30 AM 630 Views
"anybody but obama" is not a winning strategy - 14/03/2012 02:28:23 PM 608 Views
It can definitely work.....don't compare 2012 to 2004. - 14/03/2012 02:44:39 PM 477 Views
this is why it will be 2004 all over again if romney is nominated - 16/03/2012 02:22:26 PM 514 Views
It sure as Hell is, as long as the candidate is moderate - 14/03/2012 03:04:10 PM 722 Views
Did you vote for Obama in 2008? - 14/03/2012 03:47:55 PM 478 Views
Yes I did. If Romney is the candidate, I will vote Romney this year. *NM* - 14/03/2012 08:39:41 PM 328 Views
Second me on that. *NM* - 15/03/2012 09:25:39 PM 247 Views
Strongly qualifying your statement really weakens the "anyone". *NM* - 14/03/2012 10:14:45 PM 344 Views
The statement "anyone but Obama" can be a rallying cry, but only for the right candidates. - 16/03/2012 01:47:48 AM 631 Views
somehow i don't see romney having much credibility versus obama - 16/03/2012 02:16:32 PM 515 Views
Spoken like a true Obama partisan - 16/03/2012 04:18:21 PM 528 Views
It's actually not about credibility. - 16/03/2012 09:57:41 PM 587 Views
Re: It's actually not about credibility. - 17/03/2012 01:10:52 PM 904 Views
I love that "Gas Costs More!" is the current rallying cry. - 14/03/2012 10:13:04 PM 510 Views
Sure, if Israel hits Iran and Obama looks weak. - 14/03/2012 04:56:23 AM 630 Views
i think iran/israel is probably the biggest issue at the moment - 14/03/2012 02:25:29 PM 635 Views
I would put serious money on an Israeli attack before the election. - 14/03/2012 02:56:55 PM 630 Views
"if netanyahu is smart" is a hell of a qualifier - 16/03/2012 02:28:55 PM 561 Views
FL and/or OH and VA. - 14/03/2012 04:55:04 PM 718 Views
Yes, Romney. - 14/03/2012 10:59:26 AM 624 Views
I know that I would consider voting for Romney - 14/03/2012 01:05:47 PM 605 Views
If you will pardon an impertinent question: Why? - 14/03/2012 03:26:01 PM 585 Views
Pre-convention only the incumbents favorability ratings matter much - 14/03/2012 01:19:04 PM 619 Views
The answer to the question is yes. *NM* - 14/03/2012 02:24:51 PM 411 Views
I was thinking no, and here's my rationale: - 14/03/2012 03:41:21 PM 545 Views
Romney doesn't have to "steal" people away..... - 14/03/2012 03:48:00 PM 545 Views
Isn't that a pretty tenuous strategy? - 14/03/2012 04:49:42 PM 578 Views
Much as it pains me to agree with trzaska, he is absolutely right in this case. - 14/03/2012 04:21:43 PM 755 Views
- 14/03/2012 04:37:26 PM 445 Views
I need a shower.... - 14/03/2012 05:05:51 PM 674 Views
Interesting. So you guys are basically saying I'm right, but it might not matter - 14/03/2012 04:53:48 PM 616 Views
Yes and no - 14/03/2012 06:23:47 PM 734 Views
Conservative cookies nomz. But I think you missed my main point... - 14/03/2012 07:02:10 PM 586 Views
Conservative cookies nomz. But I think you missed my main point... - 14/03/2012 07:09:24 PM 502 Views
And the cookies are not a lie... at last night's meeting, we had Thin Mints - 15/03/2012 09:51:30 PM 617 Views
Yeah, I just meant perception - 16/03/2012 02:39:30 AM 617 Views
Re: Yeah, I just meant perception - 16/03/2012 03:32:07 AM 536 Views
Maybe I am - 16/03/2012 11:57:04 PM 564 Views
I'm not sure "hole" is really the word for it... - 15/03/2012 10:46:58 PM 512 Views
One day Republicans and internet trolls alike will learn not to say weird shit to people like me. - 15/03/2012 12:30:17 AM 690 Views
This is quite a good post and I can offer further evidence - 15/03/2012 12:37:13 AM 544 Views
I like this post. - 15/03/2012 08:40:07 PM 563 Views
I don't mean to disrespect your seal, but it looks more like a cat. *NM* - 15/03/2012 08:52:26 PM 216 Views
This made me laugh way more than it should have *NM* - 15/03/2012 09:07:08 PM 236 Views
me too *NM* - 15/03/2012 11:58:52 PM 219 Views
Couple notes - 15/03/2012 09:29:23 PM 497 Views
Yeah... - 15/03/2012 09:49:14 PM 526 Views
I like that logo better - 15/03/2012 09:57:39 PM 477 Views
Depends on the state of the economy - 15/03/2012 08:52:32 PM 522 Views

Reply to Message