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Pre-convention only the incumbents favorability ratings matter much Isaac Send a noteboard - 14/03/2012 01:19:04 PM
Media desperation for hot stories tends to overplay the alleged weirdness of this campaign, which is actually pretty par for course. This time 4 years ago Hillary and Obama were still locked up and McCain was just solidifying, and if you look back at '92 for instance about this time people were despairing of the nigh impossibility of Clinton beating Bush, back in '80 people were pissed at how non-conservative Reagan was and how he'd lose the base. If I had to guess, barring major changes, if Romney were picked right now and the election held in 6 or 7 weeks, I'd give Obama coin flip odds at best. It does not take long for people to rally and traditionally hotly contested primaries don't hurt much and often even help a little.

Obama is not a popular president and he's had very few guns turned on him thus far with most aimed in the traditional primary season circular firing squad. Romney is in a strong position to court the moderate and independent vote. But this stuff is never inevitable like everyone will say in mid-November, and an election can be flipped by it raining on the major city of a swing state on election day, or something as tiny as the guy running for senate or house in that area becoming unpopular and associated to ones of the candidates.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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can *any* republican pose a challenge to obama in november? - 14/03/2012 04:06:59 AM 1191 Views
Yes, absolutely..... - 14/03/2012 04:12:30 AM 643 Views
"anybody but obama" is not a winning strategy - 14/03/2012 02:28:23 PM 619 Views
It can definitely work.....don't compare 2012 to 2004. - 14/03/2012 02:44:39 PM 490 Views
this is why it will be 2004 all over again if romney is nominated - 16/03/2012 02:22:26 PM 529 Views
It sure as Hell is, as long as the candidate is moderate - 14/03/2012 03:04:10 PM 735 Views
Did you vote for Obama in 2008? - 14/03/2012 03:47:55 PM 489 Views
Yes I did. If Romney is the candidate, I will vote Romney this year. *NM* - 14/03/2012 08:39:41 PM 334 Views
Second me on that. *NM* - 15/03/2012 09:25:39 PM 251 Views
Strongly qualifying your statement really weakens the "anyone". *NM* - 14/03/2012 10:14:45 PM 347 Views
The statement "anyone but Obama" can be a rallying cry, but only for the right candidates. - 16/03/2012 01:47:48 AM 644 Views
somehow i don't see romney having much credibility versus obama - 16/03/2012 02:16:32 PM 523 Views
Spoken like a true Obama partisan - 16/03/2012 04:18:21 PM 542 Views
It's actually not about credibility. - 16/03/2012 09:57:41 PM 598 Views
Re: It's actually not about credibility. - 17/03/2012 01:10:52 PM 914 Views
I love that "Gas Costs More!" is the current rallying cry. - 14/03/2012 10:13:04 PM 527 Views
Sure, if Israel hits Iran and Obama looks weak. - 14/03/2012 04:56:23 AM 649 Views
i think iran/israel is probably the biggest issue at the moment - 14/03/2012 02:25:29 PM 649 Views
I would put serious money on an Israeli attack before the election. - 14/03/2012 02:56:55 PM 642 Views
"if netanyahu is smart" is a hell of a qualifier - 16/03/2012 02:28:55 PM 578 Views
FL and/or OH and VA. - 14/03/2012 04:55:04 PM 732 Views
Yes, Romney. - 14/03/2012 10:59:26 AM 637 Views
I know that I would consider voting for Romney - 14/03/2012 01:05:47 PM 619 Views
If you will pardon an impertinent question: Why? - 14/03/2012 03:26:01 PM 595 Views
Pre-convention only the incumbents favorability ratings matter much - 14/03/2012 01:19:04 PM 629 Views
The answer to the question is yes. *NM* - 14/03/2012 02:24:51 PM 418 Views
I was thinking no, and here's my rationale: - 14/03/2012 03:41:21 PM 555 Views
Romney doesn't have to "steal" people away..... - 14/03/2012 03:48:00 PM 555 Views
Isn't that a pretty tenuous strategy? - 14/03/2012 04:49:42 PM 591 Views
Much as it pains me to agree with trzaska, he is absolutely right in this case. - 14/03/2012 04:21:43 PM 766 Views
- 14/03/2012 04:37:26 PM 457 Views
I need a shower.... - 14/03/2012 05:05:51 PM 687 Views
Interesting. So you guys are basically saying I'm right, but it might not matter - 14/03/2012 04:53:48 PM 624 Views
Yes and no - 14/03/2012 06:23:47 PM 752 Views
Conservative cookies nomz. But I think you missed my main point... - 14/03/2012 07:02:10 PM 600 Views
Conservative cookies nomz. But I think you missed my main point... - 14/03/2012 07:09:24 PM 517 Views
And the cookies are not a lie... at last night's meeting, we had Thin Mints - 15/03/2012 09:51:30 PM 632 Views
Yeah, I just meant perception - 16/03/2012 02:39:30 AM 626 Views
Re: Yeah, I just meant perception - 16/03/2012 03:32:07 AM 552 Views
Maybe I am - 16/03/2012 11:57:04 PM 576 Views
I'm not sure "hole" is really the word for it... - 15/03/2012 10:46:58 PM 527 Views
One day Republicans and internet trolls alike will learn not to say weird shit to people like me. - 15/03/2012 12:30:17 AM 704 Views
This is quite a good post and I can offer further evidence - 15/03/2012 12:37:13 AM 554 Views
I like this post. - 15/03/2012 08:40:07 PM 577 Views
I don't mean to disrespect your seal, but it looks more like a cat. *NM* - 15/03/2012 08:52:26 PM 220 Views
This made me laugh way more than it should have *NM* - 15/03/2012 09:07:08 PM 239 Views
me too *NM* - 15/03/2012 11:58:52 PM 225 Views
Couple notes - 15/03/2012 09:29:23 PM 506 Views
Yeah... - 15/03/2012 09:49:14 PM 540 Views
I like that logo better - 15/03/2012 09:57:39 PM 490 Views
Depends on the state of the economy - 15/03/2012 08:52:32 PM 539 Views

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