Pre-convention only the incumbents favorability ratings matter much
Isaac Send a noteboard - 14/03/2012 01:19:04 PM
Media desperation for hot stories tends to overplay the alleged weirdness of this campaign, which is actually pretty par for course. This time 4 years ago Hillary and Obama were still locked up and McCain was just solidifying, and if you look back at '92 for instance about this time people were despairing of the nigh impossibility of Clinton beating Bush, back in '80 people were pissed at how non-conservative Reagan was and how he'd lose the base. If I had to guess, barring major changes, if Romney were picked right now and the election held in 6 or 7 weeks, I'd give Obama coin flip odds at best. It does not take long for people to rally and traditionally hotly contested primaries don't hurt much and often even help a little.
Obama is not a popular president and he's had very few guns turned on him thus far with most aimed in the traditional primary season circular firing squad. Romney is in a strong position to court the moderate and independent vote. But this stuff is never inevitable like everyone will say in mid-November, and an election can be flipped by it raining on the major city of a swing state on election day, or something as tiny as the guy running for senate or house in that area becoming unpopular and associated to ones of the candidates.
Obama is not a popular president and he's had very few guns turned on him thus far with most aimed in the traditional primary season circular firing squad. Romney is in a strong position to court the moderate and independent vote. But this stuff is never inevitable like everyone will say in mid-November, and an election can be flipped by it raining on the major city of a swing state on election day, or something as tiny as the guy running for senate or house in that area becoming unpopular and associated to ones of the candidates.
The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
- Albert Einstein
King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
can *any* republican pose a challenge to obama in november?
14/03/2012 04:06:59 AM
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Yes, absolutely.....
14/03/2012 04:12:30 AM
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"anybody but obama" is not a winning strategy
14/03/2012 02:28:23 PM
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It can definitely work.....don't compare 2012 to 2004.
14/03/2012 02:44:39 PM
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this is why it will be 2004 all over again if romney is nominated
16/03/2012 02:22:26 PM
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It sure as Hell is, as long as the candidate is moderate
14/03/2012 03:04:10 PM
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Did you vote for Obama in 2008?
14/03/2012 03:47:55 PM
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Yes I did. If Romney is the candidate, I will vote Romney this year. *NM*
14/03/2012 08:39:41 PM
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Strongly qualifying your statement really weakens the "anyone". *NM*
14/03/2012 10:14:45 PM
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The statement "anyone but Obama" can be a rallying cry, but only for the right candidates.
16/03/2012 01:47:48 AM
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somehow i don't see romney having much credibility versus obama
16/03/2012 02:16:32 PM
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Spoken like a true Obama partisan
16/03/2012 04:18:21 PM
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actually, i did not vote for obama in 2008 and i won't this time either
17/03/2012 01:02:09 PM
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Sure, if Israel hits Iran and Obama looks weak.
14/03/2012 04:56:23 AM
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i think iran/israel is probably the biggest issue at the moment
14/03/2012 02:25:29 PM
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I would put serious money on an Israeli attack before the election.
14/03/2012 02:56:55 PM
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I know that I would consider voting for Romney
14/03/2012 01:05:47 PM
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If you will pardon an impertinent question: Why?
14/03/2012 03:26:01 PM
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Because Obama is a complete and utter failure.....
14/03/2012 03:44:14 PM
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Again, I get Republicans voting Anybody but Obama, but not how anyone can be comfortable w/ Romney.
14/03/2012 04:06:14 PM
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Pre-convention only the incumbents favorability ratings matter much
14/03/2012 01:19:04 PM
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obama is not popular, but at least he has the ability to organize a national campaign
14/03/2012 02:18:04 PM
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No, the democratic party does, so does the GOP
14/03/2012 03:16:31 PM
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That's true- despite how divisive the primaries seem, the GOP will unite behind the winner
14/03/2012 03:44:16 PM
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Re: That's true- despite how divisive the primaries seem, the GOP will unite behind the winner
14/03/2012 03:59:25 PM
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Actually, my experience has been a lot of libs mean it when they say they will not for anyone.
14/03/2012 04:19:46 PM
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I don't want to grossly over-generalize but there are distinct trends to party demographics
14/03/2012 06:04:09 PM
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I was thinking no, and here's my rationale:
14/03/2012 03:41:21 PM
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Much as it pains me to agree with trzaska, he is absolutely right in this case.
14/03/2012 04:21:43 PM
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Interesting. So you guys are basically saying I'm right, but it might not matter
14/03/2012 04:53:48 PM
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Yeah, pretty much, and I would even say that is the trend in all Dem vs. Rep elections.
14/03/2012 04:59:30 PM
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Yes and no
14/03/2012 06:23:47 PM
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Conservative cookies nomz. But I think you missed my main point...
14/03/2012 07:02:10 PM
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Conservative cookies nomz. But I think you missed my main point...
14/03/2012 07:09:24 PM
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And the cookies are not a lie... at last night's meeting, we had Thin Mints
15/03/2012 09:51:30 PM
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Yeah, I just meant perception
16/03/2012 02:39:30 AM
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One day Republicans and internet trolls alike will learn not to say weird shit to people like me.
15/03/2012 12:30:17 AM
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I like this post.
15/03/2012 08:40:07 PM
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I don't mean to disrespect your seal, but it looks more like a cat. *NM*
15/03/2012 08:52:26 PM
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You've obviously never heard of a kitten seal, Mr. I-Write-An-Animal-Blog. *NM*
15/03/2012 09:38:47 PM
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Maybe it's a leopard seal. That someone put a cat-ear band on. *NM*
15/03/2012 10:07:46 PM
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Does it matter if they do? At this point, does it matter who is president? Probably not.
16/03/2012 02:11:45 AM
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