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Some, though it is far from exhaustive. Joel Send a noteboard - 08/03/2012 02:29:06 PM
It is not THAT bad, for a single state, in a survey aimed at the whole country. A Pew poll with a 7% margin of error is surely more objective than the Mormons self reported number from 6 years ago, which is where I found the number nearly identical to that you cited. I would certainly be happy to have a look at your source for that figure, but since you did not state it I can only guess what it was.

http://www.ldschurchnews.com/articles/58714/United-States-information-Nevada.html

you can look at their church records you can do a search of other sources as well. Do you have any idea what a 7% margin of error actually means? And you think that's more objective?!

Quite honestly you must be yanking my chain.

Yes, I have a good idea of what 7% margin of error means; it means the sample size permits confidence of accuracy to no less than 7%. The LDS cited 6.5% total is well within that range.

However, the Pew figure is unquestionably more OBJECTIVE than the Mormons self-reported numbers, whether or not it is more accurate.

One obvious possible explanation of why their figure is lower is that they probably only counted enrolled membership, perhaps only that regularly attending services, while the Pew survey counts everyone who self-identifies as Mormon irrespective of their official membership or activity.

Say we use that figure though. There are about 2.7 million Nevadans, so 6.5% of them would be about 175,000. According to Huff Post, final numbers were around 32,500 total caucus voters (so turnout was, in fact, way down from '08.) We further know, based on how Mormons and non-Mormons split, that 30% of those, or just under 10,000, were Mormons, and the other 22,500 were not. Call it 23,000, since I rounded the Mormons up, too.

The means 6% of Nevadas Mormons voted in the GOP caucus, compared to <1% of the rest of the state.

Obama better HOPE general election turnout is nothing like that in the Southwest, let alone nationally, or he has no chance.

and why would it be? Extrapolating from a low turnout caucus to a presidential race. Hmmm.

Extrapolating from a low turnout caucus to a low turnout presidential race. Neither party is enthusiastic about its candidate, though IMHO Republicans are more enthusiastic about defeating Obama than Democrats are about defeating Romney. Most Democrats seem to feel Romney more embarrassing than threatening.

Small sampe>no sample. Give me some other 2012 NV election numbers and I will be happy to review them.

The problem is your reasoning is flawed. Sample vs no sample is a ridiculous thing to say when your technique is actually invalid.

Mind you rather than rehashing the same old ground I'm leaving this particular conversation. No matter what I say you wont see sense. No matter what any expert says, you wont see sense.

What "expert" would that be? The one who quoted 2008 caucus turnout as 2012 turnout? What "experts" claim the Mormon vote does not have a large impact on NV elections? Every knowledgeable source I have seen comment on that says just the opposite.

Unless other voters greatly outnumber Republicans (an odd contention when arguing NV is a swing state) the caucus effect will only diminish, not disappear, in the general election. It may only be about half what it was in the GOP-only caucus, but, based on the energetic 2008 caucus' 25% Mormon turnout, that would be about 12.5% (based on this years low turnout caucus it would be 15%.) If Obama had not won NV by such a big margin (12%) in 2008 this would not even be worth debating, but even so, 1) Obama was much more popular then and 2) the GOP nominee was not Mormon.

Unless you can cite an "expert" with evidence Democratic turnout will be as energetic as 2008 (or anything but lethargic) I will continue believing high Mormon enthusiasm for Romney will be an insurmountable problem for Obama in AZ, NV and probably even CO (though the biggest problem in the last is that no one outside metro Denver can stand Obama.) You may continue believing you know more about my countrys politics than I, but our respective records do not support that belief. A week ago I said Romney would come out of Super Tuesday with "close to 300 more delegates," which is about 68.5% of the total; the WSJ says he actually won 63% of delegates they project (51 are still unprojected, 19 in states Romney won, but most will eventually be his.) I stand, as always, on my record.
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