Pews polling shows the NV Mormon population at just over twice that, plus the combination of their strong preference for Romney and high turnout, makes NV almost impossible for Obama. The 7% of margin of error in that poll is significant, and LDS estimates of their numbers are close to those you cite (http://www.allaboutmormons.com/number_of_mormons.php) but 11% explains the NV GOP caucus results a lot better than 6.5% does.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/what-we-learned-from-nevada/

Romney won by 20% even though he only had an 8% lead among non-Mormons—because he won NINETY percent of Mormons, who were a big chunk of the total. Do the math; 0.38x+0.9y=0.5(x+y) so Mormons were 30% of the total, and breaking 90% for Romney gave him a majority in a four man race.

Colarado is not much better; the Mormon population may not be as high, but there is a very good reason I do not talk politics on the Denver Broncos forum I frequent.


Back in 2008 Obama got 53% of the national vote, but the next election is in 2012. Regardless, 3% of AMERICAS hispanic population is there illegally and thus not voting (despite GOP claims to the contrary.) LULAC says hispanic turnout in 2008 was half again that in 2004, but that 11 million was less than 10% of the 130 million people who voted and, once again, Obama was far more popular in 2004 than now.

http://lulac.org/news/pr/historic_turnout/

I would not assume the Mormon population has not grown relative to others; from its very origin, the Mormon church has actively promoted both proselytizing and reproduction to increase numbers, and thus influence. I am sure Obama remains far more popular than Romney with hispanic voters, but whether that makes a pivotal difference in the Southwest or nationally depends on how many there are, how many can vote for him and how many actually do. The second two are almost given for Romney with Mormons, whose numbers are large throughout the Southwest. I think Obama will hold NM, but that is about it.


I just cannot imagine Romney SO damaged Obama can improve on his 2004 performance anywhere, and polling supports that: NO state McCain won is rated a tossup, by anyone. That means every state Obama narrowly won will be a big challenge for him to win again (hence Cook rates IN Likely Rep. and NH Leans Rep.) It also means NC (which Obama won by 1%) is virtually hopeless. It is far more significant that NV, a state Obama won by 12% when running against neighboring Senator McCain in 2004, is now rated a toss up. Either large Mormon turnout is expected in NV, Obama is MUCH weaker now, or both, which makes the Southwest tough sledding for Obama.

The Cook ratings show 195 EVs as Lean Republican or better. There is no way a much weaker Obama holds a NC he won by a single point in '04, so we can add 15 more to get 210. The Mormon population that elected both Mormon NV Senators take its 6 EVs off the table, too, so that is 216. With 29 EVs in FL and 18 more in OH, that would be 263, meaning the only other Toss Up Obama could afford to lose is IA (6,) and none of the leaners will flip given the lack of enthusiasm for both nominees. Neither nominee can win without FL and/or OH, whatever happens in the popular vote.