Active Users:688 Time:23/12/2024 03:00:45 PM
That has not really changed. Joel Send a noteboard - 03/03/2012 03:30:34 AM
Beyond the usual reasons there are others. In a straight up/down voluntary voting system a politician has extra reason to invest 'get out the vote' efforts in places where they have maximum effect... cities and college campuses, liberal territory basically. You could do straight up/down in a mandatory system but then you're deliberately including votes by people who are too lazy to go through the minimal effort to vote and thus probably are too lazy to be informed on issues and aren't really ideal voters.

In the US, older people have more effective say as a group since many more of them vote, and we like that as older people generally are better informed, your average 55 year old knowing more then an 18 year old. In a mandatory voting system there will be more 18 year olds then 55 year olds voting, as population grows, and that's not really a bias one might consider ideal. Absent that, in a voluntary system, it is simply far easier to grab those who would be unlikely to vote and get them to vote in a city or near a college then in the country, so you'd be creating a doubly non-ideal shift to the vote.

Currently, say, if the Governor of New York created a tax break or cash reward on the spot for voting, and pulled off say 80-90% vote totals, while the end sum might be a decent amount different then prior breakdowns, it wouldn't infect the national vote, NY has NY's votes based on their population nothing more. A 40% turnout in Indiana and a 70% turnout in Arizona, both population 6.5 million, will get the same result, even though one had 2.6 and the other 4.6 million voters. So the current system eliminates the advantage to any heavily republican or democrat state... the sort who would have a one-party state gov't... from having any reason to get their hands into the pot, those states have no motive to tamper with the EV as it is already a foregone conclusion, and those states are also the ones that could most easily pull off some sort of legitimate or fraudulent mass vote effort.

The billion or two spent on POTUS races is less than a percent of a percent of the economy, but effects far more, and a populace state with a candidate up for POTUS could easily find some way, in a pop vote system, to seriously spike the odds, even if simply by that state voting more on account of that person coming from there, so we might end up never seeing a candidate who didn't come from the top 5 most populous states. This is not to say our current system is wonderfully fair, but devil you know, and I don't think most pop vote fans or fence sitters have ever considered much of what I listed there.

Not directly, at least; the first and third paragraphs are ultimately consequences a popular systems tendency to marginalize low population areas. A popular vote system would not only allow a candidate to focus his efforts on fifty or so of the largest cities, but force his opponents to do the same, since they could not afford to sacrifice time and money needed to contest the 20 million NYC voters if the only payoff were half a million MT voters. Yet another reason not to fix what is not broken, but I am still going to give Tim the standard response even though he has surely already heard it. :P

that this is what would happen in a swing state. Focus on the cities. When it is a swing country people would focus on their strong points. the parties already have an organisation in every state and they will be trying to get out the voters in every state. Granted a predominantly rural small state wont have much attention lavished on them but should they? Generally in a presidential contest they don't get the attention anyway.

It is far easier to address many groups of people in many locations in a swing state than in a swing country. That is why candidates would ignore two-thirds of states in a direct popular vote; it would not be worth traveling a thousand miles from a few major population centers to appeal to a couple percentiles of the whole. In a swing state it is foolish to focus solely on the handful of largest cities when it is easy to quickly reach dozens of others that collectively have as much or more influence. Not only that, but instead of flying over them at 500 mph on the way to a high value destination, candidates often travel only a few dozen miles by car or bus between such destinations within a state. When passing through small town anyway, they might as well pull over for periodic brief rallies as they go.

The thing is, we do not WANT presidents to focus on their strong points, because they are the only federal leaders who represent the whole nation rather than just part of it. That makes a national focus vital, because the president is the leader entrusted with the responsibility of cutting through the state and local issues preoccupying Congress and balancing those competing regional interests on behalf of the national interest. Rural voters do not get disproportionate attention now, but they do get some; with a direct popular vote they would get almost none, because the return would be so marginal.

Think of Wyoming. Sparsely populated with about half a million people and yet their voting power per head is higher than a New Yorkers? How's that fair?

Because their collective worth is also far higher than NYs. How many times has WY deciding an election? Once: 2000 (I would say FL and NH decided that election more than WY did, but in a sense they all did.) New York has been pivotal in countless presidential elections since 1890. That has about three times as many people per elector partially offsets the fact those people collectively decide nine times more electoral votes. The smaller the state, the easier it is to carry, but the less advantageous it is to do so.

Regardless, to the extent there is an inequity, it lies, not in the Electoral College, but in Congressional representation. When one asks why NY has three times as many people per elector as WY one might as well ask why it has three times as many people per seats in Congress, because it is the same question. The Constitution explicitly recognizes states rights alongside those of individuals, and reflects that in electors. We do not want urban populations distributed over a few thousand square miles to dictate to rural populations distributed over half a continent, or to put the latter at the significant disadavantage that would exist if each were expected to collectively organize on their own behalf.

Oh and there aren't 20 million voters in new york city.

No, the NYC Combined Statistical Area (which was the list I linked) has 22 million voters; I rounded down (the Metro SA has about 19 million, so close enough. ;)) A candidate speaking at Madison Square Garden reaches a local crowd far larger than just those within the city limits. In fact, they reach audiences throughout "the tri-state area" that includes NJ (14 EVs) and CT (7 EVs,) as well as much of PA (20 EVs) and MA (11 EVs.) A candidate could make multiple appearances there and Boston, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh all in the same week and guarantee extensive local news coverage for nearly 40 million people, about 15% of the electorate. Even with AZ they would only reach about half as many people covering the Great Plains and Mountain West, but would have to jet around half the country to do it.

There are sound reasons not to do it that way, most of them having to do with sprinkling 5% of the planets population over half a continent.
Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.

Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!

LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Reply to message
Now That Romney Is Officially the Republican Presidential Nominee: Pick the President! - 29/02/2012 08:29:02 PM 1260 Views
I have never understood the point of the Electoral College. - 29/02/2012 11:39:11 PM 702 Views
You don't think like a politician then - 01/03/2012 12:38:36 AM 744 Views
I also have not seen most of that mentioned in the popular vs. electoral debate. - 01/03/2012 02:34:31 PM 630 Views
what about one vote one value? - 02/03/2012 11:51:32 PM 714 Views
That has not really changed. - 03/03/2012 03:30:34 AM 899 Views
a bit simplistic and unrealistic - 02/03/2012 11:44:02 PM 671 Views
When illustrating a point realism is not required and simplicity is a plus - 03/03/2012 03:04:26 AM 688 Views
I have a couple quibbles. - 03/03/2012 05:23:46 AM 716 Views
Oh, certainly, I'm over-generalizing but I was already getting long-winded - 03/03/2012 06:52:04 AM 676 Views
I hate when people do that. - 05/03/2012 09:49:36 AM 658 Views
What a bunch of waffle! - 03/03/2012 10:47:19 AM 820 Views
First you complain of simplicity then of my lack of brevity? - 03/03/2012 11:18:11 AM 607 Views
A simplistic argument doesn't mean it's brief *NM* - 03/03/2012 09:55:51 PM 336 Views
Also I don't like this refrain that implies only the POTUS vote matters - 03/03/2012 03:29:58 AM 833 Views
IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college. - 03/03/2012 05:57:41 AM 633 Views
Re: IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college. - 03/03/2012 07:02:30 AM 670 Views
*is learning* - 04/03/2012 09:49:42 PM 661 Views
Re: *is learning* - 04/03/2012 09:56:16 PM 675 Views
To the extent I can (yet again) claim to speak for Europeans... - 04/03/2012 10:33:01 PM 651 Views
I've fairly limited exposure and that from some years back - 04/03/2012 11:35:12 PM 712 Views
Re: *is learning* - 05/03/2012 12:08:08 AM 715 Views
You could imitate the French. - 07/03/2012 10:40:16 PM 649 Views
That seems... unlikely.... - 08/03/2012 03:03:54 PM 650 Views
I don't know much about Norwegian politics, but you seem to be wrong. - 03/03/2012 06:18:08 PM 689 Views
Do you happen to have that link, please? - 03/03/2012 06:46:31 PM 566 Views
Sure. - 03/03/2012 06:58:07 PM 740 Views
Guess we did not read far enough. - 03/03/2012 10:38:07 PM 683 Views
Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... - 03/03/2012 11:49:44 PM 886 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... - 05/03/2012 06:56:24 AM 683 Views
Fascinating. - 05/03/2012 10:52:32 PM 668 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... - 08/03/2012 07:11:12 PM 634 Views
Many valid reasons, including those Isaac cited. - 02/03/2012 02:26:37 AM 784 Views
Most states are ignored anyway - 02/03/2012 11:56:12 PM 860 Views
Why would we do something logical? Dude, you're utterly ridiculous. *NM* - 05/03/2012 04:53:38 PM 372 Views
I'm kind of sad- does this mean Santorum won't be providing wonderful sound bites anymore? - 01/03/2012 02:22:31 PM 624 Views
Nothing has shut him up yet, why should this? *NM* - 01/03/2012 05:27:30 PM 355 Views
Maybe he'll pull a Palin and go touring around the country *NM* - 01/03/2012 07:06:02 PM 323 Views
No, it probably means we will get more and worse than ever. - 01/03/2012 11:25:25 PM 803 Views
Romney or Obama, either way, America loses. *NM* - 02/03/2012 01:10:26 AM 448 Views
Hard to dispute that either; six of one, half a dozen of the other. - 02/03/2012 01:38:07 AM 605 Views
Couldn't agree more *NM* - 02/03/2012 06:52:51 PM 363 Views
It reminds me of when Denver backed into the NFL playoffs. - 02/03/2012 09:36:13 PM 599 Views
I'd agree hope and change was extremely unrealistic - 02/03/2012 11:58:57 PM 603 Views
Romney is damaged - 02/03/2012 11:27:33 PM 618 Views
Obama is rather damaged also; it will probably come down to FL and OH, yet again. - 03/03/2012 02:23:53 AM 724 Views
I'm hoping for Rubio as VP... then FL probably won't matter - 03/03/2012 04:28:08 AM 605 Views
You should put that on your license plates. - 03/03/2012 06:41:34 AM 728 Views
Re: You should put that on your license plates. - 03/03/2012 06:51:00 AM 676 Views
Ax murderers are people, too! - 04/03/2012 08:23:41 PM 629 Views
And what are you basing all of this on? - 03/03/2012 09:54:06 PM 718 Views
The closeness of several states when Obama was far more popular, and UTs heavily Mormon neighbors. - 03/03/2012 11:44:06 PM 673 Views
Wrong - 04/03/2012 08:08:56 AM 790 Views
Higher turnout magnifies the Mormon effect. - 04/03/2012 08:08:09 PM 829 Views
Your reasoning is flawed and if you can't see it there is no hope for you - 05/03/2012 11:39:04 PM 735 Views
Yeah, I think we had that conversation already, several times, in fact. - 07/03/2012 05:36:45 AM 571 Views
Do you have any knowledge of statistics at all? - 07/03/2012 09:04:15 PM 735 Views
I hate this message board - 07/03/2012 09:06:30 PM 530 Views
Some, though it is far from exhaustive. - 08/03/2012 02:29:06 PM 711 Views

Reply to Message