Obama is rather damaged also; it will probably come down to FL and OH, yet again. - Edit 1
Before modification by Joel at 03/03/2012 04:06:34 AM
he's likely to win the primary but the general election is nowhere near a certainty and as things stand Obama would be a slight favourite. That said if the economy goes backwards advantage Romney. Two things matter Obama's approval rating and the national popular vote. Unless it is essentially tied then whoever is leading the national popular vote will win the presidency. As for the map there are many pathways to victory for both a republican and democratic candidate. I wouldn't be suggesting the map favours Romney though.
Obama has virtually NO path to victory without at least one of them. Romney can phone in NC and MO, and CO and NV are nearly as automatic thanks to the Mormons. If he wins FL and OH also he is only 2 EVs short, which would come from IA, NM, VA or (most likely) NH.
On the other hand, Obama should easily hold PA, MI and WI (Romneys private career and WI governor Scott Walker should ensure that,) and then he just needs FL. Without FL, he can still win with 2 of the 3 largest remaining swing states—but he will not win NC again (he only won by 1% when he was a lot more popular.) He would basically need OH and either VA or NM and IA. Theoretically, he could win without OH or FL, but would need VA, IA, NM AND NH. If Romney cannot carry NH Obama will probably cruise to victory most places.
Winning FL or OH is virtually indispensable for both of them, however the popular vote falls. Obama only won the latter by 2% and the former by 4% last time, and he is much less popular now. Interestingly, the only OH city that has not shrunk since the 2000 census is Cincinatti (a GOP stronghold,) which has grown about 10%, bad news for Obama. Romney is a significantly weaker candidate than McCain was (he did lose to him, after all,) but Obama is FAR weaker than he was. The main reason the 2008 Democratic primary was so fierce was that the nominee was all but guaranteed election.
The best hope for Obama is that the extended primary forces Romney to go so right for so long he cannot get back to the middle once nominated (the same fate that befell McCain due to his shaky conservative cred.) Unfortunately for him, Romney does not face a candidate with his stature; he can remain above the fray and wait for his opponents to run out of money and credibility, especially since Paul is giving him so much help taking them down. What fascinates is me that Robomacare has loomed over presidential politics ever since Romney introduced it, but has received little mention during so far and will probably never get much. Romney cannot use it against Obama without it boomeranging, but his creation of the issue that created the Tea Party has been discussed relatively little during the primary.
By the way, you should come around more often; we have sunk to the level I seem to be considered the radical liberal now.
Though that is also in part because a certain other member does not talk politics much, but I will leave that to his discretion....