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Obama is rather damaged also; it will probably come down to FL and OH, yet again. Joel Send a noteboard - 03/03/2012 02:23:53 AM
he's likely to win the primary but the general election is nowhere near a certainty and as things stand Obama would be a slight favourite. That said if the economy goes backwards advantage Romney. Two things matter Obama's approval rating and the national popular vote. Unless it is essentially tied then whoever is leading the national popular vote will win the presidency. As for the map there are many pathways to victory for both a republican and democratic candidate. I wouldn't be suggesting the map favours Romney though.

Obama has virtually NO path to victory without at least one of them. Romney can phone in NC and MO, and CO and NV are nearly as automatic thanks to the Mormons. If he wins FL and OH also he is only 2 EVs short, which would come from IA, NM, VA or (most likely) NH.

On the other hand, Obama should easily hold PA, MI and WI (Romneys private career and WI governor Scott Walker should ensure that,) and then he just needs FL. Without FL, he can still win with 2 of the 3 largest remaining swing states—but he will not win NC again (he only won by 1% when he was a lot more popular.) He would basically need OH and either VA or NM and IA. Theoretically, he could win without OH or FL, but would need VA, IA, NM AND NH. If Romney cannot carry NH Obama will probably cruise to victory most places.

Winning FL or OH is virtually indispensable for both of them, however the popular vote falls. Obama only won the latter by 2% and the former by 4% last time, and he is much less popular now. Interestingly, the only OH city that has not shrunk since the 2000 census is Cincinatti (a GOP stronghold,) which has grown about 10%, bad news for Obama. Romney is a significantly weaker candidate than McCain was (he did lose to him, after all,) but Obama is FAR weaker than he was. The main reason the 2008 Democratic primary was so fierce was that the nominee was all but guaranteed election.

The best hope for Obama is that the extended primary forces Romney to go so right for so long he cannot get back to the middle once nominated (the same fate that befell McCain due to his shaky conservative cred.) Unfortunately for him, Romney does not face a candidate with his stature; he can remain above the fray and wait for his opponents to run out of money and credibility, especially since Paul is giving him so much help taking them down. What fascinates is me that Robomacare has loomed over presidential politics ever since Romney introduced it, but has received little mention during so far and will probably never get much. Romney cannot use it against Obama without it boomeranging, but his creation of the issue that created the Tea Party has been discussed relatively little during the primary.

By the way, you should come around more often; we have sunk to the level I seem to be considered the radical liberal now. :P Though that is also in part because a certain other member does not talk politics much, but I will leave that to his discretion....
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This message last edited by Joel on 03/03/2012 at 04:06:34 AM
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Now That Romney Is Officially the Republican Presidential Nominee: Pick the President! - 29/02/2012 08:29:02 PM 1330 Views
I have never understood the point of the Electoral College. - 29/02/2012 11:39:11 PM 759 Views
You don't think like a politician then - 01/03/2012 12:38:36 AM 813 Views
I also have not seen most of that mentioned in the popular vs. electoral debate. - 01/03/2012 02:34:31 PM 687 Views
what about one vote one value? - 02/03/2012 11:51:32 PM 790 Views
That has not really changed. - 03/03/2012 03:30:34 AM 964 Views
a bit simplistic and unrealistic - 02/03/2012 11:44:02 PM 740 Views
When illustrating a point realism is not required and simplicity is a plus - 03/03/2012 03:04:26 AM 760 Views
I have a couple quibbles. - 03/03/2012 05:23:46 AM 790 Views
Oh, certainly, I'm over-generalizing but I was already getting long-winded - 03/03/2012 06:52:04 AM 730 Views
I hate when people do that. - 05/03/2012 09:49:36 AM 734 Views
What a bunch of waffle! - 03/03/2012 10:47:19 AM 881 Views
First you complain of simplicity then of my lack of brevity? - 03/03/2012 11:18:11 AM 673 Views
A simplistic argument doesn't mean it's brief *NM* - 03/03/2012 09:55:51 PM 366 Views
Also I don't like this refrain that implies only the POTUS vote matters - 03/03/2012 03:29:58 AM 894 Views
IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college. - 03/03/2012 05:57:41 AM 696 Views
Re: IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college. - 03/03/2012 07:02:30 AM 729 Views
*is learning* - 04/03/2012 09:49:42 PM 729 Views
Re: *is learning* - 04/03/2012 09:56:16 PM 752 Views
To the extent I can (yet again) claim to speak for Europeans... - 04/03/2012 10:33:01 PM 701 Views
I've fairly limited exposure and that from some years back - 04/03/2012 11:35:12 PM 780 Views
Re: *is learning* - 05/03/2012 12:08:08 AM 780 Views
You could imitate the French. - 07/03/2012 10:40:16 PM 718 Views
That seems... unlikely.... - 08/03/2012 03:03:54 PM 720 Views
I don't know much about Norwegian politics, but you seem to be wrong. - 03/03/2012 06:18:08 PM 763 Views
Do you happen to have that link, please? - 03/03/2012 06:46:31 PM 621 Views
Sure. - 03/03/2012 06:58:07 PM 799 Views
Guess we did not read far enough. - 03/03/2012 10:38:07 PM 744 Views
Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... - 03/03/2012 11:49:44 PM 948 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... - 05/03/2012 06:56:24 AM 744 Views
Fascinating. - 05/03/2012 10:52:32 PM 741 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics... - 08/03/2012 07:11:12 PM 692 Views
Many valid reasons, including those Isaac cited. - 02/03/2012 02:26:37 AM 850 Views
Most states are ignored anyway - 02/03/2012 11:56:12 PM 917 Views
Why would we do something logical? Dude, you're utterly ridiculous. *NM* - 05/03/2012 04:53:38 PM 397 Views
I'm kind of sad- does this mean Santorum won't be providing wonderful sound bites anymore? - 01/03/2012 02:22:31 PM 690 Views
Nothing has shut him up yet, why should this? *NM* - 01/03/2012 05:27:30 PM 381 Views
Maybe he'll pull a Palin and go touring around the country *NM* - 01/03/2012 07:06:02 PM 347 Views
No, it probably means we will get more and worse than ever. - 01/03/2012 11:25:25 PM 860 Views
Romney or Obama, either way, America loses. *NM* - 02/03/2012 01:10:26 AM 476 Views
Hard to dispute that either; six of one, half a dozen of the other. - 02/03/2012 01:38:07 AM 666 Views
Couldn't agree more *NM* - 02/03/2012 06:52:51 PM 383 Views
It reminds me of when Denver backed into the NFL playoffs. - 02/03/2012 09:36:13 PM 652 Views
I'd agree hope and change was extremely unrealistic - 02/03/2012 11:58:57 PM 665 Views
Romney is damaged - 02/03/2012 11:27:33 PM 675 Views
Obama is rather damaged also; it will probably come down to FL and OH, yet again. - 03/03/2012 02:23:53 AM 797 Views
I'm hoping for Rubio as VP... then FL probably won't matter - 03/03/2012 04:28:08 AM 658 Views
You should put that on your license plates. - 03/03/2012 06:41:34 AM 786 Views
Re: You should put that on your license plates. - 03/03/2012 06:51:00 AM 736 Views
Ax murderers are people, too! - 04/03/2012 08:23:41 PM 686 Views
And what are you basing all of this on? - 03/03/2012 09:54:06 PM 784 Views
The closeness of several states when Obama was far more popular, and UTs heavily Mormon neighbors. - 03/03/2012 11:44:06 PM 738 Views
Wrong - 04/03/2012 08:08:56 AM 856 Views
Higher turnout magnifies the Mormon effect. - 04/03/2012 08:08:09 PM 901 Views
Your reasoning is flawed and if you can't see it there is no hope for you - 05/03/2012 11:39:04 PM 811 Views
Yeah, I think we had that conversation already, several times, in fact. - 07/03/2012 05:36:45 AM 647 Views
Do you have any knowledge of statistics at all? - 07/03/2012 09:04:15 PM 810 Views
I hate this message board - 07/03/2012 09:06:30 PM 587 Views
Some, though it is far from exhaustive. - 08/03/2012 02:29:06 PM 782 Views

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