Obama is rather damaged also; it will probably come down to FL and OH, yet again.
Joel Send a noteboard - 03/03/2012 02:23:53 AM
he's likely to win the primary but the general election is nowhere near a certainty and as things stand Obama would be a slight favourite. That said if the economy goes backwards advantage Romney. Two things matter Obama's approval rating and the national popular vote. Unless it is essentially tied then whoever is leading the national popular vote will win the presidency. As for the map there are many pathways to victory for both a republican and democratic candidate. I wouldn't be suggesting the map favours Romney though.
Obama has virtually NO path to victory without at least one of them. Romney can phone in NC and MO, and CO and NV are nearly as automatic thanks to the Mormons. If he wins FL and OH also he is only 2 EVs short, which would come from IA, NM, VA or (most likely) NH.
On the other hand, Obama should easily hold PA, MI and WI (Romneys private career and WI governor Scott Walker should ensure that,) and then he just needs FL. Without FL, he can still win with 2 of the 3 largest remaining swing states—but he will not win NC again (he only won by 1% when he was a lot more popular.) He would basically need OH and either VA or NM and IA. Theoretically, he could win without OH or FL, but would need VA, IA, NM AND NH. If Romney cannot carry NH Obama will probably cruise to victory most places.
Winning FL or OH is virtually indispensable for both of them, however the popular vote falls. Obama only won the latter by 2% and the former by 4% last time, and he is much less popular now. Interestingly, the only OH city that has not shrunk since the 2000 census is Cincinatti (a GOP stronghold,) which has grown about 10%, bad news for Obama. Romney is a significantly weaker candidate than McCain was (he did lose to him, after all,) but Obama is FAR weaker than he was. The main reason the 2008 Democratic primary was so fierce was that the nominee was all but guaranteed election.
The best hope for Obama is that the extended primary forces Romney to go so right for so long he cannot get back to the middle once nominated (the same fate that befell McCain due to his shaky conservative cred.) Unfortunately for him, Romney does not face a candidate with his stature; he can remain above the fray and wait for his opponents to run out of money and credibility, especially since Paul is giving him so much help taking them down. What fascinates is me that Robomacare has loomed over presidential politics ever since Romney introduced it, but has received little mention during so far and will probably never get much. Romney cannot use it against Obama without it boomeranging, but his creation of the issue that created the Tea Party has been discussed relatively little during the primary.
By the way, you should come around more often; we have sunk to the level I seem to be considered the radical liberal now. Though that is also in part because a certain other member does not talk politics much, but I will leave that to his discretion....
Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
This message last edited by Joel on 03/03/2012 at 04:06:34 AM
Now That Romney Is Officially the Republican Presidential Nominee: Pick the President!
29/02/2012 08:29:02 PM
- 1261 Views
I agree Romney will be the candidate.
29/02/2012 08:54:52 PM
- 655 Views
I would say the math favors Romney over Obama, but it will probably be close either way.
01/03/2012 03:37:52 PM
- 701 Views
I have never understood the point of the Electoral College.
29/02/2012 11:39:11 PM
- 703 Views
You don't think like a politician then
01/03/2012 12:38:36 AM
- 745 Views
I certainly hadn't considered much of that. I'm glad you posted it. *NM*
01/03/2012 07:15:03 AM
- 314 Views
I also have not seen most of that mentioned in the popular vs. electoral debate.
01/03/2012 02:34:31 PM
- 630 Views
a bit simplistic and unrealistic
02/03/2012 11:44:02 PM
- 672 Views
When illustrating a point realism is not required and simplicity is a plus
03/03/2012 03:04:26 AM
- 689 Views
I have a couple quibbles.
03/03/2012 05:23:46 AM
- 717 Views
Oh, certainly, I'm over-generalizing but I was already getting long-winded
03/03/2012 06:52:04 AM
- 677 Views
What a bunch of waffle!
03/03/2012 10:47:19 AM
- 821 Views
Also I don't like this refrain that implies only the POTUS vote matters
03/03/2012 03:29:58 AM
- 833 Views
IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college.
03/03/2012 05:57:41 AM
- 633 Views
Re: IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college.
03/03/2012 07:02:30 AM
- 671 Views
*is learning*
04/03/2012 09:49:42 PM
- 662 Views
Re: *is learning*
04/03/2012 09:56:16 PM
- 676 Views
Re: *is learning*
05/03/2012 12:08:08 AM
- 716 Views
You could imitate the French.
07/03/2012 10:40:16 PM
- 650 Views
That seems... unlikely....
08/03/2012 03:03:54 PM
- 650 Views
It does, doesn't it?
08/03/2012 06:11:08 PM
- 848 Views
After I thought about it more, I realized France and the US are not so different in that respect.
08/03/2012 08:51:03 PM
- 625 Views
More similar than the other major Western democracies at least, agreed.
08/03/2012 09:32:55 PM
- 604 Views
I did not realize lack of a parliamentary majority dictated his cabinet.
09/03/2012 12:27:31 AM
- 684 Views
I don't know much about Norwegian politics, but you seem to be wrong.
03/03/2012 06:18:08 PM
- 690 Views
Do you happen to have that link, please?
03/03/2012 06:46:31 PM
- 566 Views
Sure.
03/03/2012 06:58:07 PM
- 740 Views
Guess we did not read far enough.
03/03/2012 10:38:07 PM
- 683 Views
Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics...
03/03/2012 11:49:44 PM
- 887 Views
Hey, man, I am an AMERICAN: I do not HAVE to know ANYTHING!
04/03/2012 11:46:57 PM
- 906 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics...
05/03/2012 06:56:24 AM
- 684 Views
The thing is, regions often have national relevance far greater than their populations would suggest
05/03/2012 10:21:26 AM
- 632 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics...
08/03/2012 07:11:12 PM
- 635 Views
Many valid reasons, including those Isaac cited.
02/03/2012 02:26:37 AM
- 784 Views
Most states are ignored anyway
02/03/2012 11:56:12 PM
- 860 Views
Only because and to the extent they have already committed themselves.
03/03/2012 03:41:39 AM
- 709 Views
Why would we do something logical? Dude, you're utterly ridiculous. *NM*
05/03/2012 04:53:38 PM
- 373 Views
I'm kind of sad- does this mean Santorum won't be providing wonderful sound bites anymore?
01/03/2012 02:22:31 PM
- 624 Views
Romney or Obama, either way, America loses. *NM*
02/03/2012 01:10:26 AM
- 449 Views
Hard to dispute that either; six of one, half a dozen of the other.
02/03/2012 01:38:07 AM
- 605 Views
I'd agree hope and change was extremely unrealistic
02/03/2012 11:58:57 PM
- 603 Views
Well, you know my story there; I voted for Obama and got Hillary (at best.)
03/03/2012 01:43:20 AM
- 618 Views
Update: Despite rules requiring they be split, the MI GOP is giving Romney BOTH statewide delegates.
02/03/2012 11:10:56 PM
- 705 Views
Romney is damaged
02/03/2012 11:27:33 PM
- 619 Views
Obama is rather damaged also; it will probably come down to FL and OH, yet again.
03/03/2012 02:23:53 AM
- 725 Views
I'm hoping for Rubio as VP... then FL probably won't matter
03/03/2012 04:28:08 AM
- 606 Views
You should put that on your license plates.
03/03/2012 06:41:34 AM
- 728 Views
And what are you basing all of this on?
03/03/2012 09:54:06 PM
- 719 Views
The closeness of several states when Obama was far more popular, and UTs heavily Mormon neighbors.
03/03/2012 11:44:06 PM
- 674 Views
Wrong
04/03/2012 08:08:56 AM
- 791 Views
Higher turnout magnifies the Mormon effect.
04/03/2012 08:08:09 PM
- 829 Views
Your reasoning is flawed and if you can't see it there is no hope for you
05/03/2012 11:39:04 PM
- 735 Views
Yeah, I think we had that conversation already, several times, in fact.
07/03/2012 05:36:45 AM
- 572 Views
Do you have any knowledge of statistics at all?
07/03/2012 09:04:15 PM
- 735 Views
I hate this message board
07/03/2012 09:06:30 PM
- 530 Views
It would probably help if you deleted the stuff from two, three posts back?
07/03/2012 09:25:40 PM
- 646 Views