Unless he comes out as a wife swapper or something, he is unstoppable.
Joel Send a noteboard - 03/03/2012 01:28:09 AM
How different might the world be if Jeri Ryans statements about her ex had not become public when he was running against Obama...?
It is hard to be certain, but moneybombing seems to already be having an effect in OH, definitely a state critical to the GOP nomination. Santorum still leads, but his numbers are slipping, though part of that could also be due to Romneys momentum from Tuesday. It and GA are the only big Super Tuesday states, and the only possible big story out of GA would be Gingrich failing to win it; if Romney pulls off an upset there and an another come from behind ad-saturation victory in OH, we can stick a fork in this primary season.
But consider the other states:
WA is liberal to moderate territory; Gingrich will score no points preaching Islamofascism there, nor Santorum preaching total abortion bans. The same applies to MA and VT, with the added bonus for Romney that he was twice Governor of the former, and even independent VT/NH voters like New Englanders. In VA, the only other candidate on the ballot is Paul. Idaho, well, any state adjacent UT is Romney territory. That is five states with a total of 182 delegates where Romney should cruise to victory. There are just short of 300 available in the other six, and Romney should get about half as long as he finishes at least a respectable second everywhere else. With Santorum and Gingrich splitting the Not-Romney vote that seems a safe bet. The 140 delegates in GA and OH, and the 100 in TN and OK, would all be nice plums for Romney and largely finish the contest, but are far from indispensable.
I do not know the arcane allocation methods in each of those 11 states, but unless several are rather unusual (e.g. AZ retaining the traditional GOP winner-take-all format) Romney out to come out of Super Tuesday with close to 300 more delegates, nearly tripling his total. The rest will be hopelessly divided between Gingrich and Santorum (imagine a very plausible scenario where Gingrich wins OK AND TN on top of GA; where does that leave the race? Advantage: Romney.) Even if other state GOPs do not follow MIs lead and give Romney extra delegates in defiance of both the rules and election results (and there have been some VERY dubious primary outcomes throughout the primary season so far) a brokered convention is a virtual impossibility. If it comes to that, however, Romney can always lock up the nomination by offering Gingrich the VP slot, which he would probably accept.
it's most certainly not over yet. He is not a sure thing in Ohio which would then raise questions about his candidacy if he doesn't win it. Likewise with Tennessee. He's the most definite favourite but it's not like he can't be stopped it's just that the best chance to stop him was Michigan. Had he lost there he would have been in serious trouble regardless of Arizona.
To be clear yeah he's the very definite favourite by a big margin but he can't take it for granted.
To be clear yeah he's the very definite favourite by a big margin but he can't take it for granted.
It is hard to be certain, but moneybombing seems to already be having an effect in OH, definitely a state critical to the GOP nomination. Santorum still leads, but his numbers are slipping, though part of that could also be due to Romneys momentum from Tuesday. It and GA are the only big Super Tuesday states, and the only possible big story out of GA would be Gingrich failing to win it; if Romney pulls off an upset there and an another come from behind ad-saturation victory in OH, we can stick a fork in this primary season.
But consider the other states:
WA is liberal to moderate territory; Gingrich will score no points preaching Islamofascism there, nor Santorum preaching total abortion bans. The same applies to MA and VT, with the added bonus for Romney that he was twice Governor of the former, and even independent VT/NH voters like New Englanders. In VA, the only other candidate on the ballot is Paul. Idaho, well, any state adjacent UT is Romney territory. That is five states with a total of 182 delegates where Romney should cruise to victory. There are just short of 300 available in the other six, and Romney should get about half as long as he finishes at least a respectable second everywhere else. With Santorum and Gingrich splitting the Not-Romney vote that seems a safe bet. The 140 delegates in GA and OH, and the 100 in TN and OK, would all be nice plums for Romney and largely finish the contest, but are far from indispensable.
I do not know the arcane allocation methods in each of those 11 states, but unless several are rather unusual (e.g. AZ retaining the traditional GOP winner-take-all format) Romney out to come out of Super Tuesday with close to 300 more delegates, nearly tripling his total. The rest will be hopelessly divided between Gingrich and Santorum (imagine a very plausible scenario where Gingrich wins OK AND TN on top of GA; where does that leave the race? Advantage: Romney.) Even if other state GOPs do not follow MIs lead and give Romney extra delegates in defiance of both the rules and election results (and there have been some VERY dubious primary outcomes throughout the primary season so far) a brokered convention is a virtual impossibility. If it comes to that, however, Romney can always lock up the nomination by offering Gingrich the VP slot, which he would probably accept.
Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Why Romney Is (Still) the Only Republican Presidential Candidate.
27/02/2012 02:07:18 PM
- 1157 Views
also, do we really want president "ass juice" running this country? *NM*
27/02/2012 03:06:06 PM
- 246 Views
Oh, I am not worried about that; Romney is also the only potential nominee who can be elected.
27/02/2012 04:12:35 PM
- 486 Views
Didn't you notice? We have approximately 16-20 years more of that?
05/03/2012 04:46:32 PM
- 506 Views
it was more of a comment on the alternate meaning of santorum not a political statement *NM*
06/03/2012 02:59:04 AM
- 210 Views
Why do you go to so much effort to state the obvious? *NM*
27/02/2012 05:10:14 PM
- 182 Views
Because many people still have the idea it is not obvious.
27/02/2012 06:42:00 PM
- 431 Views
But he's not
03/03/2012 12:23:45 AM
- 466 Views
All road maps for Santorum (or anyone) go through the GOP leadership.
03/03/2012 01:01:07 AM
- 510 Views
So, four more years then?
29/02/2012 06:36:03 AM
- 457 Views
Most likely, but Tom is almost certainly right the economy will tell the tale.
29/02/2012 10:12:28 AM
- 537 Views
Most likely he is the nominee, but
03/03/2012 12:18:23 AM
- 449 Views
Unless he comes out as a wife swapper or something, he is unstoppable.
03/03/2012 01:28:09 AM
- 510 Views
He isn't unstoppable
03/03/2012 10:01:51 PM
- 524 Views
Statistically, yes; realistically, the primary, and Romneys opponents, are all finished.
04/03/2012 12:09:48 AM
- 504 Views
If the election were held now
04/03/2012 08:17:34 AM
- 479 Views
The primary certainly helped Obamas chances, as do marginally better economic numbers.
04/03/2012 06:02:25 PM
- 442 Views