The below linked site allows users to assign each state to the party they think will win it, thereby picking not only the next US president but his path to victory as well. There are already several of these, and will surely be many more soon, but this one defaults to filling in all but the currently projected "battleground" or "swing" states that will decide the election since all other states are already decided.
For those who forgot/ were unaware, the 2010 census means this years map is different than 2008s, and for Obama fans "change" is almost universally bad. 8 states Obama won in 2008 have 10 less Electoral Votes now, and 3 have 4 more; net -6 in blue states.
Worse still, of the 3 growing states Obama won, FL (which he only won by 2% in his 2008 landslide) gained 2 EVs. Furthermore, NV, like all states adjacent to UT, has a huge Mormon population that heavily favors Romney. That is not a religious attack, just simple math: Polls show about 75% of Mormon voters prefer Romney to Obama; the rest are about equally split between Obama and "no one." That is also bad news for Dems in CO (which they won by 8% last time,) but rather than duplicating the 12% 2008 victory, they will be lucky to win NV at all.
The only bright spot for Obama is WA, which he will win easily, gained a single lonely EV. Otherwise, even the good news is pretty bad; every 2008 red state that gained EVs was SOLIDLY red (GA was closest at 5%,) no close red state gained any (MO actually lost 1) and every solid blue state except CA lost EVs (NY lost 2.) The upshot is even if Obama did as well as last time he would be down a minimum of 6 EVs, but he was a lot more popular then.
The states to watch are still "the big three:" FL, OH and PA; the last person to win the presidency with only one of them was JFK. PA is leans heavily Democratic at this point; even Gore and Kerry won it (though by relatively small margins.) FL and OH, however, lean heavily Republican. Obama was the first Dem since Clinton to win either, and by small margins despite his overall landslide (only 2% in OH; the EVs made that election look more lopsided than it was, because he won 4 of the 6 states decided by <5%, and 3 of the 4 decided by ≤2%.) I frankly do not expect Obama to hold FL unless Romney commits some major gaffe(s,) but the latters well earned corporate raider reputation will likely hurt him badly throughout the Rust Belt, and if that includes OH he is in trouble. In fact, I think Romney will get hammered throughout the Midwest except for IN and possibly OH; IA is a long shot, but if he could not get a majority of the states conservative Republicans the general electorate will have to feel Obama VERY liberal for Romney to win there.
Looking over the map though, Romney winning the presidency without OH looks a lot more plausible than Obama doing so. I can see Obama getting within 22 that way if he sweeps the whole Midwest except OH and IN but then it gets REALLY hard; the best bets look like snaking NH from Romney, NM being far enough from UT to hold and either holding VA or CO and NV. I just do not think Obama can win CO AND NV unless Romney blunders badly though, so it may come down to a VA scenario similar to OH, except instead of wondering whether Sherrod Brown or John Kasich drag down Obama or Romney, or vice versa, we must wonder whether Tim Kaine or George Allen save or are saved by Obama or Romney.
Oh, yeah, and there were two more GOP primaries yesterday.
Which effectively ended the nomination race in Romneys favor, though listening to the coverage you would never guess he won both states (by about 20% in AZ; what a difference being next door to UT makes.) For those not following closely, the difference is Romney now has as much as everyone else combined+39 and Santorum now has roughly half what Romney had before+11. Just as when Gingrich had nearly a double digit lead a week before the IA caucus only to finish fourth after Romney outspent him 30 to 1 in the last week, Romney moneybombed his way to a seemingly impossible comeback in the last week before the MI primary. Super Tuesday might test his ability to do that in ten states at once (reports are his donor list is running short and he "might" have to dip into his personal $200 million fortune to continue campaigning ) but will not really change anything. The UNSTOPPABLE JUGGERNAUT has repulsed a fourth insurgency from the two remaining not-Romneys, and one has to wonder how well THEIR coffers are doing. Ron Pauls seem to be doing just fine, and is still hammering away at anyone who threatens to unseat Romney as the frontrunner, seemingly unaware there is no prize for finishing second.
Rick Santorum certainly seems to agree with that last part: http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/arizona-gop-debates-end-low-point/390691
So does Politico, apparently: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73424_Page3.html
Congratulations, Ron; a generation of marketing yourself as the only principled candid conservative in DC have ended by reducing yourself to a shill for the phoniest candidate to come out of DC in that generation. Latest polls who Santorum up by 11 on Romney in OH a week before the primary: Moneybombs, away....
If you enjoy wasting your time as much as I do you can track the delegate count here: http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates
Maybe instead of polls we should start POOLS on what date/state will clinch Romneys nomination; I only wish I had thought of that back on Christmas '08.
The God King mourns...
Now That Romney Is Officially the Republican Presidential Nominee: Pick the President!
29/02/2012 08:29:02 PM
- 1261 Views
I agree Romney will be the candidate.
29/02/2012 08:54:52 PM
- 655 Views
I would say the math favors Romney over Obama, but it will probably be close either way.
01/03/2012 03:37:52 PM
- 701 Views
I have never understood the point of the Electoral College.
29/02/2012 11:39:11 PM
- 703 Views
You don't think like a politician then
01/03/2012 12:38:36 AM
- 745 Views
I certainly hadn't considered much of that. I'm glad you posted it. *NM*
01/03/2012 07:15:03 AM
- 314 Views
I also have not seen most of that mentioned in the popular vs. electoral debate.
01/03/2012 02:34:31 PM
- 630 Views
a bit simplistic and unrealistic
02/03/2012 11:44:02 PM
- 672 Views
When illustrating a point realism is not required and simplicity is a plus
03/03/2012 03:04:26 AM
- 689 Views
I have a couple quibbles.
03/03/2012 05:23:46 AM
- 717 Views
Oh, certainly, I'm over-generalizing but I was already getting long-winded
03/03/2012 06:52:04 AM
- 676 Views
What a bunch of waffle!
03/03/2012 10:47:19 AM
- 820 Views
Also I don't like this refrain that implies only the POTUS vote matters
03/03/2012 03:29:58 AM
- 833 Views
IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college.
03/03/2012 05:57:41 AM
- 633 Views
Re: IMHO, parliaments choosing prime ministers is LESS democratic than the electoral college.
03/03/2012 07:02:30 AM
- 670 Views
*is learning*
04/03/2012 09:49:42 PM
- 662 Views
Re: *is learning*
04/03/2012 09:56:16 PM
- 676 Views
Re: *is learning*
05/03/2012 12:08:08 AM
- 716 Views
You could imitate the French.
07/03/2012 10:40:16 PM
- 649 Views
That seems... unlikely....
08/03/2012 03:03:54 PM
- 650 Views
It does, doesn't it?
08/03/2012 06:11:08 PM
- 848 Views
After I thought about it more, I realized France and the US are not so different in that respect.
08/03/2012 08:51:03 PM
- 625 Views
More similar than the other major Western democracies at least, agreed.
08/03/2012 09:32:55 PM
- 604 Views
I did not realize lack of a parliamentary majority dictated his cabinet.
09/03/2012 12:27:31 AM
- 684 Views
I don't know much about Norwegian politics, but you seem to be wrong.
03/03/2012 06:18:08 PM
- 690 Views
Do you happen to have that link, please?
03/03/2012 06:46:31 PM
- 566 Views
Sure.
03/03/2012 06:58:07 PM
- 740 Views
Guess we did not read far enough.
03/03/2012 10:38:07 PM
- 683 Views
Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics...
03/03/2012 11:49:44 PM
- 887 Views
Hey, man, I am an AMERICAN: I do not HAVE to know ANYTHING!
04/03/2012 11:46:57 PM
- 906 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics...
05/03/2012 06:56:24 AM
- 684 Views
The thing is, regions often have national relevance far greater than their populations would suggest
05/03/2012 10:21:26 AM
- 632 Views
Re: Yeah, you have to know a few things about European politics...
08/03/2012 07:11:12 PM
- 635 Views
Many valid reasons, including those Isaac cited.
02/03/2012 02:26:37 AM
- 784 Views
Most states are ignored anyway
02/03/2012 11:56:12 PM
- 860 Views
Only because and to the extent they have already committed themselves.
03/03/2012 03:41:39 AM
- 709 Views
Why would we do something logical? Dude, you're utterly ridiculous. *NM*
05/03/2012 04:53:38 PM
- 373 Views
I'm kind of sad- does this mean Santorum won't be providing wonderful sound bites anymore?
01/03/2012 02:22:31 PM
- 624 Views
Romney or Obama, either way, America loses. *NM*
02/03/2012 01:10:26 AM
- 449 Views
Hard to dispute that either; six of one, half a dozen of the other.
02/03/2012 01:38:07 AM
- 605 Views
I'd agree hope and change was extremely unrealistic
02/03/2012 11:58:57 PM
- 603 Views
Well, you know my story there; I voted for Obama and got Hillary (at best.)
03/03/2012 01:43:20 AM
- 618 Views
Update: Despite rules requiring they be split, the MI GOP is giving Romney BOTH statewide delegates.
02/03/2012 11:10:56 PM
- 704 Views
Romney is damaged
02/03/2012 11:27:33 PM
- 619 Views
Obama is rather damaged also; it will probably come down to FL and OH, yet again.
03/03/2012 02:23:53 AM
- 724 Views
I'm hoping for Rubio as VP... then FL probably won't matter
03/03/2012 04:28:08 AM
- 606 Views
You should put that on your license plates.
03/03/2012 06:41:34 AM
- 728 Views
And what are you basing all of this on?
03/03/2012 09:54:06 PM
- 719 Views
The closeness of several states when Obama was far more popular, and UTs heavily Mormon neighbors.
03/03/2012 11:44:06 PM
- 674 Views
Wrong
04/03/2012 08:08:56 AM
- 790 Views
Higher turnout magnifies the Mormon effect.
04/03/2012 08:08:09 PM
- 829 Views
Your reasoning is flawed and if you can't see it there is no hope for you
05/03/2012 11:39:04 PM
- 735 Views
Yeah, I think we had that conversation already, several times, in fact.
07/03/2012 05:36:45 AM
- 572 Views
Do you have any knowledge of statistics at all?
07/03/2012 09:04:15 PM
- 735 Views
I hate this message board
07/03/2012 09:06:30 PM
- 530 Views
It would probably help if you deleted the stuff from two, three posts back?
07/03/2012 09:25:40 PM
- 646 Views