Now That Romney Is Officially the Republican Presidential Nominee: Pick the President! 
- Edit 1
- Edit 1Before modification by Joel at 29/02/2012 08:30:16 PM
The below linked site allows users to assign each state to the party they think will win it, thereby picking not only the next US president but his path to victory as well. There are already several of these, and will surely be many more soon, but this one defaults to filling in all but the currently projected "battleground" or "swing" states that will decide the election since all other states are already decided.
For those who forgot/ were unaware, the 2010 census means this years map is different than 2008s, and for Obama fans "change" is almost universally bad. 8 states Obama won in 2008 have 10 less Electoral Votes now, and 3 have 4 more; net -6 in blue states.
Worse still, of the 3 growing states Obama won, FL (which he only won by 2% in his 2008 landslide) gained 2 EVs. Furthermore, NV, like all states adjacent to UT, has a huge Mormon population that heavily favors Romney. That is not a religious attack, just simple math: Polls show about 75% of Mormon voters prefer Romney to Obama; the rest are about equally split between Obama and "no one." That is also bad news for Dems in CO (which they won by 8% last time,) but rather than duplicating the 12% 2008 victory, they will be lucky to win NV at all.
The only bright spot for Obama is WA, which he will win easily, gained a single lonely EV. Otherwise, even the good news is pretty bad; every 2008 red state that gained EVs was SOLIDLY red (GA was closest at 5%,) no close red state gained any (MO actually lost 1) and every solid blue state except CA lost EVs (NY lost 2.) The upshot is even if Obama did as well as last time he would be down a minimum of 6 EVs, but he was a lot more popular then.
The states to watch are still "the big three:" FL, OH and PA; the last person to win the presidency with only one of them was JFK. PA is leans heavily Democratic at this point; even Gore and Kerry won it (though by relatively small margins.) FL and OH, however, lean heavily Republican. Obama was the first Dem since Clinton to win either, and by small margins despite his overall landslide (only 2% in OH; the EVs made that election look more lopsided than it was, because he won 4 of the 6 states decided by <5%, and 3 of the 4 decided by ≤2%.) I frankly do not expect Obama to hold FL unless Romney commits some major gaffe(s,) but the latters well earned corporate raider reputation will likely hurt him badly throughout the Rust Belt, and if that includes OH he is in trouble. In fact, I think Romney will get hammered throughout the Midwest except for IN and possibly OH; IA is a long shot, but if he could not get a majority of the states conservative Republicans the general electorate will have to feel Obama VERY liberal for Romney to win there.
Looking over the map though, Romney winning the presidency without OH looks a lot more plausible than Obama doing so. I can see Obama getting within 22 that way if he sweeps the whole Midwest except OH and IN but then it gets REALLY hard; the best bets look like snaking NH from Romney, NM being far enough from UT to hold and either holding VA or CO and NV. I just do not think Obama can win CO AND NV unless Romney blunders badly though, so it may come down to a VA scenario similar to OH, except instead of wondering whether Sherrod Brown or John Kasich drag down Obama or Romney, or vice versa, we must wonder whether Tim Kaine or George Allen save or are saved by Obama or Romney.
Oh, yeah, and there were two more GOP primaries yesterday.
Which effectively ended the nomination race in Romneys favor, though listening to the coverage you would never guess he won both states (by about 20% in AZ; what a difference being next door to UT makes.) For those not following closely, the difference is Romney now has as much as everyone else combined+39 and Santorum now has roughly half what Romney had before+11. Just as when Gingrich had nearly a double digit lead a week before the IA caucus only to finish fourth after Romney outspent him 30 to 1 in the last week, Romney moneybombed his way to a seemingly impossible comeback in the last week before the MI primary. Super Tuesday might test his ability to do that in ten states at once (reports are his donor list is running short and he "might" have to dip into his personal $200 million fortune to continue campaigning
) but will not really change anything. The UNSTOPPABLE JUGGERNAUT has repulsed a fourth insurgency from the two remaining not-Romneys, and one has to wonder how well THEIR coffers are doing. Ron Pauls seem to be doing just fine, and is still hammering away at anyone who threatens to unseat Romney as the frontrunner, seemingly unaware there is no prize for finishing second.
Rick Santorum certainly seems to agree with that last part: http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/arizona-gop-debates-end-low-point/390691
So does Politico, apparently: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73424_Page3.html
Congratulations, Ron; a generation of marketing yourself as the only principled candid conservative in DC have ended by reducing yourself to a shill for the phoniest candidate to come out of DC in that generation. Latest polls who Santorum up by 11 on Romney in OH a week before the primary: Moneybombs, away....
If you enjoy wasting your time as much as I do you can track the delegate count here: http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates
Maybe instead of polls we should start POOLS on what date/state will clinch Romneys nomination; I only wish I had thought of that back on Christmas '08.
For those who forgot/ were unaware, the 2010 census means this years map is different than 2008s, and for Obama fans "change" is almost universally bad. 8 states Obama won in 2008 have 10 less Electoral Votes now, and 3 have 4 more; net -6 in blue states.
Worse still, of the 3 growing states Obama won, FL (which he only won by 2% in his 2008 landslide) gained 2 EVs. Furthermore, NV, like all states adjacent to UT, has a huge Mormon population that heavily favors Romney. That is not a religious attack, just simple math: Polls show about 75% of Mormon voters prefer Romney to Obama; the rest are about equally split between Obama and "no one." That is also bad news for Dems in CO (which they won by 8% last time,) but rather than duplicating the 12% 2008 victory, they will be lucky to win NV at all.
The only bright spot for Obama is WA, which he will win easily, gained a single lonely EV. Otherwise, even the good news is pretty bad; every 2008 red state that gained EVs was SOLIDLY red (GA was closest at 5%,) no close red state gained any (MO actually lost 1) and every solid blue state except CA lost EVs (NY lost 2.) The upshot is even if Obama did as well as last time he would be down a minimum of 6 EVs, but he was a lot more popular then.
The states to watch are still "the big three:" FL, OH and PA; the last person to win the presidency with only one of them was JFK. PA is leans heavily Democratic at this point; even Gore and Kerry won it (though by relatively small margins.) FL and OH, however, lean heavily Republican. Obama was the first Dem since Clinton to win either, and by small margins despite his overall landslide (only 2% in OH; the EVs made that election look more lopsided than it was, because he won 4 of the 6 states decided by <5%, and 3 of the 4 decided by ≤2%.) I frankly do not expect Obama to hold FL unless Romney commits some major gaffe(s,) but the latters well earned corporate raider reputation will likely hurt him badly throughout the Rust Belt, and if that includes OH he is in trouble. In fact, I think Romney will get hammered throughout the Midwest except for IN and possibly OH; IA is a long shot, but if he could not get a majority of the states conservative Republicans the general electorate will have to feel Obama VERY liberal for Romney to win there.
Looking over the map though, Romney winning the presidency without OH looks a lot more plausible than Obama doing so. I can see Obama getting within 22 that way if he sweeps the whole Midwest except OH and IN but then it gets REALLY hard; the best bets look like snaking NH from Romney, NM being far enough from UT to hold and either holding VA or CO and NV. I just do not think Obama can win CO AND NV unless Romney blunders badly though, so it may come down to a VA scenario similar to OH, except instead of wondering whether Sherrod Brown or John Kasich drag down Obama or Romney, or vice versa, we must wonder whether Tim Kaine or George Allen save or are saved by Obama or Romney.
Oh, yeah, and there were two more GOP primaries yesterday.
Which effectively ended the nomination race in Romneys favor, though listening to the coverage you would never guess he won both states (by about 20% in AZ; what a difference being next door to UT makes.) For those not following closely, the difference is Romney now has as much as everyone else combined+39 and Santorum now has roughly half what Romney had before+11. Just as when Gingrich had nearly a double digit lead a week before the IA caucus only to finish fourth after Romney outspent him 30 to 1 in the last week, Romney moneybombed his way to a seemingly impossible comeback in the last week before the MI primary. Super Tuesday might test his ability to do that in ten states at once (reports are his donor list is running short and he "might" have to dip into his personal $200 million fortune to continue campaigning
) but will not really change anything. The UNSTOPPABLE JUGGERNAUT has repulsed a fourth insurgency from the two remaining not-Romneys, and one has to wonder how well THEIR coffers are doing. Ron Pauls seem to be doing just fine, and is still hammering away at anyone who threatens to unseat Romney as the frontrunner, seemingly unaware there is no prize for finishing second.Rick Santorum certainly seems to agree with that last part: http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/arizona-gop-debates-end-low-point/390691
So does Politico, apparently: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73424_Page3.html
Congratulations, Ron; a generation of marketing yourself as the only principled candid conservative in DC have ended by reducing yourself to a shill for the phoniest candidate to come out of DC in that generation. Latest polls who Santorum up by 11 on Romney in OH a week before the primary: Moneybombs, away....
If you enjoy wasting your time as much as I do you can track the delegate count here: http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates
Maybe instead of polls we should start POOLS on what date/state will clinch Romneys nomination; I only wish I had thought of that back on Christmas '08.