Most likely, but Tom is almost certainly right the economy will tell the tale. - Edit 1
Before modification by Joel at 29/02/2012 10:13:48 AM
Romney can't count on outspending Obama, and the Base that is in the process of nominating him is ambivalent towards him at best. We saw this before with John Kerry... simple hatred of an incumbent (like the left hated W.) is not enough to get a weak tea candidate elected.
A major hit to Obamas credibility/popularity could, too, though, and he came close with that idiotic needless contraceptive showdown. I know Obama Nation has convinced themselves that was a savvy PR coup, but it was really no more than Obama blowing the GOPs "Islamic terrorist sleeper cell" dog whistle for them.
It is a LOT like '04, but Obama has not shown he has the balls to swiftboat Romney like Bush did Kerry. The economy was a lot stronger then, too, (as horrifying as it is to say that, it is actually true.) Obama cannot get re-elected with "it is STILL all Bushs fault," and blaming Congress is also a lot more difficult since Romney has never been in Congress. Even if it works, he can just say, "yeah, Congress sucks; where was your last job again...?"
Meanwhile, moneybombing still works; despite advocating we drive the Big Three over a cliff and trailing Santorum by as much as 15 points in one poll last week (though I think we all knew that was an outlier,) Romney beat Santorum by just over 3 points yesterday, and CRUSHED him by 20 in AZ (he nearly won a majority; go, go Gadget-Mormonism.) He picked up 40 delegates, Santorum got 11 and no one else got any; Romney officially has 27 more pledged delegates than everyone else combined (and as the only other moderate or Mormon candidate, let alone both, it is more like 31 more, because he will ultimately get Huntsmans, too.)
It is officially over, but many people will not admit that for another week, and apparently Gingrich and Paul will not admit it even then. Maybe Paul thinks if he sucks up to Romney for the whole primary and picks off his far right challengers one by one he can get a VP spot out of it when Romney needs to shore up his far right credentials after nomination (because that worked sooo well for McCain.) If so, that just goes to show Ron Paul really IS insane.