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The problem with predictions that come true Vivien Send a noteboard - 19/12/2011 05:28:24 PM
Is that those are the only ones you remember. You do not remember all the other predictions you've made (or others have made) that do not come true. Survivorship bias, to put it mildly. It's only the guesses that hit the target that anyone makes note of. It is fun though to notice predictions after the fact.

I was despondent that Hitchens died, then Cesaria Evora, then Vaclav Havel. I posted on Facebook yesterday and said that God needed to kill a dictator to maintain the balance in the world. I named Khamenei, Kim Jong-il and Chavez.

Now, about 24 hours later, Kim Jong-il is dead.

The last time I said someone "needed to die" was with John Paul II, whom I did not like (I loved Paul VI and JP I). He died within the week, causing the people I was working with at the time to call me the "angel of death".

I have to say that the timing is once again uncanny...

Anyway, let's hope God has mercy on him, because he caused enough Hell for his people here on earth.
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Kim Jong-il is dead. Would you become a fervent believer? Tom - 19/12/2011 03:37:28 AM 1523 Views
If I was a Christian, I'd pray that he would burn forever in hell. Great Lord of Chaos - 19/12/2011 03:47:52 AM 935 Views
See, I can't be an atheist. Tom - 19/12/2011 03:53:55 AM 901 Views
I agree about atheism LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 04:19:02 AM 761 Views
It's an approximation. Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:40:05 PM 780 Views
no, I'm not saying that the sheer number of people alone is sufficient LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 10:13:09 PM 665 Views
Re: See, I can't be an atheist. Great Lord of Chaos - 19/12/2011 04:25:06 AM 755 Views
No, Pascal's Wager is stupid. Tim - 19/12/2011 03:09:42 PM 765 Views
You obviously misread my comments or ignored them. Tom - 19/12/2011 03:39:59 PM 748 Views
You're answering a different point to the one I was addressing. Tim - 19/12/2011 04:01:54 PM 686 Views
For atheism to be a tenable position, one must assume that millions lie about their experiences. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:11:53 AM 777 Views
Look, doesn't this go against your most sacred principle? jh - 20/12/2011 06:43:27 AM 741 Views
I'm pretty sure he's not saying it's undeniable proof. LadyLorraine - 20/12/2011 09:19:44 AM 703 Views
No, it doesn't. Tom - 20/12/2011 08:30:55 PM 667 Views
Re: No, it doesn't. jh - 20/12/2011 09:21:22 PM 709 Views
This militant atheism is somewhat amusing. Tom - 20/12/2011 09:48:57 PM 730 Views
... somewhat irrational at times too Isaac - 21/12/2011 01:22:54 AM 641 Views
Huh? snoopcester - 21/12/2011 10:47:06 AM 689 Views
That's somewhat unrelated to the intended point of the post Isaac - 21/12/2011 12:41:49 PM 696 Views
My "Huh?" was at your claim that any reasonable definition Kim Jong-il was a millitant athiest snoopcester - 21/12/2011 12:58:44 PM 686 Views
You're objecting to me calling the Military Dictator militant? Isaac - 21/12/2011 03:13:35 PM 726 Views
Is that the long way of saying you can't back up what you said? snoopcester - 21/12/2011 04:06:06 PM 652 Views
Okay Isaac - 21/12/2011 05:03:07 PM 749 Views
Your position isn't rational nor logical Helene - 20/12/2011 12:45:03 PM 714 Views
I never stated it was either. That's the problem with spiritual matters. Tom - 20/12/2011 08:43:46 PM 640 Views
How about a faith atheist? Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:28:59 PM 833 Views
Nevermind. It appears you answered that in your reply to Tim. *NM* Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:32:19 PM 406 Views
Re: See, I can't be an atheist. snoopcester - 19/12/2011 04:57:23 PM 788 Views
It's impossible to tell if worshipping a false god would be worse than worshipping no god at all. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:14:59 AM 601 Views
Sounds like you must be a modern-day prophet beetnemesis - 19/12/2011 05:24:24 PM 636 Views
Well, it's *possible* that he is. Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:49:34 PM 732 Views
Hah, fair enough beetnemesis - 19/12/2011 06:47:07 PM 682 Views
Idiocy. Confirmation bias doesn't explain away external phenomena. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:19:10 AM 760 Views
Well. Sareitha Sedai - 21/12/2011 01:49:36 PM 671 Views
I didn't forget about it. I was getting ready to give up on it. Tom - 21/12/2011 02:27:18 PM 664 Views
That doesn't really make sense. Sareitha Sedai - 21/12/2011 03:04:23 PM 565 Views
No, it does make perfect sense. Tom - 21/12/2011 06:17:02 PM 705 Views
Also, learn to use the subjunctive. It's "if I WERE a Christian..." Tom - 19/12/2011 03:54:20 AM 751 Views
The sad thing about that comment... Larry - 19/12/2011 04:52:57 AM 880 Views
I'm pretty sure there's plenty of middle ground between those two examples LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 05:31:13 PM 649 Views
Tom is right. Agnosticism is really the only rational posistion. Urza - 20/12/2011 04:17:08 AM 634 Views
Tom, I think this means you should take up ForEx trading. *NM* Urza - 19/12/2011 04:00:20 AM 356 Views
I might. I'm close enough to it as is. I just did some ForEx ISDAs for clients... Tom - 19/12/2011 04:03:11 AM 819 Views
I really am gonna miss Hitchens...a lot *NM* *NM* Roland00 - 19/12/2011 04:06:50 AM 352 Views
I will miss him, too...a lot. *NM* Tom - 19/12/2011 04:17:05 AM 334 Views
so, hypothetically...if I was to send you a list of people... LadyLorraine - 19/12/2011 04:25:47 AM 710 Views
Let's not try that. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:21:35 AM 667 Views
I'm so ronery 김정일 - 19/12/2011 06:36:38 AM 753 Views
I thought you were asking if I believed in KJ-I, the Eternal Leader Praziquantel - 19/12/2011 06:55:08 AM 658 Views
The article I just read said he died on Saturday. Rebekah - 19/12/2011 08:58:17 AM 730 Views
Yeah, he actually died on a train Saturday morning before Tom made the comment. *NM* TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:13:44 PM 300 Views
I'm not claiming causality. And, for the record, I first made the comment on Friday afternoon. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:25:07 AM 728 Views
You know what's really weird? Isaac - 19/12/2011 11:32:23 AM 728 Views
It has been there for 6 hours at this stage. Stephen - 19/12/2011 12:34:57 PM 799 Views
don't forget Mugabe (sp) Yunalesca - 19/12/2011 01:06:24 PM 632 Views
Zimbabwe basically is dust by now. *NM* Tim - 19/12/2011 02:52:51 PM 333 Views
They took it down, apparently. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:40:24 AM 313 Views
Not surprising, still in the revisions if anyone wants to see of course Isaac - 20/12/2011 11:06:05 AM 871 Views
Turns out Kim Jong really was il? snoopcester - 19/12/2011 12:10:15 PM 680 Views
all praise Madokami! *NM* Yunalesca - 19/12/2011 01:03:26 PM 401 Views
He's not dead-dead. Neither is his father. Just ask the North Koreans. Palatine - 19/12/2011 04:23:48 PM 711 Views
Re: He's not dead-dead. Neither is his father. Just ask the North Koreans. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:15:09 PM 632 Views
That happened to me too. Nate - 19/12/2011 09:45:48 PM 771 Views
Re: That happened to me too. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:48:36 PM 633 Views
Re: Legend Palatine - 20/12/2011 04:54:40 PM 646 Views
I wonder if they're going to embalm him? Tom - 20/12/2011 04:39:33 AM 582 Views
The problem with predictions that come true Vivien - 19/12/2011 05:28:24 PM 749 Views
I don't make a lot of predictions. *NM* Tom - 19/12/2011 08:18:53 PM 453 Views
Well you should start at least journaling the ones that you do make. Vivien - 19/12/2011 08:40:18 PM 699 Views
I actually now do tell my friends when I have dreams that have the "feel" to them. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:36:07 AM 772 Views
Just ones about old, sick guys dying? *NM* Sareitha Sedai - 19/12/2011 09:51:12 PM 301 Views
No, sadly. Tom - 20/12/2011 04:31:44 AM 580 Views
I can attest to the fact that this conversation took place on Facebook Saturday. TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:19:06 PM 672 Views
Yeah, I thought that reply seemed in the wrong place Isaac - 19/12/2011 09:28:17 PM 668 Views
Re: Yeah, I thought that reply seemed in the wrong place TaskmasterJack - 19/12/2011 09:31:00 PM 658 Views
Yes, TMJ, you also contributed in this case. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:38:42 AM 304 Views
I am not a dog to be petted! TaskmasterJack - 21/12/2011 02:42:55 AM 645 Views
HAHAHAHA!!!! *NM* Tom - 21/12/2011 05:31:06 AM 389 Views
Coincidentally, I found this site today kHz1000 - 19/12/2011 10:57:36 PM 690 Views
Oh, I liked that site. I found it a few years ago. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:37:04 AM 303 Views
Jeez, I hope I never get on your bad side ironclad - 20/12/2011 12:06:54 AM 598 Views
Things did change for the better with Stalin's death. Vivien - 20/12/2011 02:51:12 AM 712 Views
Not for Stalin *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 09:49:39 PM 364 Views
eh, you can't have everything Yunalesca - 20/12/2011 11:08:36 PM 596 Views
So I guess you want me to destroy the voodoo doll I have of you? Oh wait...never mind. *NM* Tom - 20/12/2011 04:37:35 AM 294 Views
Not to downplay your awesomely uncanny coincidence... Avendesora - 20/12/2011 01:19:33 PM 661 Views
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