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It kind of comes down to whether FTL is possible Isaac Send a noteboard - 30/09/2011 09:12:32 PM
My interpretation is that it's really unlikely for 2 civilization that are so advanced that they have interstellar travel *at the same time* and they're reasonably close physically and manage to stumble upon each other (or evidence of each other). Not impossible, but the odds are super low.


If we stick to what we know, speed of light as effective maximum, I agree entirely that two cultures are very unlikely to physically encounter each other, at least not as a matter of significance since they'd probably have bumped into each other's broadcasts way before that. Personally I assume that if there are aliens out there that are psychologically comprehensible and achieve and maintain foreseeable plausibble tech, they probably tend to know about most every race within the galaxy within a few years (minus signal lag) of them starting to use radios regularly, FM especially.

Not to say that all human life is destroyed after the blaze of glory thing, but that we're sent back to a more primitive state where we don't have the resources to spare for interstellar exploration. Not that we have those resources now! So it's also very difficult to get to the interstellar technology phase in the thin "blaze of glory" window. Before we put a man in space we got nuclear bombs so there's a lot of obstacles.


Well, the problem here is that while we've all read and watched plenty of seemingly plausible books and movies that have people falling back into the Dark Age, the idea of this happening for any prolonged time seems unlikely when you actually examine it. Albeit the Gilligan's Island view of constructing a radio from a coconut is absurd but barring some all-encompassing global taboo against tech it would be very hard to lose it once you have it. Newton or Da Vinci types, and plenty of lesser known and celebrated sorts, would not have a huge problem picking up a modern science text and reading it, and even a taboo would be rough since any group that didn't accept it would be in a wonderful position to economically, militarily, and cultural crush the opposition. So I don't think a culture would spend too long Dark age after collapsing, and in terms of keeping broadcast going. I don't know that a single person could realistically send to other planets as a hobby without the kinda resources available in a tech culture of our scale, but for example NASA transmission Beattle's music at Polaris was only at 20 kW and while you would need something as bigger than SKA to pick it up it's over 400 light years away, and that's only at 20 KW, in theory someone could power that up from a wood-fired generator in their own backyard. You don't really need the consent and assistance of your entire planet to do stuff like that, so I think even if we assume cultures flare out then drop back to some semi-Luddite level or cheerful solar/wind only population 1 billion or so I don't think they'd lack the resources or inclination, on average to keep an ear out or even give shout outs. One planet might, but unless its the norm it wouldn't matter.

But: regardless of my ramblings here, I'm really an optimist, especially in my reading. I love reading about humanity beating the odds and being capable of wondrous achievements. I definitely have a soft spot for 1950's style "we can do anything" science fiction a la A. E. van Vogt and Arthur C. Clarke. I really like the short story "Rescue Party" by Arthur C. Clarke. It's the first story he ever sold and apparently he doesn't like it that much anymore:


I generally like Clarke's stuff though it's a touch dry, Rendezvous with Rama and the 2001 books being his only stuff I've really read though I'm sure I've read that short story before, will have to read it tonight. But I do prefer the more optimistic sci-fi although Alastair Reynolds, in spite of the doom and gloom borderline horror flavor, is the current SF writer I think has the best realism in his work. Traditionally I'm Asimov, Herbert, Niven, Card, etc fan and tend to prefer the human-only stories just because I tend to find the aliens improbable caricatures.

The intuitive mind is a sacred gift and the rational mind is a faithful servant. We have created a society that honors the servant and has forgotten the gift.
- Albert Einstein

King of Cairhien 20-7-2
Chancellor of the Landsraad, Archduke of Is'Mod
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An interesting thought I had that may be worth discussion. - 29/09/2011 07:22:01 PM 741 Views
Well, Fermi Paradox discussions usually end with ???? - 29/09/2011 07:51:59 PM 419 Views
you do have to hope there's intelligent life somewhere out there - 29/09/2011 07:56:48 PM 475 Views
I definitely agree with the first part. - 29/09/2011 08:32:33 PM 570 Views
why do you think only those options would be available? - 29/09/2011 08:35:53 PM 422 Views
Could be cultural domination. - 29/09/2011 09:32:18 PM 439 Views
*shrug* Humans aren't that bad - 29/09/2011 09:51:32 PM 408 Views
Oh yes we are. - 29/09/2011 10:27:52 PM 431 Views
Unless their advancement is so great they are VERY ethically enlightened, her fears seem valid. - 30/09/2011 03:04:40 AM 486 Views
hmmm - 30/09/2011 02:34:47 PM 416 Views
"And hey. I'll eat most anything once." - 30/09/2011 07:22:01 PM 396 Views
I think I've met a few aliens... - 30/09/2011 01:31:55 AM 429 Views
Why do fossil fuels have to be involved? - 29/09/2011 08:33:26 PM 401 Views
Going into the fossil fuel vs wood thing - 29/09/2011 08:51:07 PM 497 Views
The big issue is energy density, IMHO. - 30/09/2011 02:53:39 AM 508 Views
That's so perfect. - 30/09/2011 06:43:31 AM 447 Views
We really have no idea how rare advance technologies societies are - 30/09/2011 02:00:56 PM 547 Views
That's a really good point. - 30/09/2011 04:34:28 PM 459 Views
The doomsdays options don't really hold up well though - 30/09/2011 05:22:57 PM 477 Views
I think we have different interpretations of "silence" - 30/09/2011 07:47:32 PM 577 Views
It kind of comes down to whether FTL is possible - 30/09/2011 09:12:32 PM 541 Views
hmmm - 30/09/2011 07:51:42 PM 333 Views
Yeah but that's just a variant of "Highly advanced aliens who for some reason are totally stupid" - 30/09/2011 10:21:34 PM 554 Views
I didn't mean to imply that were not talking to us because they looked down on us - 01/10/2011 01:07:02 AM 500 Views
Re: I didn't mean to imply that were not talking to us because they looked down on us - 01/10/2011 02:50:42 AM 496 Views
thanks for the detailed answer - 01/10/2011 03:08:48 PM 486 Views
No prob, hopefully it's not all inaccurate nonsense - 01/10/2011 03:18:05 PM 522 Views
not to mention that the universe is HUGE - 30/09/2011 07:53:33 PM 411 Views
True - 30/09/2011 10:37:58 PM 375 Views
of course I can't say, that was my point - 30/09/2011 07:42:55 PM 424 Views
I was totally agreeing with you until I wasn't. - 30/09/2011 08:09:08 PM 558 Views
That's pessimistic, though. The "blaze of glory" is ongoing. - 01/10/2011 04:25:28 AM 402 Views
another thing for consideration - 01/10/2011 11:55:12 AM 409 Views

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