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We really have no idea how rare advance technologies societies are random thoughts Send a noteboard - 30/09/2011 02:00:56 PM
We know that it took 4.2 billion years to get one on this almost ideal plant. I suspect that there is a narrow range of stability that is required to have more advance life. If you look at the record there was stable periods when millions of years passed with very little real change in life forms and then massive extinction events that jump started the next phase. It is probable that you need a stable enough system to allow complex ecosystems to evolve but not so stable that it stagnates into one giant but very efficient primordial ooze.

Even if you do manage to get advance life intelligence is expensive and until you create the technologies to go with it not very affective as a survival tool. What are the odds of a species evolving a preference for social skills to drive intelligence and hands (or other manipulators) to turn that intelligence into tools and drive even greater intelligence? The answer by the way is no one can really even make an educated guess.

Looking at the 400,000 year history of man the great a majority of that time was spent with bones and rocks being our primary tool and we have had advanced technology for only a blink of the eye. As far as we know the reason we don't see anyone else out there is that a species aggressive enough to advance this far is too aggressive to sustain it. Or maybe societies like ours either use up all the cheap energy in a flash and go out in a blaze fighting over what is left or they learn to control their populations, life small and stay at home and keep quite.

The long and short of it is that we have a data point of one so even if there are 15 trillion planets with life the odds of advanced society forming might well be be 1 in 30 trillion and we got lucky and beat the odds.
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An interesting thought I had that may be worth discussion. - 29/09/2011 07:22:01 PM 741 Views
Well, Fermi Paradox discussions usually end with ???? - 29/09/2011 07:51:59 PM 419 Views
you do have to hope there's intelligent life somewhere out there - 29/09/2011 07:56:48 PM 475 Views
I definitely agree with the first part. - 29/09/2011 08:32:33 PM 570 Views
why do you think only those options would be available? - 29/09/2011 08:35:53 PM 422 Views
Could be cultural domination. - 29/09/2011 09:32:18 PM 439 Views
*shrug* Humans aren't that bad - 29/09/2011 09:51:32 PM 407 Views
Oh yes we are. - 29/09/2011 10:27:52 PM 431 Views
Unless their advancement is so great they are VERY ethically enlightened, her fears seem valid. - 30/09/2011 03:04:40 AM 486 Views
hmmm - 30/09/2011 02:34:47 PM 416 Views
"And hey. I'll eat most anything once." - 30/09/2011 07:22:01 PM 396 Views
I think I've met a few aliens... - 30/09/2011 01:31:55 AM 428 Views
Why do fossil fuels have to be involved? - 29/09/2011 08:33:26 PM 401 Views
Going into the fossil fuel vs wood thing - 29/09/2011 08:51:07 PM 497 Views
The big issue is energy density, IMHO. - 30/09/2011 02:53:39 AM 508 Views
That's so perfect. - 30/09/2011 06:43:31 AM 447 Views
We really have no idea how rare advance technologies societies are - 30/09/2011 02:00:56 PM 547 Views
That's a really good point. - 30/09/2011 04:34:28 PM 459 Views
The doomsdays options don't really hold up well though - 30/09/2011 05:22:57 PM 476 Views
I think we have different interpretations of "silence" - 30/09/2011 07:47:32 PM 577 Views
It kind of comes down to whether FTL is possible - 30/09/2011 09:12:32 PM 540 Views
hmmm - 30/09/2011 07:51:42 PM 332 Views
Yeah but that's just a variant of "Highly advanced aliens who for some reason are totally stupid" - 30/09/2011 10:21:34 PM 553 Views
I didn't mean to imply that were not talking to us because they looked down on us - 01/10/2011 01:07:02 AM 499 Views
Re: I didn't mean to imply that were not talking to us because they looked down on us - 01/10/2011 02:50:42 AM 496 Views
thanks for the detailed answer - 01/10/2011 03:08:48 PM 485 Views
No prob, hopefully it's not all inaccurate nonsense - 01/10/2011 03:18:05 PM 522 Views
not to mention that the universe is HUGE - 30/09/2011 07:53:33 PM 411 Views
True - 30/09/2011 10:37:58 PM 374 Views
of course I can't say, that was my point - 30/09/2011 07:42:55 PM 424 Views
I was totally agreeing with you until I wasn't. - 30/09/2011 08:09:08 PM 558 Views
That's pessimistic, though. The "blaze of glory" is ongoing. - 01/10/2011 04:25:28 AM 402 Views
another thing for consideration - 01/10/2011 11:55:12 AM 409 Views

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