We really have no idea how rare advance technologies societies are
random thoughts Send a noteboard - 30/09/2011 02:00:56 PM
We know that it took 4.2 billion years to get one on this almost ideal plant. I suspect that there is a narrow range of stability that is required to have more advance life. If you look at the record there was stable periods when millions of years passed with very little real change in life forms and then massive extinction events that jump started the next phase. It is probable that you need a stable enough system to allow complex ecosystems to evolve but not so stable that it stagnates into one giant but very efficient primordial ooze.
Even if you do manage to get advance life intelligence is expensive and until you create the technologies to go with it not very affective as a survival tool. What are the odds of a species evolving a preference for social skills to drive intelligence and hands (or other manipulators) to turn that intelligence into tools and drive even greater intelligence? The answer by the way is no one can really even make an educated guess.
Looking at the 400,000 year history of man the great a majority of that time was spent with bones and rocks being our primary tool and we have had advanced technology for only a blink of the eye. As far as we know the reason we don't see anyone else out there is that a species aggressive enough to advance this far is too aggressive to sustain it. Or maybe societies like ours either use up all the cheap energy in a flash and go out in a blaze fighting over what is left or they learn to control their populations, life small and stay at home and keep quite.
The long and short of it is that we have a data point of one so even if there are 15 trillion planets with life the odds of advanced society forming might well be be 1 in 30 trillion and we got lucky and beat the odds.
Even if you do manage to get advance life intelligence is expensive and until you create the technologies to go with it not very affective as a survival tool. What are the odds of a species evolving a preference for social skills to drive intelligence and hands (or other manipulators) to turn that intelligence into tools and drive even greater intelligence? The answer by the way is no one can really even make an educated guess.
Looking at the 400,000 year history of man the great a majority of that time was spent with bones and rocks being our primary tool and we have had advanced technology for only a blink of the eye. As far as we know the reason we don't see anyone else out there is that a species aggressive enough to advance this far is too aggressive to sustain it. Or maybe societies like ours either use up all the cheap energy in a flash and go out in a blaze fighting over what is left or they learn to control their populations, life small and stay at home and keep quite.
The long and short of it is that we have a data point of one so even if there are 15 trillion planets with life the odds of advanced society forming might well be be 1 in 30 trillion and we got lucky and beat the odds.
An interesting thought I had that may be worth discussion.
29/09/2011 07:22:01 PM
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I definitely agree with the first part.
29/09/2011 08:32:33 PM
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why do you think only those options would be available?
29/09/2011 08:35:53 PM
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Well just look at the history of Earth. And the cultural/advancement disparity would be FAR greater. *NM*
29/09/2011 08:58:52 PM
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Could be cultural domination.
29/09/2011 09:32:18 PM
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In one particular space opera, it's a mix and probably the best situation possible for humans.
29/09/2011 10:21:42 PM
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Unless their advancement is so great they are VERY ethically enlightened, her fears seem valid.
30/09/2011 03:04:40 AM
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I think I've met a few aliens...
30/09/2011 01:31:55 AM
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Those know it all holier than thou all powerful vegan aliens are SO annoying.
30/09/2011 06:40:30 AM
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The big issue is energy density, IMHO.
30/09/2011 02:53:39 AM
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That's so perfect.
30/09/2011 06:43:31 AM
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I still agree with the view they are unlikley to intentionally punish us.
30/09/2011 09:35:13 AM
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We really have no idea how rare advance technologies societies are
30/09/2011 02:00:56 PM
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That's a really good point.
30/09/2011 04:34:28 PM
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The doomsdays options don't really hold up well though
30/09/2011 05:22:57 PM
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hmmm
30/09/2011 07:51:42 PM
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Yeah but that's just a variant of "Highly advanced aliens who for some reason are totally stupid"
30/09/2011 10:21:34 PM
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I didn't mean to imply that were not talking to us because they looked down on us
01/10/2011 01:07:02 AM
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Re: I didn't mean to imply that were not talking to us because they looked down on us
01/10/2011 02:50:42 AM
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of course I can't say, that was my point
30/09/2011 07:42:55 PM
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Re: If life formed, why might there not be fossil fuels equivalent to, or greater than, our own? *NM*
01/10/2011 03:16:23 AM
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