I'm more inclined toward his logic, but possibly toward your conclusions.
Joel Send a noteboard - 09/08/2011 12:45:46 AM
A truism is a statement of obvious fact; a tautology deceptively "compares" a thing to itself to "prove" an unsubstantiated proposition. One is just a formal declaration of something self evident; the other is disingenuous bootstrap levitation.
I think I understood the TO/IN in the way you explain it and your explanation sort of agrees with what LadyLorriane tried to say.
The tautology problem does not go away with your way of explaining it though, since you don't tell us how we "know" what individuals will be selected, before they are selected. Yes, taking in mind that we are dealing with probability, rather than with absolute numbers.
If a new individual is born, even when given all the possible information about it's DNA and it's environment, (and given that this individual does not have an obvious and gigantic disability), how would you determine it's "benefit in the environment" or it's "chances to procreate" before it actually happens? My point is that you can only measure that afterwards and if it can only be measured afterwards, it cannot be predicted or tested.
It can be tested, just not predicted; however, I'd wager most people would say the goal is a description rather than a prediction of the process. That is to say, not to identify which traits are most helpful to their possessors and document their growing prevalence as evidence of natural selection, but to document helpful traits enhancing survival and thereby predominating in future generations as evidence of natural selection. I think what we're dealing with is a truism rather than a tautology, and while the two are very similar, there are critical differences: A truism is a statement of undeniable fact, like "2+2=4"; a tautology is an equivalency masquerading as a comparison, like "2+2 resembles 4".
For this part I would like to refer to my latest responce to Belals Girl.
I'm not sure you understand the problem I have with a tautology (or a truism for that matter). If NS is a tautology, OR a truism doesn't matter for my argument. It is true. No problem. Of cource it is true and in fact, when stated in tautological or truistic form, I totally agree with NS.
The problem is that it does not explain anything, other than that it describes a pattern we observe in nature in a way that makes sense.
I don't think the concept of natural selection aspires to more than sensibly describing a pattern observed in nature. It defines a process without regard to its direction or any specific outcome.
Technically I could argue that this is on the edge of a discription of the proces of NS and the result of NS.
Maybe it's better to limit NS to the fact that some organisms survive and others don't and that a pattern of frequency can in some way be related (if only potential) to specific (genetic) traits. This causes a shift in the frequency of genes in the gene pool.
The fact we observe shifts in frequencies proves that nature has been selecting (given the fact that the science of statistics needs sufficient data to make such claims).
But when we say that NS = change (of the frequencies of genes) in the gene pool, while we can only determine NS by observing this change, then we have a tautology (or truism if you prefer). An observation. In fact, an observation that can not be "tested" since you can not predict how (or even that) the gene pool wil change.
Because it changes most of the time (if only a little) in most species we can "predict" that it wil change in any given species over several generations, but we already knew that.
And even if it does not change, we could postulate that there have been new traits, but that NS has prevented them from entering the gene pool.
Hence, NS cannot be falsified, since any observation can be explained by NS.
No, only observations consistent with natural selection can be explained by it; observations inconsistent with it cannot, and that's the test: If we observe the former natural selection is supported, if we observe the latter, it is not. Very falsifiable. Yes, natural selection equals a change in the frequency of a beneficial gene within a populace, thus observing that change is evidence of natural selection. That's a truism, but NOT a tautology. "Survival of the fittest" is a tautology because it pretends that the former is distinct from and the effect of the latter, and for that reason diguises the fact the phrase treats the terms as synonymous.
I've checked Wikipedia, but as far as I can tell this is still a tautology (notice your phrase "by definition"
, but it doesn't matter concerning my point.
It matters a great deal, because you seem to be dismissing anything and everything that would substantiate a proposition, on the grounds that evidence for it makes it a tautology.
Here you speak of "all evidence supports it", my whole point is that of cource all evidence supports it, since there is no way I can think of a test that would produce evidence that does not support it. Even when given a universe where all laws of nature are different and life being made of gold atoms and electrons in a shell of uranium, there is simply no way any test can ever produce evidence to the contrary. That's the problem.
The test you described in your response to BG is just such a test, because in case A and B we would see that organisms possessing a trait undeniably enhancing their own survivability nonetheless did NOT become more prevalent in the gene pool over time. Explaining that would be quite a challenge, but fortunately I'm not aware of anything that might present it.
A benefit TO the environment seems like going too far, because that statement itself is an entry into the philosophical, but an increased survival rate is a metric for benefits IN the environment: The greater survival of organisms with a certain trait in a certain environment over that of organisms without it suggests a natural, mechanical and non-directed selection for such traits generally. Without guidance, traits that help an organism in a given environment come to predominate over those that either don't help or even harm organisms, because organisms with helpful traits live longer and breed more than others. The scientific test of the theory is whether we can observe the results it predicts over time: If we do, that's evidence the theory is valid; if not, that's counterevidence (bearing in mind, as always, that evidence does not necessarily reach the level of conclusive proof).
That's just one laymans limited understanding though, so take it for what it's worth; there's a reason I didn't leap up to give my opinion.
That's just one laymans limited understanding though, so take it for what it's worth; there's a reason I didn't leap up to give my opinion.
I think I understood the TO/IN in the way you explain it and your explanation sort of agrees with what LadyLorriane tried to say.
The tautology problem does not go away with your way of explaining it though, since you don't tell us how we "know" what individuals will be selected, before they are selected. Yes, taking in mind that we are dealing with probability, rather than with absolute numbers.
If a new individual is born, even when given all the possible information about it's DNA and it's environment, (and given that this individual does not have an obvious and gigantic disability), how would you determine it's "benefit in the environment" or it's "chances to procreate" before it actually happens? My point is that you can only measure that afterwards and if it can only be measured afterwards, it cannot be predicted or tested.
It can be tested, just not predicted; however, I'd wager most people would say the goal is a description rather than a prediction of the process. That is to say, not to identify which traits are most helpful to their possessors and document their growing prevalence as evidence of natural selection, but to document helpful traits enhancing survival and thereby predominating in future generations as evidence of natural selection. I think what we're dealing with is a truism rather than a tautology, and while the two are very similar, there are critical differences: A truism is a statement of undeniable fact, like "2+2=4"; a tautology is an equivalency masquerading as a comparison, like "2+2 resembles 4".
For this part I would like to refer to my latest responce to Belals Girl.
I'm not sure you understand the problem I have with a tautology (or a truism for that matter). If NS is a tautology, OR a truism doesn't matter for my argument. It is true. No problem. Of cource it is true and in fact, when stated in tautological or truistic form, I totally agree with NS.
The problem is that it does not explain anything, other than that it describes a pattern we observe in nature in a way that makes sense.
I don't think the concept of natural selection aspires to more than sensibly describing a pattern observed in nature. It defines a process without regard to its direction or any specific outcome.
Natural selection, as I understand it, is the phenomenon of traits enhancing survival predominating over time as they become an increasingly large part of the gene pool, forcing out less useful traits.
Technically I could argue that this is on the edge of a discription of the proces of NS and the result of NS.
Maybe it's better to limit NS to the fact that some organisms survive and others don't and that a pattern of frequency can in some way be related (if only potential) to specific (genetic) traits. This causes a shift in the frequency of genes in the gene pool.
The fact we observe shifts in frequencies proves that nature has been selecting (given the fact that the science of statistics needs sufficient data to make such claims).
But when we say that NS = change (of the frequencies of genes) in the gene pool, while we can only determine NS by observing this change, then we have a tautology (or truism if you prefer). An observation. In fact, an observation that can not be "tested" since you can not predict how (or even that) the gene pool wil change.
Because it changes most of the time (if only a little) in most species we can "predict" that it wil change in any given species over several generations, but we already knew that.
And even if it does not change, we could postulate that there have been new traits, but that NS has prevented them from entering the gene pool.
Hence, NS cannot be falsified, since any observation can be explained by NS.
No, only observations consistent with natural selection can be explained by it; observations inconsistent with it cannot, and that's the test: If we observe the former natural selection is supported, if we observe the latter, it is not. Very falsifiable. Yes, natural selection equals a change in the frequency of a beneficial gene within a populace, thus observing that change is evidence of natural selection. That's a truism, but NOT a tautology. "Survival of the fittest" is a tautology because it pretends that the former is distinct from and the effect of the latter, and for that reason diguises the fact the phrase treats the terms as synonymous.
Organisms with traits enhancing survival are, by definition, more likely to survive and pass on those traits, and those without them are less likely; that's a truism, not a tautology.
I've checked Wikipedia, but as far as I can tell this is still a tautology (notice your phrase "by definition"
, but it doesn't matter concerning my point.It matters a great deal, because you seem to be dismissing anything and everything that would substantiate a proposition, on the grounds that evidence for it makes it a tautology.
Identifying such traits specifically is immaterial to verifying the occurrence of that process; in fact, the attempt can actually prejudice it because traits that might initially seem more beneficial can prove otherwise in practice. It's difficult to dispute the occurrence of natural selection as defined above, because it's what we would logically expect and all evidence supports it (again, it's important to note that's not automatically proof, just very compelling evidence). An independent opposing force would almost be required to PREVENT it.
Here you speak of "all evidence supports it", my whole point is that of cource all evidence supports it, since there is no way I can think of a test that would produce evidence that does not support it. Even when given a universe where all laws of nature are different and life being made of gold atoms and electrons in a shell of uranium, there is simply no way any test can ever produce evidence to the contrary. That's the problem.
The test you described in your response to BG is just such a test, because in case A and B we would see that organisms possessing a trait undeniably enhancing their own survivability nonetheless did NOT become more prevalent in the gene pool over time. Explaining that would be quite a challenge, but fortunately I'm not aware of anything that might present it.
Oke, the test I described.
You seem to suppose that I've objectively found a beneficial trait. But my question is: how would I know it is a beneficial trait? Is there any way I can prove that it is beneficial before I test NS the way I described?
If you know of a way to test this, then it is indeed falsifiable, if there is no way to test it's beneficiality other than by observing survivalrates (and thus assuming NS), then it is a tautology.
For example, a larger member of a given species may be more resistant to predation and thereby have a longer lifespan, but if the same trait also makes it sterile it's not really beneficial to the population. With regard to what's beneficial to populations, as I noted earlier, I think it's unwise and likely even counterproductive to say a given trait enhancing an individuals survival is also beneficial to the species until/unless it becomes more prevalent in successive generations. It's undeniable that traits enhancing species survival become more prevalent within that species over time, else no species could long survive. That makes it a truism, but not a tautology unless we treat that single phenomenon as two and make one the cause of "the other". In terms of producing a larger effect or having a specific goal (i.e. speciation) the situation is a lot murkier.
Maybe I've given an answer to your question in my responce to NightWalker. If not, be sure to let me know
I keep being reminded of the mythical erstwhile goal of American liberalism: Equality of opportunity, but not outcome. Natural selection ensures the hardiest traits come to predominate within a gene pool without specifying what those traits are. That doesn't make speciation a given, it simply makes perpetuation of each species more likely in general. Even that is subject to exceptions; a species that evolves during a long period of environmental stability might be wiped out by sudden and/or drastic environmental change, and the Chemical Revolution gives real cause to question whether complex life is really the order of the day. Many simple species like bacteria and insects adapted to environmentally persistent measures taken against them while our much longer life cycle and slower metabolism hid harmful effects on humans that we've only recently discovered.
Returning from the tangent, natural selection makes perfect sense to me as a non-tautological truism describing a process observed in nature. It would TEND to produce speciation as a special extended case, but proving that tendency inevitable would be hard for various reasons, among them the self-referential issue that warps the truism into a tautology. However, the principle that organisms with the hardiest traits will generally live longer, therefore breed more, therefore have more progeny with those same traits in successive generations, is practically undeniable. It's a self evident fact, which is what a truism is; it's not tautological unless we treat non sequiturs like genetic isolation as PART of the truism for the sake of "proving" them (for the record, genetic isolation has always seemed very problematic for me since it's counterproductive to perpetuating species).
Honorbound and honored to be Bonded to Mahtaliel Sedai
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
Last First in wotmania Chat
Slightly better than chocolate.
Love still can't be coerced.
Please Don't Eat the Newbies!
LoL. Be well, RAFOlk.
This message last edited by Joel on 09/08/2011 at 12:49:07 AM
Natural selection
- 06/08/2011 03:51:26 PM
992 Views
selection for suitability
- 06/08/2011 04:18:51 PM
643 Views
Thanks for your responce
- 06/08/2011 04:41:20 PM
762 Views
- 06/08/2011 04:41:20 PM
762 Views
I can't speak for LadyLorraine and won't try, but here's how I see it:
- 06/08/2011 06:49:49 PM
686 Views
Just a question
- 06/08/2011 07:18:09 PM
690 Views
Yes it can
- 06/08/2011 07:41:59 PM
571 Views
But how?
- 06/08/2011 07:52:10 PM
758 Views
Re: Just a question
- 06/08/2011 07:49:21 PM
780 Views
I'm not sure I understand you
- 06/08/2011 08:20:44 PM
669 Views
All tautologies are truisms, but not all truisms are tautologies.
- 06/08/2011 09:38:12 PM
698 Views
Then it is still a tautology
- 06/08/2011 09:45:33 PM
702 Views
You can know it's beneifical to a particular individual, but it's harder to say for populations.
- 06/08/2011 10:18:16 PM
799 Views
Maybe...
- 07/08/2011 01:55:54 PM
658 Views
I'm more inclined toward his logic, but possibly toward your conclusions.
- 09/08/2011 12:45:46 AM
741 Views
we can't really know ahead of time what makes a specific trait benefical in that environment
- 09/08/2011 06:16:02 PM
813 Views
As I understand it
- 06/08/2011 06:04:44 PM
634 Views
Better...
- 06/08/2011 06:36:38 PM
616 Views
Did you perhaps mean "beneficial in the environment" rather than "beneficial to the environment"?
- 06/08/2011 06:34:44 PM
755 Views
yes. I did not really phrase that very clearly. *NM*
- 09/08/2011 06:14:11 PM
299 Views
No biggy; from what Bram said, I underestimated how well you were understood anyway.
- 09/08/2011 06:45:16 PM
683 Views
Hmmm... there's some truth to that
- 06/08/2011 06:36:35 PM
704 Views
The complexity of the problem makes it all but impossible to falsify...
- 06/08/2011 08:26:06 PM
736 Views
The questions go deeper
- 06/08/2011 08:38:31 PM
737 Views
Re: The questions go deeper
- 06/08/2011 09:10:32 PM
713 Views
I think I know why you don't understand my question.
- 06/08/2011 09:38:41 PM
743 Views
How many equation's has Moraine screwed up? 
*NM*
- 06/08/2011 09:45:36 PM
306 Views
*NM*
- 06/08/2011 09:45:36 PM
306 Views
100% I think Moriaine is a very beneficial trait that contributes a lot to the RAFO pool *NM*
- 06/08/2011 09:46:54 PM
330 Views
*NM*
- 06/08/2011 09:46:54 PM
330 Views
Re: Natural selection
- 07/08/2011 03:00:30 AM
714 Views
Thanks a lot
- 07/08/2011 01:38:39 PM
858 Views
2 things
- 07/08/2011 04:00:35 PM
633 Views
Re: 2 things
- 07/08/2011 04:33:00 PM
843 Views
Re: 2 things
- 07/08/2011 05:48:26 PM
656 Views
My best guess
- 07/08/2011 06:00:28 PM
691 Views
Re: My best guess
- 07/08/2011 06:37:58 PM
626 Views
Re: My best guess
- 07/08/2011 06:47:26 PM
778 Views