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But how? Bramhodoulos Send a noteboard - 06/08/2011 07:52:10 PM
Even if you can only measure it after the fact, that doesn't mean it cannot be "predicted or tested."

You can't KNOW, or ACCURATELY predict ANYTHING that has never been tested before, but you can make predictions, do tests, and study the results. This would apply to determining whether a new trait is beneficial for a population of organisms as much as it would to anything else in science.


Let's say that a new trait has been found, or made in a lab and you want to determin whether it is beneficial for a population (that is what you propose).
Oke, well, let's test it.

How shall we proceed? Well, there are various ways, we could introduce this new trait to either a lab environment with other individuals who do not have this trait and see who survives, or we can "let it loose" (either a single organism, or a small population of organisms we let reproduce in the lab).

Next, what can we measure. Well, we can measure if that trait is still present in the test population after X number of generations, let math do it's work to determine how much generations we need and how many individuals we need to test in order to determine the frequency with a reasonable amount of certainty.

There are several scenario's possible, but lets just pick 3 possible outcomes.
A) the trait has disappeared
B) the trait does still occur, but at a low frequency, about the same frequency it was there at the start
C) the trait occurs in (almost) all individuals

In case A we conclude: the trait was not beneficial, when B we conclude that it was (near) neutral and when C we conclude that it was beneficial.

Fine, but that only works IF natural selection is true in the tautological form. So we have not tested or proven (or disproven) natural selection.
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