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Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". Dreaded Anomaly Send a noteboard - 14/06/2011 03:38:12 AM
In that case I humbly suggest avoiding such confusion by using distinct terms for distinct conceps. Regardless, it still seems premature to say MACHOs don't cause faster than predicted galactic rotation because they don't create the local gravitational lensing they would if homongeneously distributed at the "large scales" relevant to them. A heterogeneous distribution ought to be on the table, particularly if what every GUT but one predicts about conservation of baryon number proves valid. Regardless of THAT, homongeneous dark matter distribution at galactic scales, the only basis on which the article can be taken to rule out MACHOs, is never addressed BY the article, so it doesn't so much make as accept the case against MACHOs.


This is why having the basic context of the field is important. Taking even an introductory undergraduate astrophysics course would make it obvious that the scales involved are massively different.

The Bullet Cluster result (and other cluster collisions that have been observed since then, as I linked) looks much more like exotic dark matter then MACHOs. It's exactly what we would expect to see from exotic dark matter. Sean was writing a blog post on the topic, not a book. It's not his responsibility to detail the entirety of decades of work. If you want to see more in-depth explanations, go do some research.

Indeed, rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty. Somehow I doubt you're as indulgent with handwaving what's "still undetermined" about "known" supernatural phenomena. ;) He explicitly makes a statement very reminiscent of the conventional wisdom a century ago naught remained for physics save filling in the details of the comprehensively known science. That's the kind of hubris you keep insisting science has outgrown, but the article is rife with it, IMHO because until humanity outgrows such presumption it will persist in all our disciplines. THAT'S my evidence that he relentlessly sought out specific data to confirm his suppositions: He explicitly treats the composition of the universe itself as a settled matter, leaving room for no uncertainty except the nature of those detailed nature of those comprehensively known components. Each persons standard of "reasonable" doubt is unique (hence we have juries); I wouldn't want to say you and Dr. Carroll are "wrong" about a probability (particularly not of something you've largely convinced me is true), but I can't share the level of confidence ya'll apparently do, nor do I envy it.


He explicitly does not make such a statement, because he doesn't say it's all that's left, period; he says it's all that's left for the big discoveries of the past century, the known data, and makes no prediction that no further big discoveries will occur. The point is that we don't have current major results in astrophysics that we have no good idea about how to explain. "Settled" means low uncertainty, not no uncertainty.

Each persons standard of "reasonable" doubt is unique (hence we have juries); I wouldn't say you and Dr. Carroll are "wrong" about a probability (particularly not of something you've largely convinced me is true), but can't share the level of confidence ya'll apparently do, nor do I envy it. Much of what separates rigorous disciplined philosophies like science and law from fantasy is that they deal with what can be PROVEN rather than what is known. I agree that exotic dark matter is proven by a preponderance of evidence (though much of it is circumstantial), but can't go as far as proven beyond a reasonable doubt, and think it dangerous to strain at the edge of our leash on certainty only until unearthing a long and eagerly sought smoking gun proving the case we always knew to be valid. Investigators already convinced of something producing proof they "knew" existed CREATES reasonable doubt even among those otherwise inclined to believe them and the evidence, and I wouldn't want the Bullet Cluster to become dark matters bloody glove. Look what minor irregularities in Climategate did to Global Warming.


I'm still not clear on the distinction you're making between "preponderance of the evidence" and "beyond reasonable doubt."

"Climategate" happened due to politics, not science; it was a manufactured scandal. See the link for a thorough debunking of it.
The Fake Scandal of Climategate
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Exciting video about the universe - 28/04/2011 10:14:55 AM 1090 Views
Cool, and true *NM* - 28/04/2011 11:46:29 AM 331 Views
I still think dark matter's just non-luminous matter without a convenient light source to reflect. - 28/04/2011 10:34:21 PM 817 Views
We've just about ruled out the idea that dark matter is just non-luminous "ordinary" matter. - 28/04/2011 11:44:34 PM 748 Views
I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 29/04/2011 01:52:49 AM 680 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 29/04/2011 02:56:32 AM 792 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 30/04/2011 05:02:49 PM 748 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 30/04/2011 08:56:35 PM 619 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 02/05/2011 01:28:30 AM 653 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 04/05/2011 04:18:18 AM 758 Views
There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 07/05/2011 02:04:53 AM 829 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 09/05/2011 11:28:48 PM 673 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 14/05/2011 05:36:45 AM 618 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 17/05/2011 02:09:40 AM 707 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 19/05/2011 04:55:21 AM 627 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 24/05/2011 09:32:27 PM 705 Views
The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 24/05/2011 10:34:04 PM 647 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 24/05/2011 11:08:01 PM 855 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 25/05/2011 01:27:10 AM 667 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 31/05/2011 09:16:18 AM 736 Views
Also, re: lensing from ordinary matter: - 29/04/2011 05:18:47 AM 681 Views
This seems like another example of what confuses the issue. - 30/04/2011 05:25:04 PM 799 Views
Re: This seems like another example of what confuses the issue. - 30/04/2011 08:56:40 PM 770 Views
That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 02/05/2011 01:29:03 AM 763 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 04/05/2011 04:18:24 AM 725 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 07/05/2011 02:05:02 AM 901 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 09/05/2011 11:29:36 PM 667 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 14/05/2011 05:35:56 AM 950 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 17/05/2011 02:09:55 AM 574 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 19/05/2011 02:47:25 AM 914 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 24/05/2011 09:46:30 PM 699 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 25/05/2011 12:20:10 AM 981 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 31/05/2011 09:16:22 AM 798 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 10/06/2011 12:04:06 AM 1038 Views
Re: That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 14/06/2011 03:38:12 AM 804 Views
Re: I still think... (apparently, there is a 100 character limit on subjects, and yours was 99) - 28/04/2011 11:57:15 PM 998 Views
Seems to happen to me a lot; sorry. - 29/04/2011 12:56:14 AM 697 Views
None of this reflects on the actual facts of dark matter. - 29/04/2011 01:32:52 AM 662 Views
I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 30/04/2011 04:30:28 PM 780 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 30/04/2011 08:56:44 PM 613 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 02/05/2011 01:28:58 AM 1131 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 04/05/2011 04:18:27 AM 657 Views
I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 07/05/2011 02:05:09 AM 849 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 09/05/2011 11:32:17 PM 775 Views

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