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Apologies for the delay; internet's been spotty and I've been busy lately. Joel Send a noteboard - 10/06/2011 12:09:04 AM
Your point on the difference in the evidence for each is valid. You've convinced me that the evidence strongly supports exotic dark matter; I don't think it irrefutable, but no more convincing refutation exists, nor is it likely to emerge, which is a form of supporting evidence in itself. There's no evidence against it, which also helps immensely, and is something most GUTs only wish they could say. As long as they keep predicting proton decay at levels experiment proves impossible, Pati-Salam remains the best by default, and we may be approaching a point where simply warping the theory to allow longer lived protons won't be enough, because if the half-life is so high it CAN'T be experimentally detected (bearing in mind that an experiment that can't be replicated is worthless) even a valid GUT will have left the realm of science. With that in turn in mind the distinction of exotic dark matter and GUTs as equal classes of theories also seems valid, though it also means they both raise the same potential problem that invalidating any or all known theories can't invalidate the class unless it involves invalidating some necessary common attribute.

It's important to consider the difference between falsifiability and testability. Something is falsifiable if it makes a prediction that could be proven wrong in principle; it's testable if the prediction could be proven wrong in practice. Our current inability to make a measurement to the necessary degree of precision doesn't make a hypothesis unfalsifiable or "unscientific," but it does mean that we have to put it on the backburner until we can figure out a way to test it.

That's a valid and important distinction, but it still seems that anything that can't be examined is mere speculation rather than actual science. Otherwise anything from Flying Spaghetti Monsters to magic becomes a sound scientific hypothesis if it doesn't conflict with known facts and one simply dismisses the absence of confirming evidence as human and/or mechanical inadequacy. Pseudoscience subsists entirely by applying that logic to anecdotal evidence that defies controlled experiments, but I doubt your intent is to put dark matter in the same class as ESP and astral projection.
It may very well be that proton decay is just extremely suppressed, but if that's the case, it does seem like we'll have to find some more easily testable prediction coupled to the prediction of proton decay in order to be confident that it happens.

Yes, in general, we can only invalidate a class of theories by ruling out some attribute common to every theory in the class. I'm not sure why that's a problem, persay.

It's not a problem, as such, but it means simply eliminating all hypothesized examples of a given theory isn't enough to refute it, and that eliminating all hypothesized alternatives isn't enough to vindicate it. To use a convenient example, invalidating all known MACHO and modified gravity theories gives exotic dark matter no additional weight; there could still be a valid but undiscovered normal dark matter or modified gravity theory. Ultimately it's a good thing because it requires any theory to stand on its own rigorous merits, but it also complicates things because you can't establish the improbable as the truth simply be eliminating everything impossible.
I assume it goes without saying at this point that eliminating conservation of baryon numbers would put us back at square one on MACHOs. I'd really REALLY like to see a new GUT that doesn't require proton decay (or strong evidence for Pati-Salam in its entirety) because of the issue to which I keep returning on GUTs: Even if protons DO decay, if they do so so rarely that we can't observe a reproducible event we don't have a viable scientific theory. It would really suck to have the right theory about something so pivotal and no way to verify it, but that seems increasingly likely; if we need a neutrino detector the size of the Moon we're screwed. Meanwhile, theories that simply revise the half-lifes lower limit upward indefinitely unnervingly remind me of the particle zoo.

Eliminating conservation of baryon number doesn't necessarily put us back to square one on MACHOs; it depends on how much the conservation is violated.

It's a Boolean equation; either baryons are conserved or they aren't. However uncommon or unlikely their natural decay, if it occurs it occurs, and violating conservation of baryon number ceases to be an obstacle to MACHOs as well as to the various Pati-Salam alternative GUTs. It disqualifies both or neither.
Yes, a continual shifting of the goal posts is generally a troubling sign for a theory, although it's not always. Sometimes, it may be that the goal posts were initially set in a bad spot, and people are hesitant to move them too far in one fell swoop.

It's also wrecks credibility with perceptions of The Scientist Who Cried, "Wolf". Slow and steady wins the race, to conflate fables.
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Exciting video about the universe - 28/04/2011 10:14:55 AM 1090 Views
Cool, and true *NM* - 28/04/2011 11:46:29 AM 331 Views
I still think dark matter's just non-luminous matter without a convenient light source to reflect. - 28/04/2011 10:34:21 PM 817 Views
We've just about ruled out the idea that dark matter is just non-luminous "ordinary" matter. - 28/04/2011 11:44:34 PM 748 Views
I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 29/04/2011 01:52:49 AM 680 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 29/04/2011 02:56:32 AM 792 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 30/04/2011 05:02:49 PM 748 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 30/04/2011 08:56:35 PM 619 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 02/05/2011 01:28:30 AM 653 Views
Re: I'm aware of the Bullet Cluster, though admittedly not much more than that. - 04/05/2011 04:18:18 AM 757 Views
There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 07/05/2011 02:04:53 AM 829 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 09/05/2011 11:28:48 PM 673 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 14/05/2011 05:36:45 AM 617 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 17/05/2011 02:09:40 AM 707 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 19/05/2011 04:55:21 AM 627 Views
Re: There's such a thing as knowing when you're licked, and I believe I am. - 24/05/2011 09:32:27 PM 705 Views
The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 24/05/2011 10:34:04 PM 647 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 24/05/2011 11:08:01 PM 855 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 25/05/2011 01:27:10 AM 667 Views
Re: The Pati-Salam model was the one I had in mind. - 31/05/2011 09:16:18 AM 736 Views
Apologies for the delay; internet's been spotty and I've been busy lately. - 10/06/2011 12:09:04 AM 987 Views
Re: Apologies for the delay; internet's been spotty and I've been busy lately. - 14/06/2011 03:38:18 AM 989 Views
Also, re: lensing from ordinary matter: - 29/04/2011 05:18:47 AM 681 Views
This seems like another example of what confuses the issue. - 30/04/2011 05:25:04 PM 799 Views
Re: This seems like another example of what confuses the issue. - 30/04/2011 08:56:40 PM 770 Views
That discussion seems to reduce to "as little new and exotic physics as possible". - 02/05/2011 01:29:03 AM 763 Views
Re: I still think... (apparently, there is a 100 character limit on subjects, and yours was 99) - 28/04/2011 11:57:15 PM 997 Views
Seems to happen to me a lot; sorry. - 29/04/2011 12:56:14 AM 696 Views
None of this reflects on the actual facts of dark matter. - 29/04/2011 01:32:52 AM 662 Views
I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 30/04/2011 04:30:28 PM 780 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 30/04/2011 08:56:44 PM 613 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 02/05/2011 01:28:58 AM 1131 Views
Re: I concede my grasp (or grope) is a somewhat superficial laymans, yes. - 04/05/2011 04:18:27 AM 657 Views
I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 07/05/2011 02:05:09 AM 849 Views
Re: I don't object to changing my mind, but can take more convincing than I really should. - 09/05/2011 11:32:17 PM 775 Views

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