Well, considering the original conservative number has been proven drasticlly wrong. - Edit 1
Before modification by Libby at 03/06/2010 07:29:31 PM
You'll understand that I'm going to be a little skeptical about the "updated" conservative numbers out right now. Tom, are you a lawyer that does work with oil and gas companies? Cos if that's the case, this conversation is really going to get ugly. 
Actually the estimates that I hear the state department use are from the ICTY which is 10,000 or 2,788 depending on who you ask
Besides, We're not talking about the Kosovo war, stop comparing apples to oranges - it's the experts and those experience with the industry who are making these estimates on BP's disaster.
Media hyperbole is so prevalent and predictable that I rarely believe statistics that sound too high. The numbers you quoted sound far too high, and I've sat in enough board meetings for oil and gas companies (and worked with them generally for far too long) that I have an idea of these things.
Just as with media statistics on numbers of people killed by wars or natural disasters, the number usually ends up getting rounded down to between 10-20% of the numbers cited when the media are out to get ratings and make headlines. I remember when they said 100,000 people had been killed from ethnic cleansing in Kosovo "and the number could double as the truth comes out". The State Department at one point said "500,000 people are unaccounted for and we are afraid that they may have been murdered". Well, the realistic estimates are 1,500 deaths. Suspect estimates made which include heart attacks, elderly who died in refugee camps (who might have died even had they not moved, though I understand the case for counting them), etc. have projected around 12,000 deaths.
Just as with media statistics on numbers of people killed by wars or natural disasters, the number usually ends up getting rounded down to between 10-20% of the numbers cited when the media are out to get ratings and make headlines. I remember when they said 100,000 people had been killed from ethnic cleansing in Kosovo "and the number could double as the truth comes out". The State Department at one point said "500,000 people are unaccounted for and we are afraid that they may have been murdered". Well, the realistic estimates are 1,500 deaths. Suspect estimates made which include heart attacks, elderly who died in refugee camps (who might have died even had they not moved, though I understand the case for counting them), etc. have projected around 12,000 deaths.
Actually the estimates that I hear the state department use are from the ICTY which is 10,000 or 2,788 depending on who you ask
Besides, We're not talking about the Kosovo war, stop comparing apples to oranges - it's the experts and those experience with the industry who are making these estimates on BP's disaster.