Active Users:1151 Time:23/11/2024 12:26:15 AM
Yes, that is the danger. Libby Send a noteboard - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM
The biggest question is really what does North Korea see as crossing the Rubicon. I do believe there some obvious red lines that even North Korea won't cross, initially firing artillery or missiles at Seoul or crossing the DMZ toward the south - because those actions will blatantly lead to all out conflict.

A manufactured crisis only remains a crisis for a while; the longer the situation drags on the closer it comes to becoming just a new status quo. If the North must continually increase the pressure just to manufacture a "new" crisis, at some point it will reach a point where the regime must go to war or collapse.


That's true, although I don't feel the regime has any fear of collapse as long as they have guaranteed aid coming from China. And China won't cut off aid because of fear the regime would collapse.

Additionally, the closer each "crisis" comes to actual war, the greater the chance of accidentally starting a full war - someone shoots a gun, artillery is fired in response, leading to return fire, then a natural escalation...


That's why I feel it's important that we need to look at this situation calmly and plan our moves accordingly. As I said, this can easily slip from one's control. I do feel all regimes, no matter how bat-shit crazy and eccentric, have a strong self-preservation streak. After all, if they didn't care about their survival, they wouldn't last very long.
Reply to message
Oh, by the way...has anyone noticed how close the Korean peninsula is to war? - 24/05/2010 02:04:12 PM 991 Views
I was wondering when something would be posted about this - 24/05/2010 02:49:54 PM 688 Views
haha. I love that mental image - 24/05/2010 02:51:53 PM 609 Views
But does North Korea really listen to China that much anymore? - 24/05/2010 02:55:04 PM 625 Views
that might well be a good point - 24/05/2010 03:20:32 PM 584 Views
Very interesting point. That is a wild card. *NM* - 24/05/2010 03:27:53 PM 215 Views
The explaination I have heard... - 24/05/2010 09:05:40 PM 652 Views
I don't know... - 24/05/2010 09:49:25 PM 547 Views
No, because China doesn't want us in the region. - 25/05/2010 12:20:47 AM 592 Views
Um, wasn't that pretty much always understood? - 25/05/2010 12:08:12 AM 556 Views
yah, it doesn't look to be a good situation - 24/05/2010 02:50:08 PM 602 Views
If there were a war with North Korea the US has the resources to deal with it. - 24/05/2010 02:56:39 PM 622 Views
mm. well I don't much like that either, to be honest. - 24/05/2010 03:00:29 PM 608 Views
Wikipedia is your friend. - 24/05/2010 03:08:33 PM 773 Views
ah mk. Thanks!! - 24/05/2010 04:39:49 PM 562 Views
Still scary and you know that using those would escalate everything. - 24/05/2010 03:26:12 PM 574 Views
Korea is directly in our sphere of influence - 24/05/2010 03:37:18 PM 519 Views
I meant "we" in a personal sense, not a national sense. - 24/05/2010 05:36:40 PM 668 Views
In a personal sense, we could hijack a nuclear silo and shoot an ICBM at Pyongyang. - 24/05/2010 05:50:52 PM 507 Views
Oh yuck - there are far better ways. - 24/05/2010 06:01:44 PM 542 Views
yah... - 24/05/2010 06:27:37 PM 578 Views
Re: yah... - 24/05/2010 06:34:13 PM 554 Views
That would totally blow my cover of being a nerdy little grandma. - 24/05/2010 09:37:28 PM 526 Views
I don't think the US could, if China decided to get involved - 24/05/2010 08:45:23 PM 509 Views
A part of me says just get it over with - 24/05/2010 03:21:06 PM 516 Views
I agree that if war is inevitable, it is much better to start it at a time of our choosing. - 24/05/2010 03:48:36 PM 662 Views
I agree - 24/05/2010 04:17:19 PM 671 Views
Pretty much agree with all of that. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:17:27 PM 242 Views
I'm trying not to. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:25:06 PM 214 Views
This. *NM* - 24/05/2010 05:28:20 PM 236 Views
I understand - 24/05/2010 06:00:09 PM 512 Views
Yes - 24/05/2010 06:05:25 PM 525 Views
i agree - 24/05/2010 06:28:37 PM 551 Views
This has disaster written all over it *NM* - 24/05/2010 08:39:37 PM 228 Views
Technically, weren't we always? - 24/05/2010 08:51:29 PM 518 Views
Exactly. - 25/05/2010 12:07:32 AM 573 Views
I try to block it out with thought's of a puppet singing "I'm So Ronery". *NM* - 24/05/2010 10:59:23 PM 230 Views
No one wants to resume the Korean War. - 24/05/2010 11:27:12 PM 630 Views
China does. - 25/05/2010 12:29:11 AM 581 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 12:54:49 AM 610 Views
Well, it would be more accurate to say they want a conflict, yes. - 25/05/2010 01:15:23 AM 605 Views
No, they don't - 25/05/2010 01:24:17 AM 592 Views
North Korea is not acting suicidal? Are you kidding? - 25/05/2010 02:41:29 AM 568 Views
The internal political dynamic in North Korea is such that they constantly need a crisis. - 25/05/2010 03:03:59 AM 585 Views
You are missing the main point. - 25/05/2010 03:36:37 AM 623 Views
I'm not saying it's nothing new. - 25/05/2010 03:57:40 AM 599 Views
Your response highlights the ultimate problem: the crisis will have to keep getting bigger. - 25/05/2010 07:44:19 PM 532 Views
Yes, that is the danger. - 26/05/2010 09:04:36 PM 679 Views
Fair enough. I misunderstood your position before. - 26/05/2010 12:31:52 AM 558 Views

Reply to Message