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I thought you knew that I'm a moderator on Westeros.org, that I've met GRRM several times and interviwed him live on stage in front of hundreds of people. Read the damn book? I read ADWD a month before it came out, and my name's in the damn dedications at the front

For your information, this is a pretty popular and widely-held theory. There are some objections to it, which you have identified, but it's also got a fair bit of support (including from some people who know a lot more about what's coming up than I do).

Okay, that's a possible interpretation of the stuff in there, but outside knowledge aside, we don't KNOW that stuff from the text, which was, IIRC, the original intent of the post. I don't see how you can assemble an evidence chain without a lot of assumptions built upon other assumptions, a lot of which seems to contradict how characters act & react to various situations and each other.

I mean, R+L=J has a lot of support, without one word of direct or indirect confirmation in the books, because we can look at the characterization and known facts and how they support the theory.

If George Martin told you Brandon was an asshole, or confirmed that he raped Ashara, that's one thing. That's kind of a stretch to extrapolate from the text, which I pointed out differed slightly from what you said it contained.